Copula-Probabilistic Flood Risk Analysis with an Hourly Flood Monitoring Index
Article
Chand, Ravinesh, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Ghimire, Sujan, Ali, Mumtaz and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2024. "Copula-Probabilistic Flood Risk Analysis with an Hourly Flood Monitoring Index." Water. 16 (11). https://doi.org/10.3390/w16111560
| Article Title | Copula-Probabilistic Flood Risk Analysis with an Hourly Flood Monitoring Index |
|---|---|
| Article Category | Article |
| Authors | Chand, Ravinesh, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Ghimire, Sujan, Ali, Mumtaz and Ghahramani, Afshin |
| Journal Title | Water |
| Journal Citation | 16 (11) |
| Article Number | 1560 |
| Number of Pages | 27 |
| Year | 2024 |
| Publisher | MDPI AG |
| Place of Publication | Switzerland |
| ISSN | 2073-4441 |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.3390/w16111560 |
| Web Address (URL) | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/16/11/1560 |
| Abstract | Floods are a common natural disaster whose severity in terms of duration, water resource volume, peak, and accumulated rainfall-based damage is likely to differ significantly for different geographical regions. In this paper, we first propose a novel hourly flood index (πππ πΌ24ββπβπ) derived from normalising the existing 24-hourly water resources index (ππ πΌ24ββπβπ) in the literature to monitor flood risk on an hourly scale. The proposed πππ πΌ24ββπβπ is adopted to identify a flood situation and derive its characteristics, such as the duration (D), volume (V), and peak (Q). The comprehensive result analysis establishes the practical utility of πππ πΌ24ββπβπ in identifying flood situations at seven study sites in Fiji between 2014 and 2018 and deriving their characteristics (i.e., D, V, and Q). Secondly, this study develops a vine copula-probabilistic risk analysis system that models the joint distribution of flood characteristics (i.e., D, V, and Q) to extract their joint exceedance probability for the seven study sites in Fiji, enabling probabilistic flood risk assessment. The vine copula approach, particularly suited to Fijiβs study sites, introduces a novel probabilistic framework for flood risk assessment. The results show moderate differences in the spatial patterns of joint exceedance probability of flood characteristics in different combination scenarios generated by the proposed vine copula approach. In the worst-case scenario, the probability of any flood event occurring where the flood volume, peak, and duration are likely to exceed the 95th-quantile value (representing an extreme flood event) is found to be less than 5% for all study sites. The proposed hourly flood index and the vine copula approach can be feasible and cost-effective tools for flood risk monitoring and assessment. The methodologies proposed in this study can be applied to other data-scarce regions where only rainfall data are available, offering crucial information for flood risk monitoring and assessment and for the development of effective mitigation strategies. |
| Keywords | flood characteristics; vine copulas; risk mitigation; joint distribution; flood monitoring; hourly flood index |
| Related Output | |
| Is part of | Artificial Intelligence and Copula-Probabilistic Models for Early Flood Warning and Community Risk Management: Case Studies in Fiji Islands |
| Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
| ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 460207. Modelling and simulation |
| Public Notes | This article is part of a UniSQ Thesis by publication. See Related Output. |
| Byline Affiliations | School of Mathematics, Physics and Computing |
| Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | |
| Thanh Do University, Vietnam | |
| Al-Ayen University, Iraq | |
| UniSQ College | |
| University of Southern Queensland |
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Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Khan, Shahjahan, Devi, Aruna, Adeyinka, Adewuyi Ayodele, Apan, Armando A. and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Student Performance Predictions for Advanced Engineering Mathematics Course With New Multivariate Copula Models." IEEE Access. 10, pp. 45112 -45136. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2022.3168322Rapid assessment of mine rehabilitation areas with airborne LiDAR and deep learning: bauxite strip mining in Queensland, Australia
