El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought

Paper

Cobon, D. H., Unganai, L. S. and Clewett, J. F.. 2003. "El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought." Allsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J. (ed.) 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium . Durban, South Africa 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2003 Durban, South Africa.
Paper/Presentation Title

El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought

Presentation TypePaper
AuthorsCobon, D. H. (Author), Unganai, L. S. (Author) and Clewett, J. F. (Author)
EditorsAllsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J.
Journal or Proceedings TitleProceedings of the 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003
Journal Citation7, pp. 1065-1068
Number of Pages4
Year2003
Place of PublicationDurban, South Africa
ISBN0958453489
Conference/Event7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium
Event Details
7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium
Event Date
26 Jul 2003 to end of 01 Aug 2003
Event Location
Durban, South Africa
Abstract

Drought is the single most important natural disaster affecting some parts of southern Africa virtually every year. Because of the region's heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture, drought is usually associated with widespread crop failure, livestock deaths, environmental degradation, famine and socio-economic stress. Reliable seasonal rainfall forecasts could lead to proactive drought mitigation strategies. In this study, the utility of probabilistic seasonal forecasts was examined in terms of forecast skill and timeliness for decision making. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) in spring was a useful indicator of summer rainfall (Nov-Mar) for c. 50% of stations in southern Africa and of drier than normal conditions for c. 20% of stations. The SOI average would have been useful to forecast severe droughts in parts of southern Africa between 1930 and 1992. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal was greatest in central South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Kenya. Forecast lead-times were 0-2 months, which was considered adequate for decision making by communal farmers - provided the forecasts were relevant and tailored for the local area. The climate analysis package Rainman International with international data is a useful forecasting tool on subcontinental and local scales. Training of agricultural extension officers in the use of climate analysis software like Rainman International is necessary to ensure effective dissemination to, and application of forecasts by, communal farmers.

KeywordsEl Nino; southern oscillation; daily rainfall forecasts; Zimbabwe
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300203. Agricultural land planning
370108. Meteorology
370202. Climatology
Public Notes

This publication is copyright. It may be reproduced in whole or in part for the purposes of study, research, or review, but is subject to the inclusion of an acknowledgment of the source.

Byline AffiliationsDepartment of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Queensland
Meteorological Services Department, Zimbabwe
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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