Development and verification of thermal stress forecasts for cattle in Australia's Rangelands
Paper
Cowan, T., Hinds, E., Marshall, AG, Wheeler, MC and Cobon, DH. 2025. "Development and verification of thermal stress forecasts for cattle in Australia's Rangelands." McDonald, S., Hacker, R., Pressland, T., Silcock, J., Reseigh, J. and Beutel, T. (ed.) 12th International Rangeland Congress. Adelaide, Australia 02 - 06 Jun 2025 Australia.
| Paper/Presentation Title | Development and verification of thermal stress forecasts for cattle in Australia's Rangelands |
|---|---|
| Presentation Type | Paper |
| Authors | Cowan, T., Hinds, E., Marshall, AG, Wheeler, MC and Cobon, DH |
| Editors | McDonald, S., Hacker, R., Pressland, T., Silcock, J., Reseigh, J. and Beutel, T. |
| Journal or Proceedings Title | 12th International Rangeland Congress |
| Proceedings of the 12th International Rangeland Congress | |
| Journal Citation | pp. 2141-2145 |
| Number of Pages | 5 |
| Year | 2025 |
| Place of Publication | Australia |
| Web Address (URL) of Conference Proceedings | https://irc2025.rangelandcongress.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/XII-IRC-Proceedings-Draft-com-compressed.pdf |
| Conference/Event | 12th International Rangeland Congress |
| Event Details | 12th International Rangeland Congress Parent International Rangeland Congress Delivery In person Event Date 02 to end of 06 Jun 2025 Event Location Adelaide, Australia Event Venue Adelaide Convention Centre Event Web Address (URL) |
| Abstract | The highly variable weather and climate of northern Australia can pose a significant threat to cattle and other livestock, with prolonged heat waves and sudden chill conditions known to increase mortality risk. For example, the compounding impact of high temperatures, high humidity and calm conditions led to significant cattle heat stress and dozens of animal deaths in southern Queensland in late January 2024. Conversely, the combination of flooding, low temperatures, and high winds associated with a tropical low caused thousands of cattle deaths in northern Queensland in February Currently, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology issues national sheep graziers' alerts for potential risk of chill Test and exposure, however there are no such equivalent chill (or heat) warnings for cattle. A key objective of the Northern Australian Climate Program (NACP) is to develop prototype forecast products of thermal stress that can be utilised by livestock producers to help manage the risks posed by extreme weather and climate events. In this research, we describe NACP's latest prototype forecast maps of the Heat Load Index (HLI) and Cattle Comfort Index (CCI), derived from the Bureau's numerical weather prediction system - ACCESS-G3. These forecasts display the predicted chill and heat conditions across Australia out to 7 days. We also assess how well the predictions of CCI performed for a extreme heat event in southern Queensland in January 2024. |
| Keywords | cattle comfort; temperature; forecast; chill; heat stress |
| Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
| ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370101. Adverse weather events |
| 370108. Meteorology | |
| 300306. Animal welfare | |
| Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions, but may be accessed online. Please see the link in the URL field. |
| Byline Affiliations | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences |
| Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
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Wedd, Robin, Alves, Oscar, de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Down, Christopher, Griffiths, Morwenna, Hendon, Harry H., Hudson, Debra, Li, Shuhua, Lim, Eun-Pa, Marshall, Andrew G., Shi, Li, Smith, Paul, Smith, Grant, Spillman, Claire M., Wang, Guomin, Wheeler, Matthew C., Yan, Hailin, Yin, Yonghong, Young, Griffith, ..., Zhou, Xiaobing. 2022. "ACCESS-S2: The upgraded Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 72, pp. 218-242. https://doi.org/10.1071/ES22026Predicting extremes that impact northern Australian livestock
Cowan, T.. 2022. "Predicting extremes that impact northern Australian livestock." Understanding High-Risk Events Mini-Symposium. online 06 - 06 Apr 2022The Combined Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C. and Marshall, Andrew. 2022. "The Combined Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall." 19th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS 2022) Conference. Singapore 01 - 05 Aug 2022Cattle and Heat: a case for developing a cattle-specific heat stress forecast product
Cowan, T., Wheeler, M., Griffiths, M., Jackson, J. and Gaughan, J.. 2022. "Cattle and Heat: a case for developing a cattle-specific heat stress forecast product ." 29th Annual Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 28 Nov - 01 Dec 2022The combined influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian rainfall and temperature
Cowan, T., Wheeler, M. and Marshall, A.. 2022. "The combined influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian rainfall and temperature." 29th Annual Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 28 Nov - 01 Dec 2022Drought outlook validation using ACCESS-S2 hindcast
Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Cobon, David. 2022. Drought outlook validation using ACCESS-S2 hindcast. Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP).The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights
Lavender, Sally L., Cowan, Tim, Hawcroft, Matthew, Wheeler, Matthew C., Jarvis, Chelsea, Cobon, David, Nguyen, Hanh, Hudson, Debra, Sharmila, S., Marshall, Andrew G., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Milton, Sean, Stirling, Alison, Alves, Oscar and Hendon, Harry H.. 2022. "The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (11), pp. E2492-E2505. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1