Murray, Xavier, Apan, Armando, Deo, Ravinesh and Maraseni, Tek. 2022. "Rapid assessment of mine rehabilitation areas with airborne LiDAR and deep learning: bauxite strip mining in Queensland, Australia." Geocarto International. 37 (26), pp. 11223-11252. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2022.2048902Multi-strategy Slime Mould Algorithm for hydropower multi-reservoir systems optimization
Ahmadianfar, Iman, Noori, Ramzia Majeed, Togun, Hussein, Falah, Mayadah W., Homod, Raad Z., Fu, Minglei, Halder, Bijay, Deo, Ravinesh and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Multi-strategy Slime Mould Algorithm for hydropower multi-reservoir systems optimization." Knowledge-Based Systems. 250, pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2022.109048Suspended sediment load modeling using advanced hybrid rotation forest based elastic network approach
Khosravi, Khabat, Golkarian, Ali, Melesse, Assefa M. and Deo, Ravinesh C.. 2022. "Suspended sediment load modeling using advanced hybrid rotation forest based elastic network approach." Journal of Hydrology. 610, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127963Delineating the Crop-Land Dynamic due to Extreme Environment Using Landsat Datasets: A Case Study
Halder, Bijay, Bandyopadhyay, Jatisankar, Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin, Naser, Maryam H., Abed, Salwan Ali, Khedher, Khaled Mohamed, Falih, Khaldoon T., Deo, Ravinesh, Scholz, Miklas and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Delineating the Crop-Land Dynamic due to Extreme Environment Using Landsat Datasets: A Case Study." Agronomy. 12 (6), pp. 1-23. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12061268Coupled online sequential extreme learning machine model with ant colony optimization algorithm for wheat yield prediction
Ali, Mumtaz, Deo, Ravinesh C., Xiang, Yong, Prasad, Ramendra, Li, Jianxin, Farooque, Aitazaz and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Coupled online sequential extreme learning machine model with ant colony optimization algorithm for wheat yield prediction." Scientific Reports. 12 (1), pp. 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09482-5Forecasting solar photosynthetic photon flux density under cloud cover effects: novel predictive model using convolutional neural network integrated with long short-term memory network
Deo, Ravinesh C., Grant, Richard H., Webb, Ann, Ghimire, Sujan, Igoe, Damien P., Downs, Nathan J., Al-Musaylh, Mohanad S., Parisi, Alfio V. and Soar, Jeffrey. 2022. "Forecasting solar photosynthetic photon flux density under cloud cover effects: novel predictive model using convolutional neural network integrated with long short-term memory network." Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 36, p. 3183β3220. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-022-02188-0Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise Deep Residual model for short-term multi-step solar radiation prediction
Ghimire, Sujan, Deo, Ravinesh C, Casillas-Perez, David and Salcedo-sanz, Sancho. 2022. "Improved Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise Deep Residual model for short-term multi-step solar radiation prediction." Renewable Energy. 190, pp. 408-424. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2022.03.120Efficient daily solar radiation prediction with deep learning 4-phase convolutional neural network, dual stage stacked regression and support vector machine CNN-REGST hybrid model
Ghimire, Sujan, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Casillas-Perez, David and Salcedo-sanz, Sancho. 2022. "Efficient daily solar radiation prediction with deep learning 4-phase convolutional neural network, dual stage stacked regression and support vector machine CNN-REGST hybrid model." Sustainable Materials and Technologies. 32, pp. 1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.susmat.2022.e00429Hybrid deep CNN-SVR algorithm for solar radiation prediction problems in Queensland, Australia
Ghimire, Sujan, Bhandari, Binayak, Casillas-Perez, David, Deo, Ravinesh C. and Salcedo-sanz, Sancho. 2022. "Hybrid deep CNN-SVR algorithm for solar radiation prediction problems in Queensland, Australia." Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence. 112, pp. 1-26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engappai.2022.104860Boosting solar radiation predictions with global climate models, observational predictors and hybrid deep-machine learning algorithms
Ghimire, Sujan, Deo, Ravinesh C., Casillas-Perez, David and Salcedo-sanz, Sancho. 2022. "Boosting solar radiation predictions with global climate models, observational predictors and hybrid deep-machine learning algorithms." Applied Energy. 316, pp. 1-25. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119063Machine learning regression and classification methods for fog events prediction
