Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield
Article
Article Title | Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield |
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ERA Journal ID | 1978 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Potgieter, Andries B. (Author), Hammer, Graeme L. (Author), Meinke, Holger (Author), Stone, Roger C. (Author) and Goddard, Lisa (Author) |
Journal Title | Journal of Climate |
Journal Citation | 18 (10), pp. 1566-1574 |
Number of Pages | 9 |
Year | 2005 |
Publisher | American Meteorological Society |
Place of Publication | Boston, United States |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
1520-0442 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3349.1 |
Web Address (URL) | https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/18/10/jcli3349.1.xml |
Abstract | The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon signficantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Nino events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Nino events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Nino are identified among 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns ('footprints') found in the El Nino impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Nino differing in the timing and onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Nino events on agricultural systems. |
Keywords | El Nino; Australia; Australian; wheat; yield; atmospheric pressure; biomarkers; drought; plants (botany) |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 300206. Agricultural spatial analysis and modelling |
370202. Climatology | |
300402. Agro-ecosystem function and prediction | |
Public Notes | File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author. |
Byline Affiliations | Department of Primary Industries, Queensland |
University of Queensland | |
Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Queensland | |
Columbia University, United States |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/9y3y2/three-putative-types-of-el-nino-revealed-by-spatial-variability-in-impact-on-australian-wheat-yield
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