Post-COVID-19 recovery and resilience in passenger and cargo traffic: A Bayesian vector autoregressive analysis of India’s top 10 busiest airports

Article

Jayathilakan, Ajai, Ngo, Thanh, Tsui, Wai Hong Kan, Redmayne, Nives Botica, Balli, Faruk and Fu, Xiaowen. 2026. "Post-COVID-19 recovery and resilience in passenger and cargo traffic: A Bayesian vector autoregressive analysis of India’s top 10 busiest airports." Case Studies of Transport Policy. 23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101736
Article Title

Post-COVID-19 recovery and resilience in passenger and cargo traffic: A Bayesian vector autoregressive analysis of India’s top 10 busiest airports

Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsJayathilakan, Ajai, Ngo, Thanh, Tsui, Wai Hong Kan, Redmayne, Nives Botica, Balli, Faruk and Fu, Xiaowen
Journal TitleCase Studies of Transport Policy
Journal Citation23
Article Number101736
Number of Pages16
Year2026
PublisherElsevier
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN2213-624X
2213-6258
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2026.101736
Web Address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213624X26000325
Abstract

This study examines the post-COVID-19 resilience of India’s ten busiest airports using passenger and cargo traffic data from 2016 to 2024. A Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) model generates counterfactual forecasts, enabling a comparative assessment to classify airports as outperformers, forecast achievers, or underperformers. Beyond performance categorisation, the study investigates the role of airport infrastructure in shaping resilience outcomes through Spearman correlation and ordered logistic regression (OLOGIT) analysis. Results indicate that infrastructure attributes such as cargo terminal availability, runway capacity, and metro connectivity are significantly associated with higher resilience. Airports with stronger and more adaptive infrastructure recovered more effectively from pandemic disruptions. These findings offer actionable insights for infrastructure planning, crisis preparedness, and long-term policy strategies aligned with national initiatives such as the UDAN regional connectivity scheme.

KeywordsCOVID-19 recovery; Airport resilience; Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR); Airport infrastructure; Passenger and cargo traffic
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020350999. Transportation, logistics and supply chains not elsewhere classified
Byline AffiliationsMassey University, New Zealand
VNU University of Economics and Business, Viet Nam
School of Business, Law, Humanities and Pathways - Business
Western Caspian University, Azerbaijan
Hong Kong Polytechnic University, China
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/10128y/post-covid-19-recovery-and-resilience-in-passenger-and-cargo-traffic-a-bayesian-vector-autoregressive-analysis-of-india-s-top-10-busiest-airports

Log in to edit

Download files

Published Version
1-s2.0-S2213624X26000325-main.pdf
License: CC BY 4.0
File access level: Anyone