Castillo-Boton, C., Casillas-Perez, D., Casanova-Mateo, C., Ghimire, S., Cerro-Prada, E., Gutierrez, P. A., Deo, R. C. and Salcedo-sanz, S.. 2022. "Machine learning regression and classification methods for fog events prediction." Atmospheric Research. 272, pp. 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106157Quantum Artificial Intelligence Predictions Enhancement by Improving Signal Processing
Riaz, Farina, Abdulla, Shahab, Ni, Wei, Radfar, Mohsen, Deo, Ravinesh and Hopkins, Susan. 2022. "Quantum Artificial Intelligence Predictions Enhancement by Improving Signal Processing." Quantum Australia Conference 2022. Online 23 - 25 Feb 2022 Toowoomba, Australia. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.34754.66245Forecasting Daily Flood Water Level Using Hybrid Advanced Machine Learning Based TimeβVarying Filtered Empirical Mode Decomposition Approach
Jamei, Mehdi, Ali, Mumtaz, Malik, Anurag, Prasad, Ramendra, Abdulla, Shahab and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Forecasting Daily Flood Water Level Using Hybrid Advanced Machine Learning Based TimeβVarying Filtered Empirical Mode Decomposition Approach." Water Resources Management. 36 (12), p. 4637β4676. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03270-6A satellite-based Standardized Antecedent Precipitation Index (SAPI) for mapping extreme rainfall risk in Myanmar
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Kath, Jarrod, Nagler, Thomas, Khaung, Ye, Aung, Thee Su Su, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Marcussen, Torben and Stone, Roger. 2022. "A satellite-based Standardized Antecedent Precipitation Index (SAPI) for mapping extreme rainfall risk in Myanmar." Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment. 26, pp. 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2022.100733Deep learning CNN-LSTM-MLP hybrid fusion model for feature optimizations and daily solar radiation prediction
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Lu, Zhixiang, Feng, Qi, Wei, Yongping, Zhao, Yan, Deo, Ravinesh C., Xie, Jiali, Zhou, Sha, Zhu, Meng and Xu, Min. 2022. "Basin management inspiration from impacts of alternating dry and wet conditions on water production and carbon uptake in Murray-Darling Basin." Science of the Total Environment. 851 (Part 2), pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158359Introductory Engineering Mathematics Studentsβ Weighted Score Predictions Utilising a Novel Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Model
Ahmed, Abul Abrar Masrur, Deo, Ravinesh C., Ghimire, Sujan, Downs, Nathan J., Devi, Aruna, Barua, Prabal D. and Yaseen, Zaher M.. 2022. "Introductory Engineering Mathematics Studentsβ Weighted Score Predictions Utilising a Novel Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Model." Sustainability. 14 (17), pp. 1-27. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141711070Kernel Ridge Regression Hybrid Method for Wheat Yield Prediction with Satellite-Derived Predictors
Ahmed, A. A. Masrur, Sharma, Ekta, Jui, S. Janifer Jabin, Deo, Ravinesh C., Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Ali, Mumtaz. 2022. "Kernel Ridge Regression Hybrid Method for Wheat Yield Prediction with Satellite-Derived Predictors." Remote Sensing. 14 (5), pp. 1-24. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14051136Cloud Affected Solar UV Predictions with Three-Phase Wavelet Hybrid Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network Multi-Step Forecast System
Prasad, Salvin S., Deo, Ravinesh C., Downs, Nathan, Igoe, Damien, Parisi, Alfio V. and Soar, Jeffrey. 2022. "Cloud Affected Solar UV Predictions with Three-Phase Wavelet Hybrid Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network Multi-Step Forecast System." IEEE Access. 10, pp. 24704-24720. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2022.3153475Development and evaluation of hybrid deep learning long short-term memory network model for pan evaporation estimation trained with satellite and ground-based data
Jayasinghe, W. J. M. Lakmini Prarthana, Deo, Ravinesh C., Ghahramani, Afshin, Ghimire, Sujan and Raj, Nawin. 2022. "Development and evaluation of hybrid deep learning long short-term memory network model for pan evaporation estimation trained with satellite and ground-based data." Journal of Hydrology. 607, pp. 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127534Integrative artificial intelligence models for Australian coastal sediment lead prediction: An investigation of in-situ measurements and meteorological parameters effects
