Scenario-based planning for tourism development using system dynamic modelling: a case study of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam

Article

Mai, Thanh and Smith, Carl. 2018. "Scenario-based planning for tourism development using system dynamic modelling: a case study of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam." Tourism Management: research, policies, practice. 68, pp. 336-354. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.04.005
Article Title

Scenario-based planning for tourism development using system dynamic modelling: a case study of Cat Ba Island, Vietnam

ERA Journal ID19693
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsMai, Thanh (Author) and Smith, Carl (Author)
Journal TitleTourism Management: research, policies, practice
Journal Citation68, pp. 336-354
Number of Pages19
Year2018
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN0261-5177
1879-3193
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.04.005
Web Address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261517718300803
Abstract

Tourism destinations are dynamically complex systems in which behaviour is controlled by many interacting components and feedback loops. Yet tourism destination planning has traditionally been based on forecasting models that rely on historical data to predict future trends.

We exploresystem dynamic modelling as an alternative to forecasting models for the scenario-based planning of tourism destinations. We construct a system dynamic model for tourism development on Cat Ba Island, a rapidly developing tourist destination in Vietnam, and use it to model alternative tourism development scenarios.

Our results indicate that the current trajectory of tourism development on Cat Ba Island is not sustainable and limits to growth may be reached as early as 2022 due to water shortages, pollution and overcrowding. Beyond thistimethedestinationrisksbreachingitslimitstogrowth,whichcreatesafurtherrisk,thatoferodingcarrying capacity through resource depletion and environmental degradation.

Keywordsscenario planning, system dynamic modelling, sustainable tourism, decision making
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020350803. Tourism management
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Byline AffiliationsInternational Centre for Applied Climate Science
University of Queensland
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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