Vapour pressure deficit determines critical thresholds for global coffee production under climate change
Article
Article Title | Vapour pressure deficit determines critical thresholds for global coffee production under climate change |
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ERA Journal ID | 213757 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Kath, Jarrod (Author), Craparo, Alessandro (Author), Fong, Youyi (Author), Byrareddy, Vivekananda (Author), Davis, Aaron P. (Author), King, Rachel (Author), Nguyen-Huy, Thong (Author), van Asten, Piet J. A. (Author), Marcussen, Torben (Author), Mushtaq, Shahbaz (Author), Stone, Roger (Author) and Power, Scott (Author) |
Journal Title | Nature Food |
Journal Citation | 3, pp. 871-880 |
Number of Pages | 21 |
Year | 2022 |
Publisher | Nature Publishing Group |
Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
ISSN | 2662-1355 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-022-00614-8 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s43016-022-00614-8 |
Abstract | Our understanding of the impact of climate change on global coffee production is largely based on studies focusing on temperature and precipitation, but other climate indicators could trigger critical threshold changes in productivity. Here, using generalized additive models and threshold regression, we investigate temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and vapour pressure deficit (VPD) effects on global Arabica coffee productivity. We show that VPD during fruit development is a key indicator of global coffee productivity, with yield declining rapidly above 0.82 kPa. The risk of exceeding this threshold rises sharply for most countries we assess, if global warming exceeds 2 °C. At 2.9 °C, countries making up 90% of global supply are more likely than not to exceed the VPD threshold. The inclusion of VPD and the identification of thresholds appear critical for understanding climate change impacts on coffee and for the design of adaptation strategies. |
Keywords | Climate change; Threshold; Coffee |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 410299. Ecological applications not elsewhere classified |
410102. Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation | |
300202. Agricultural land management | |
Public Notes | The accessible file is the submitted version of the paper. Please refer to the URL for the published version. |
Byline Affiliations | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences |
International Centre for Tropical Agriculture, Vietnam | |
Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, United States | |
Royal Botanic Gardens, United Kingdom | |
Olam Food Ingredients, Singapore | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q7w80/vapour-pressure-deficit-determines-critical-thresholds-for-global-coffee-production-under-climate-change
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