Bhagat, Suraj Kumar, Tiyasha, Tiyasha, Kumar, Adarsh, Malik, Tabarak, Jawad, Ali H., Khedher, Khaled Mohamed, Deo, Ravinesh C. and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Integrative artificial intelligence models for Australian coastal sediment lead prediction: An investigation of in-situ measurements and meteorological parameters effects." Journal of Environmental Management. 309, pp. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114711An Eigenvalues-Based Covariance Matrix Bootstrap Model Integrated With Support Vector Machines for Multichannel EEG Signals Analysis
Al-Hadeethi, Hanan, Abdulla, Shahab, Diykh, Mohammed, Deo, Ravinesh C. and Green, Jonathan H.. 2022. "An Eigenvalues-Based Covariance Matrix Bootstrap Model Integrated With Support Vector Machines for Multichannel EEG Signals Analysis." Frontiers in Neuroinformatics. 15, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3389/fninf.2021.808339Stacked LSTM Sequence-to-Sequence Autoencoder with Feature Selection for Daily Solar Radiation Prediction: A Review and New Modeling Results
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Cobon, David, Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Reardon-Smith, Kate. 2019. Drought Outlook Products Review. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.Study on the Development of Neutrosophic Triplet Ring and Neutrosophic Triplet Field
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Ethteram, Mohammad, Mousavi, Sayed-Farhad, Karami, Hojat, Farzin, Saeed, Deo, Ravinesh, Othman, Faridah Binti, Chau, Kwok-Wing, Sarkamaryan, Saeed, Singh, Vijay P. and El-Shafie, Ahmed. 2018. "Bat algorithm for damβreservoir operation." Environmental Earth Sciences. 77 (13), pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7662-5Characteristics ofΒ ecosystem water use efficiency inΒ aΒ desert riparian forest
Ma, Xiaohong, Feng, Qi, Su, Yonghong, Yu, Tengfei and Deo, Ravinesh C.. 2018. "Characteristics ofΒ ecosystem water use efficiency inΒ aΒ desert riparian forest." Environmental Earth Sciences. 77 (358). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7518-zThe influence of climatic inputs on stream-flow pattern forecasting: case study of Upper Senegal River
Diop, Lamine, Bodian, Ansoumana, Djaman, Koffi, Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, Deo, Ravinesh C., El-Shafie, Ahmed and Brown, Larry C.. 2018. "The influence of climatic inputs on stream-flow pattern forecasting: case study of Upper Senegal River." Environmental Earth Sciences. 77 (5). https://doi.org/10.1007/s1266Uncertainty assessment of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model with implementation of the novel hybrid MLP-FFA method for prediction of biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen: a case study of Langat River
Raheli, Bahare, Aalami, Mohammad Taghi, El-Shafie, Ahmed, Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali and Deo, Ravinesh C.. 2017. "Uncertainty assessment of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model with implementation of the novel hybrid MLP-FFA method for prediction of biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen: a case study of Langat River." Environmental Earth Sciences. 76 (14). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-6842-zMethodology for producing the Drought Monitor
Pudmenzky, Christa, Guillory, Laura, Cobon, David H. and Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2020. Methodology for producing the Drought Monitor. Toowoomba, Queensland. University of Southern Queensland.Forecasting weekly reference evapotranspiration using Auto Encoder Decoder Bidirectional LSTM model hybridized with a Boruta-CatBoost input optimizer
Karbasi, Masoud, Jamei, Mehdi, Ali, Mumtaz, Malik, Anurag and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Forecasting weekly reference evapotranspiration using Auto Encoder Decoder Bidirectional LSTM model hybridized with a Boruta-CatBoost input optimizer." Computers and Electronics in Agriculture. 198, pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2022.107121Neutrosophic Recommender System for Medical Diagnosis Based on Algebraic Similarity Measure and Clustering
Thanh, Nguyen Dang, Son, Le Hoang and Ali, Mumtaz. 2017. "Neutrosophic Recommender System for Medical Diagnosis Based on Algebraic Similarity Measure and Clustering." 2017 IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE). Naples, Italy 09 - 12 Jul 2017 Piscataway, United States. https://doi.org/10.1109/FUZZ-IEEE.2017.8015387An intuitionistic fuzzy clustering algorithm based on a new correlation coefficient with application in medical diagnosis