  • 9
    total views
  • 1
    total downloads
  • 9
    views this month
  • 1
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Impact of low-cost carrier exit on tourism revenues
He, Yulu, Wu, Hanjun, Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, Wang, Kun and Fu, Xiaowen. 2026. "Impact of low-cost carrier exit on tourism revenues." Annals of Tourism Research. 116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2025.104071
How do board governance and operational management affect carbon emissions among full-service and low-cost carriers?
Wang, Huan, Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, Wang, Qingxia Jenny, Wu, Hanjun, Fu, Xiaowen and Hu, Fan. 2025. "How do board governance and operational management affect carbon emissions among full-service and low-cost carriers?" Journal of Cleaner Production. 529. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2025.146785
Passengers’ acceptance of biometric check-in kiosks: The case of Thai airports
Wongya, Phutawan Ho, Ngo, Thanh, Wu, Hanjun and Tsui, Kan Wai Hong. 2025. "Passengers’ acceptance of biometric check-in kiosks: The case of Thai airports ." Tourism and Hospitality Research: the Surrey quarterly review. https://doi.org/10.1177/14673584251385493
Aviation industry growth in a landlocked developing country: The case of Mongolia
Erdenetsogt, Odbayar, Fu, Xiaowen, Wu, Hanjun and Tsui, Kan Wai Hong. 2025. "Aviation industry growth in a landlocked developing country: The case of Mongolia." Case Studies on Transport Policy. 21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101550
House Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Impact of "Panic" Returnees Migrants to New Zealand
Ngo, Thanh, Wu, Hanjun, Tsui, Kan, Squires, Graham and Wang, Xueqi. 2025. "House Prices during the COVID-19 Pandemic: The Impact of "Panic" Returnees Migrants to New Zealand." International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis. 18 (7), pp. 24-45. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-03-2025-0055
Investigating aviation subsidy scheme's impact on domestic aviation during the post-lockdown period: a case study of New Zealand
Wu, Hanjun, Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, Ngo, Thanh and Lin, Yi-Hsin. 2025. "Investigating aviation subsidy scheme's impact on domestic aviation during the post-lockdown period: a case study of New Zealand." Case Studies on Transport Policy. 20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2025.101405
Behind Market Size: Understanding the Absence of Giant Low-Cost Carriers in Asia Pacific
Wang, Huan, Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, Wang, Xuecheng, Zhan, Fen and Liu, Yan. 2025. "Behind Market Size: Understanding the Absence of Giant Low-Cost Carriers in Asia Pacific." Journal of the Air Transport Research Society. 4. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jatrs.2025.100061
Analyzing Air Passenger Flows between New Zealand's Small Regions and Australia - A Gravity Model
Flatley, Tobias, Tsui, Kan Wai Hong and Ngo, Thanh. 2025. "Analyzing Air Passenger Flows between New Zealand's Small Regions and Australia - A Gravity Model." Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy. 16 (1). https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793993325500024
External environments and the growth of low-cost carriers in the Asia-Pacific region: A systematic review and future research agendas
Wang, Huan, Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, Wu, Hanjun, Fu, Xiaowen and Wang, Xuecheng. 2025. "External environments and the growth of low-cost carriers in the Asia-Pacific region: A systematic review and future research agendas." Research in Transportation Economics. 109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2024.101515
Gravity models of airfreight exports during the pre-COVID era: Evidence from New Zealand
Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, Wang, Huan and Liu, Yan. 2025. "Gravity models of airfreight exports during the pre-COVID era: Evidence from New Zealand ." Case Studies of Transport Policy. 19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101336
Aviation pollution, tourism, and economic development: A study of the EKC hypothesis at regional level
Ngo, Thanh, Tsui, Wai Hong Kan and Nguyen, Hannah. 2024. "Aviation pollution, tourism, and economic development: A study of the EKC hypothesis at regional level." Economy of Regions. 20 (3), pp. 718-731. https://doi.org/10.17059/ekon.reg.2024-3-8
Impacts of low-cost carriers' development in the Asia-Pacific region on tourism, economic and social wellbeing: A systemic review
Wang, Huan, Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, Wu, Hanjun, Fu, Xiaowen and Kille, Tarryn. 2024. "Impacts of low-cost carriers' development in the Asia-Pacific region on tourism, economic and social wellbeing: A systemic review." Current Issues in Tourism. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2024.2413669
Exploring the red tourism–aviation nexus through the PVAR model: The case of China during the COVID-19 pandemic
He, Hang, Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, Wu, Hanjun and Lin, Long. 2024. "Exploring the red tourism–aviation nexus through the PVAR model: The case of China during the COVID-19 pandemic ." Case Studies on Transport Policy. 18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101288
The Nature of Airport Brand Associations
Henderson, Isaac Levi, Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, Ngo, Thanh, Gilbey, Andrew and Avis, Mark. 2024. "The Nature of Airport Brand Associations ." Tourism and Hospitality. 5 (3), pp. 592-624. https://doi.org/10.3390/tourhosp5030036
Spatiotemporal evolution of air cargo networks and its impact on economic development - An analysis of China's domestic market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic
He, Hang, Wu, Hanjun, Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, Wang, Biao and Fu, Xiaowen. 2024. "Spatiotemporal evolution of air cargo networks and its impact on economic development - An analysis of China's domestic market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic." Journal of Transport Geography. 117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2024.103872
Aviation subsidy policy and regional wellbeing: Important indicators from relevant stakeholders’ perspectives
Wu, Hanjun, Lin, Yi-Hsin, Ngo, Thanh Ngo and Tsui, Kan Wai Hong. 2024. "Aviation subsidy policy and regional wellbeing: Important indicators from relevant stakeholders’ perspectives." Case Studies on Transport Policy. 16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2024.101181
Aviation resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study of the European aviation market
Su, Junbiao, Wu, Hanjun, Tsui, Kan Wai Hong, Fu, Xiaowen and Lei, Zheng. 2023. "Aviation resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study of the European aviation market." Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 77, p. 103838. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2023.103835
Compound brands and multi-creation of brand associations: Evidence from airports and shopping malls
Henderson, Isaac Levi, Avis, Mark, Tsui, Wai Hong Kan, Ngo, Thanh and Gilbey, Andrew. 2023. "Compound brands and multi-creation of brand associations: Evidence from airports and shopping malls." Sustainability. 15 (2). https://doi.org/10.3390/su15021450
Analyzing factors affecting charter flight service demand: A case of Taiwan
Wu, Chuntao, Xue, Wenjing and Tsui, Kan Wai Hong. 2023. "Analyzing factors affecting charter flight service demand: A case of Taiwan." Journal of Air Transport Management. 110, p. 102424. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2023.102424
Changes in perceptions of airport services’ attributes: An assessment of the impacts of COVID-19
Lin, Yi-Hsin, Wu, Hanjun, He, Hang and Tsui, Kan Wai Hong. 2023. "Changes in perceptions of airport services’ attributes: An assessment of the impacts of COVID-19." Transport Policy. 114, pp. 116-128. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2023.07.013
Airport subsidies and domestic tourism in China
Wing, Clement Kong, Tsui, Wai Hong Kan and Wu, Hanjun. 2021. "Airport subsidies and domestic tourism in China." Annals of Tourism Research. 90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2021.103275
Capturing effects of container location dispersion on quay crane performance
Yu, Hang, Ge, Ying-En, Fu, Xiaowen, Huang, Youfang, Zhang, Yahua and Tan, Caimao. 2018. "Capturing effects of container location dispersion on quay crane performance." Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers: Maritime Engineering. 171 (1), pp. 25-39. https://doi.org/10.1680/jmaen.2017.21
Entry pattern of low-cost carriers in New Zealand – The impact of domestic and trans-Tasman market
Wang, Kun, Tsui, Wai Hong Kan, Li, Lan-Bing, Lei, Zheng and Fu, Xiaowen. 2020. "Entry pattern of low-cost carriers in New Zealand – The impact of domestic and trans-Tasman market." Transport Policy. 93, pp. 36-45. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2020.04.020
Pricing dynamics between airline groups with dual-brand services: the case of the Australian domestic market
Zhang, Yahua, Sampaio, Breno, Fu, Xiaowen and Huang, Zhibin. 2018. "Pricing dynamics between airline groups with dual-brand services: the case of the Australian domestic market." Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 112, pp. 46-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2018.01.006
Air transport services in regional Australia: demand pattern, frequency choice and airport entry
Zhang, Yahua, Wang, Kun and Fu, Xiaowen. 2017. "Air transport services in regional Australia: demand pattern, frequency choice and airport entry." Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice. 103, pp. 472-489. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2017.05.028