Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management

Poster

Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew and Ribbe, Joachim. 2004. "Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management." 4th International Crop Science Congress (ICSC 2004): New Directions for a Diverse Planet. Brisbane, Australia 26 Sep - 01 Oct 2004 Brisbane, Australia.
Paper/Presentation Title

Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management

Presentation TypePoster
AuthorsDonald, Alexis (Author), Meinke, Holger (Author), Power, Brendan (Author), Wheeler, Matthew (Author) and Ribbe, Joachim (Author)
Journal or Proceedings TitleProceedings of the 4th International Crop Science Congress (ICSC 2004)
Number of Pages6
Year2004
Place of PublicationBrisbane, Australia
ISBN1920842209
Web Address (URL) of Paperhttp://www.cropscience.org.au/icsc2004/poster/2/6/1362_donalda.htm
Conference/Event4th International Crop Science Congress (ICSC 2004): New Directions for a Diverse Planet
Event Details
4th International Crop Science Congress (ICSC 2004): New Directions for a Diverse Planet
Event Date
26 Sep 2004 to end of 01 Oct 2004
Event Location
Brisbane, Australia
Abstract

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a tropical atmospheric phenomenon first recognised in the early 1970s. The MJO, also commonly known as the 40-day wave, develops over the Indian Ocean and then travels east across the tropics at 5-10 m/s. With a timescale ranging from 30 to 60 days, the MJO has a frequency of 6-12 events per year. In its active stage, the MJO is associated with increased convective activity. Trailing the active centre is region of suppressed convective activity and mean surface level westerly winds. Statistical analysis shows that the MJO can influence rainfall in Australia and elsewhere in the world, beyond the tropics. As MJO forecasting tends to bridge the gap between synoptic and seasonal forecasting, the potential for on-farm risk management is significant.

KeywordsMadden Julian Oscillation; risk management; climate forecasting; climate variability; tropical atmosphere
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370201. Climate change processes
370904. Palaeoclimatology
370202. Climatology
Public Notes

Individual authors retain copyright.