Thao, Nguyen Xuan, Ali, Mumtaz and Smarandache, Florentin. 2019. "An intuitionistic fuzzy clustering algorithm based on a new correlation coefficient with application in medical diagnosis." Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems. 36 (1), pp. 189-198. https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-181084Linguistic Approaches to Interval Complex Neutrosophic Sets in Decision Making
Dat, Luu Quoc, Thong, Nguyen Tho, Son, Le Hoang, Ali, Mumtaz, Smarandache, Florentin, Abdel-Basset, Mohamed and Long, Hoang Viet. 2019. "Linguistic Approaches to Interval Complex Neutrosophic Sets in Decision Making." IEEE Access. 7, pp. 38902-38917. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2902841Northern Australia Climate Program: supporting adaptation in rangeland grazing systems through more targeted climate forecasts, improved drought information and an innovative extension program
Cobon, David, Jarvis, Chelsea, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Guillory, Laura, Pudmenzky, Christa, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Stone, Roger. 2021. "Northern Australia Climate Program: supporting adaptation in rangeland grazing systems through more targeted climate forecasts, improved drought information and an innovative extension program." The Rangeland Journal. 43 (3), pp. 87-100. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ20074Dynamic interval valued neutrosophic set: Modeling decision making in dynamic environments
Thong, Nguyen Tho, Dat, Luu Quoc, Son, Le Hoang, Hoa, Nguyen Dinh, Ali, Mumtaz and Smarandache, Florentin. 2019. "Dynamic interval valued neutrosophic set: Modeling decision making in dynamic environments." Computers in Industry. 108, pp. 45-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compind.2019.02.009Fuzzy and neutrosophic modeling for link prediction in social networks
Tuan, Tran Manh, Chuan, Pham Minh, Ali, Mumtaz, Ngan, Tran Thi, Mittal, Mamta and Son, Le Hoang. 2019. "Fuzzy and neutrosophic modeling for link prediction in social networks." Evolving Systems. 10, pp. 629-634. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12530-018-9251-yNovel hybrid deep learning model for satellite based PM10 forecasting in the most polluted Australian hotspots
Sharma, Ekta, Deo, Ravinesh C., Soar, Jeffrey, Prasad, Ramendra, Parisi, Alfio V. and Raj, Nawin. 2022. "Novel hybrid deep learning model for satellite based PM10 forecasting in the most polluted Australian hotspots." Atmospheric Environment. 279, pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119111New double decomposition deep learning methods for river water level forecasting
Ahmed, A. A. Masrur, Deo, Ravinesh C., Ghahramani, Afshin, Feng, Qi, Raj, Nawin, Yin, Zhenliang and Yang, Linshan. 2022. "New double decomposition deep learning methods for river water level forecasting." Science of the Total Environment. 831, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154722Global disparities in agricultural climate index-based insurance research
Adeyinka, Adewuyi Ayodele, Kath, Jarrod, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Souvignet, Maxime, Range, Matthias and Barratt, Jonathan. 2022. "Global disparities in agricultural climate index-based insurance research." Climate Risk Management. 35, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100394Drought outlook validation using ACCESS-S2 hindcast
Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Cobon, David. 2022. Drought outlook validation using ACCESS-S2 hindcast. Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP).Systemic risk management in farming - geographic distribution and diversity
Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2022. "Systemic risk management in farming - geographic distribution and diversity." Future Drought Fundβs 2022 Science to Practice Forum. 07 - 08 Jun 2022 Australia.Multi-step daily forecasting of reference evapotranspiration for different climates of India: A modern multivariate complementary technique reinforced with ridge regression feature selection
Malik, Anurag, Jamei, Mehdi, Ali, Mumtaz, Prasad, Ramendra, Karbasi, Masoud and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Multi-step daily forecasting of reference evapotranspiration for different climates of India: A modern multivariate complementary technique reinforced with ridge regression feature selection." Agricultural Water Management. 272. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107812