Seasonal climate forecasts and decision support systems for drought prone agriculture: a case study based on the development and application of the Rainman climate analysis software
Edited book (chapter)
Chapter Title | Seasonal climate forecasts and decision support systems for drought prone agriculture: a case study based on the development and application of the Rainman climate analysis software |
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Book Chapter Category | Edited book (chapter) |
ERA Publisher ID | 3572 |
Book Title | Coping against El Nino for stabilizing rainfed agriculture: lessons from Asia and the Pacific |
Authors | |
Author | Clewett, J. F. |
Editors | Yokoyama, S. and Concepcion, R. N. |
Page Range | 37-55 |
Series | CGPRT Centre Monograph 43 |
Number of Pages | 19 |
Year | 2003 |
Publisher | United Nations |
United Nations Publications | |
Place of Publication | CGPRT Centre, Bogor, Indonesia |
ISBN | 9799317231 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.scribd.com/document/244337266/Coping-Against-El-Nino |
Abstract | This paper considers the role of decision support systems to apply seasonal climate information in agriculture by documenting the development and application of the Australian Rainman computer package as a case study. Rainman aims to develop knowledge and skills for managing climate variability in agriculture by analysing effects of the El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on rainfall to derive probability-based seasonal climate forecasts. The two main seasonal forecast tools used in Rainman are the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and an index of Sea Surface Temperature (SST). The Rainman version 4 prototype is due for release and has improved seasonal forecast analyses and capacity for world-wide mapping of seasonal rainfall information at district and regional scales. There has also been interest in applying seasonal forecast technology to water supplies and irrigation systems and has led to developing the StreamFlow supplement for analysis of streamflow and run-off data. A central principle used in developing Rainman has been to include only seasonal forecast methods that have been well established and accepted by the scientific community and national organisations with responsibility in seasonal climate forecasting. Thus, the participative process to define and review Rainman has been an important element in the development of Rainman as a decision support product. Peer review is a necessary part of the quality assurance process in developing decision support systems. In communicating knowledge of risk we have found that cumulative probability distributions work well for scientists. However, in communicating with the farming community, other ways of expressing risk have been more effective such as frequency plots, pie charts, box plots and time series. Rainman analyses follow accepted scientific conventions by applying several statistical tests to seasonal forecasts so that: (a) users have some guidance regarding the statistical reliability of the forecast information, and (b) duty of care is discharged in providing forecast information to users. |
Keywords | Rainman StreamFlow, climate variability, seasonal forecasts, ENSO, El Nino Southern Oscillation, managing climate risk |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 469999. Other information and computing sciences not elsewhere classified |
410403. Environmental education and extension | |
300299. Agriculture, land and farm management not elsewhere classified | |
370202. Climatology | |
Public Notes | Clewett, J. F. (2003) Seasonal climate forecasts and decision support systems for drought prone agriculture: a case study based on the development and application of the Rainman climate analysis software. In: Coping against El Nino for stabilizing rainfed agriculture: lessons from Asia and the Pacific. CGPRT Centre Monograph 43. United Nations, CGPRT Centre, Bogor, Indonesia, pp. 37-55. ISBN 979-9317-23-1. ©(2003) United Nations. Reprinted with the permission of the United Nations. |
Byline Affiliations | Department of Primary Industries, Queensland |
Event | Coping against El Niño for Stabilizing Rainfed Agriculture: Lessons from Asia and the Pacific, United Nations, CGPRT Centre Monograph 43, pp 37-55 |
Journal Title | United Nations CGPRT Centre Monograph |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
Event Details | Coping against El Niño for Stabilizing Rainfed Agriculture: Lessons from Asia and the Pacific, United Nations, CGPRT Centre Monograph 43, pp 37-55 Event Date 17 to end of 19 Sep 2002 Event Location Cebu, Philippines |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q4x9y/seasonal-climate-forecasts-and-decision-support-systems-for-drought-prone-agriculture-a-case-study-based-on-the-development-and-application-of-the-rainman-climate-analysis-software
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