Byline AffiliationsDepartment of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Queensland
Department of Primary Industries, Queensland
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Department of Biological and Physical Sciences
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Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis
Meinke, Holger, Nelson, Rohan, Kokic, Phil, Stone, Roger, Selvaraju, Ramasamy and Baethgen, Walter. 2006. "Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis." Climate Research. 33 (1), pp. 101-110. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr033101
Inferential, nonparametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems
Maia, Aline de H. N., Meinke, Holger, Lennox, Sarah and Stone, Roger. 2007. "Inferential, nonparametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems." Monthly Weather Review. 135 (2), pp. 351-362. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3291.1
Observing hypersalinity in an East Australian subtropical estuary
Ribbe, Joachim. 2009. "Observing hypersalinity in an East Australian subtropical estuary." European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2009 (EGU2009). Vienna, Austria 19 - 24 Apr 2009
Low-frequency variability of regional sea surface temperature and rainfall in the Austral-Indonesian region
Faqih, Akhmad, Ribbe, Joachim and Meinke, Holger. 2009. "Low-frequency variability of regional sea surface temperature and rainfall in the Austral-Indonesian region." 9th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography. Melbourne, Australia 09 - 13 Feb 2009 United States of America.
A detailed proxy rainfall record from Lake Broadwater, Dalby, Southeast Queensland
Cottrill, Andrew, Ribbe, Joachim and Maron, Martine. 2009. "A detailed proxy rainfall record from Lake Broadwater, Dalby, Southeast Queensland." 9th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography. Melbourne, Australia 09 - 13 Feb 2009 Boston, MA.
Changes in MSLP over Queensland and the Southern Hemisphere
Cottrill, Andrew and Ribbe, Joachim. 2009. "Changes in MSLP over Queensland and the Southern Hemisphere." 9th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography. Melbourne, Australia 09 - 13 Feb 2009 United States of America.
El Nino through the 'eyes' of a wheat crop
Potgieter, Andries B., Hammer, Graeme L., Meinke, Holger, Stone, Roger C. and Goddard, Lisa. 2003. "El Nino through the 'eyes' of a wheat crop." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.
Climate impact on hypersalinity in an Australian coastal bay
Ribbe, Joachim. 2010. "Climate impact on hypersalinity in an Australian coastal bay." You, Yuzhu and Henderson-Sellers, Ann (ed.) Climate alert: climate change monitoring and strategy. Sydney, Australia. Sydney University Press. pp. 213-237
Impact of climate variability on the circulation of an East-Australian bay
Grawe, Ulf, Ribbe, Joachim and Wolff, Jorg-Olaf. 2009. "Impact of climate variability on the circulation of an East-Australian bay." 9th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography. Melbourne, Australia 09 - 13 Feb 2009 United States.
Interdecadal variability of regional sea surface temperature and rainfall in the Austral-Indonesian region
Faqih, Akhmad, Ribbe, Joachim and Meinke, Holger. 2008. "Interdecadal variability of regional sea surface temperature and rainfall in the Austral-Indonesian region." WMO 4th International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-IV). Beijing, China 20 - 25 Oct 2008
Assessment of GCM-based rainfall simulations for the Austral-Indonesian region
Faqih, Akhmad, Ribbe, Joachim and Meinke, Holger. 2008. "Assessment of GCM-based rainfall simulations for the Austral-Indonesian region." WMO 4th International Workshop on Monsoons (IWM-IV). Beijing, China 20 - 25 Oct 2008
Monitoring and assessing salinity and temperature variations in Hervey Bay
Ribbe, Joachim. 2008. Monitoring and assessing salinity and temperature variations in Hervey Bay. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Stability of an Australian inverse bay
Grawe, Ulf, Ribbe, Joachim and Wolff, Jorg-Olaf. 2008. "Stability of an Australian inverse bay." PECS 2008: Physics of Estuaries and Coastal Seas. Liverpool, United Kingdom 25 - 29 Aug 2008 Liverpool, United Kingdom.
Hervey Bay: an inverse subtropical estuary
Ribbe, Joachim. 2007. "Hervey Bay: an inverse subtropical estuary." Inaugural Queensland Coastal Conference 2007: Shifting Sands. Bundaberg, Australia 17 - 19 Sep 2007 Bundaberg, Australia.
The inverse nature of an Australian bay
Grawe, U., Ribbe, J. and Wolff, J.-O.. 2008. "The inverse nature of an Australian bay." 5th European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2008. Vienna, Austria 13 - 18 Apr 2008 Germany.
The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham, Power, Brendan and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall." 15th Australian New Zealand Climate Forum. Palmerston, New Zealand 19 - 21 Mar 2003 Palmerston, New Zealand.
Queensland rainfall decline
Cottrill, Andrew and Ribbe, Joachim. 2008. "Queensland rainfall decline." 15th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society: Atmospheric and Oceanic Extremes. Geelong, Victoria 29 Jan - 01 Feb 2008 Geelong, Victoria, Australia.
Contingency planning for drought - a case study in coping with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties
Stone, Roger C. and Meinke, Holger. 2007. "Contingency planning for drought - a case study in coping with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties." Sivakumar, Mannava V. K. and Motha, Raymond P. (ed.) Managing weather and climate risks in agriculture. Heidelberg, Germany. Springer. pp. 415-433
Accessing exchange and ventilation time scales from 3-D modelling
Grawe, U., Ribbe, J., Wolff, J.-O. and Staneva, J.. 2007. "Accessing exchange and ventilation time scales from 3-D modelling." The Ocean in the Earth System: International Conference and 97th Annual Meeting of the Geologische Vereinigung E.V. (2007). Bremen, Germany 01 - 05 Oct 2007 Bremen.
Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield
Potgieter, Andries B., Hammer, Graeme L., Meinke, Holger, Stone, Roger C. and Goddard, Lisa. 2005. "Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield." Journal of Climate. 18 (10), pp. 1566-1574. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3349.1
Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance
Stone, Roger C. and Meinke, Holger. 2005. "Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 360 (1463), pp. 2109-2124. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1753
Ventilation times scales for a subtropical bay from 3-D modelling
Grawe, U., Ribbe, J., Wolff, J.-O. and Staneva, J.. 2007. "Ventilation times scales for a subtropical bay from 3-D modelling." 4th European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2007. Vienna, Austria 15 - 20 Apr 2007 Germany.
Sensitivity of middle Miocene climate and regional monsoon to palaeo-altimetry
You, John, Muller, Dietmar, Sdrolias, Maria, Herold, Nicholas and Ribbe, Joachim. 2007. "Sensitivity of middle Miocene climate and regional monsoon to palaeo-altimetry." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.
Impact of vegetation on the Miocene Climate optimum
You, John, Herold, Nicholas, Muller, Dietmar, Sdrolias, Maria and Ribbe, Joachim. 2007. "Impact of vegetation on the Miocene Climate optimum." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.
Queensland rainfall variability in IPCC AR4 model runs
Cottrill, Andrew and Ribbe, Joachim. 2007. "Queensland rainfall variability in IPCC AR4 model runs." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. "A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.
20th century rainfall variability and the role of large scale climate events within Indo-Pacific region from IPCC AR4 models, reanalysis and observations
Faqih, Akhmad, Ribbe, Joachim and Meinke, Holger. 2007. "20th century rainfall variability and the role of large scale climate events within Indo-Pacific region from IPCC AR4 models, reanalysis and observations." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research. Toowoomba, Australia. Joachim Ribbe.
French nuclear tests: an impact assessment
Ribbe, Joachim. 1992. "French nuclear tests: an impact assessment." Pacific Research. 5 (1), pp. 20-21.
The South Atlantic in the late quaternary: reconstruction of material budgets and current systems: a review.
Ribbe, Joachim. 2005. "The South Atlantic in the late quaternary: reconstruction of material budgets and current systems: a review." Australian Marine Science Bulletin.
First Latin American school in ocean and climate modelling: summary report, lecture notes and seminar abstracts
Ribbe, Joachim. 2000. First Latin American school in ocean and climate modelling: summary report, lecture notes and seminar abstracts. Chile. University of Concepcion.
The Madden Julian Oscillation: a literature review
Donald, Alexis and Ribbe, Joachim. 2002. The Madden Julian Oscillation: a literature review. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
A teleconnection between the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude and equatorial ocean (Abstract)
Ribbe, Joachim. 2001. "A teleconnection between the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude and equatorial ocean (Abstract)." 14th Australian New Zealand Climate Forum. Darwin 17 - 21 Sep 2001 Darwin.
Seasonal climate forecasts for more effective raingrown grain-cotton production systems
Harris, Graham, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Donald, Alexis, deVoil, Peter and Ribbe, Joachim. 2002. "Seasonal climate forecasts for more effective raingrown grain-cotton production systems." 11th Australian Cotton Conference 2002: Field to Fashion. Brisbane, Australia 13 - 15 Aug 2002 Orange, Australia.
Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems
Harris, Graham, Chudleigh, Fred, Meinke, Holger, Donald, Alexis, Power, Brendan, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems." Australian Cotton Cooperative Research Centre Annual Science Review 2003. Armidale, Australia 23 - 24 Jul 2003 Armidale, Australia.
The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.
Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger C., Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland." 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography 2003: Southern Ocean Weather and Climate Variability: Regional and Global Effects. Wellington, New Zealand 24 - 28 Mar 2003 Boston, MA. United States.
Linking Southern Ocean water masses and Australian rainfall variability
Ribbe, Joachim. 2004. "Linking Southern Ocean water masses and Australian rainfall variability." Australian Marine Sciences Association Hobart Conference (2004). Hobart, Australia 06 - 09 Jul 2004 Australia.
Hervey Bay: a salt fountain in subtropical East Australia
Ribbe, Joachim. 2006. "Hervey Bay: a salt fountain in subtropical East Australia." 2006 International Geographical Union Regional Conference: Spaced in or spaced out. Brisbane, Australia 03 - 07 Jul 2006
Modelling ventilation time scales for Hervey Bay
Ribbe, Joachim. 2006. "Modelling ventilation time scales for Hervey Bay." Australian Marine Sciences Assocation (AMS) 44th Annual Conference. Cairns, Australia 09 - 14 Jul 2006 Australia.
Climate change: what is happening in the ocean?
Ribbe, Joachim. 2001. "Climate change: what is happening in the ocean?" Ciencia Al Dia Internacional. 4 (2), pp. 1-18.
An impact assessment for the French nuclear weapon test sites in French Polynesia
Ribbe, Joachim and Tomczak, Matthias. 1990. "An impact assessment for the French nuclear weapon test sites in French Polynesia." Marine Pollution Bulletin. 21, pp. 536-542.
A one-dimensional dispersion model for radionuclides in the marine environment applied to the Chernobyl fallout over the northern Baltic Sea
Ribbe, Joachim, Muller-Navarra, Sylvin H. and Nies, Hartmut. 1991. "A one-dimensional dispersion model for radionuclides in the marine environment applied to the Chernobyl fallout over the northern Baltic Sea." Journal of Environmental Radioactivity. 14 (1), pp. 55-72. https://doi.org/10.1016/0265-931X(91)90015-8
What drives mid-latitudinal convection and the formation of Subantarctic Mode Water
Ribbe, Joachim. 1997. "What drives mid-latitudinal convection and the formation of Subantarctic Mode Water." International WOCE Newsletter. 29, pp. 20-26.
Intermediate water mass production controlled by southern hemisphere winds
Ribbe, Joachim. 2001. "Intermediate water mass production controlled by southern hemisphere winds." Geophysical Research Letters. 28 (3), pp. 535-538. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000GL012242
On wind-driven mid-latitude convection in ocean general circulation models
Ribbe, Joachim. 1999. "On wind-driven mid-latitude convection in ocean general circulation models." Tellus Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography. 51, pp. 505-516.
An introduction to Internet based climate science teaching
Ribbe, Joachim. 2002. "An introduction to Internet based climate science teaching." Australian Science Teachers' Journal. 48 (3), pp. 28-35.
Climate modelling for the classroom: applying physics and mathematics in a new context
Ribbe, Joachim. 2005. "Climate modelling for the classroom: applying physics and mathematics in a new context." Teaching Science: The Journal of the Australian Science Teachers Association. 51 (3), pp. 24-37.