Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts

Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts

This study describes flash drought (FD) inferred from the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) over Australia and its relationship to vegetation. During 1975-2020, FD occurrence ranges from less than one per decade in the central arid regions to 10 per decade toward the coasts. Although FD can occur in any season, its occurrence is more frequent in summer in the north, winter in the southern interior and southwest, and across a range of months in the far southeast and Tasmania.

With a view towards real-time monitoring, FD “declaration” is defined as the date when the ESI declines to at least -1, i.e., drought conditions, after at least 2 weeks of rapid decline. Composite analysis shows that evaporative demand begins to increase about 5-6 weeks before declaration with an increase in solar radiation, while evapotranspiration initially increases with evaporative demand but then decreases in response to the soil moisture depletion. Solar radiation increases simultaneously with precipitation deficit, both reaching their peak around declaration. FD intensity peaks with soil moisture depletion, 2-3 weeks after declaration. The composite wind speed only shows a modest increase around declaration. The composite FD ends 4 weeks after rapid decreases in solar radiation and increases in precipitation.

Satellite-derived vegetation health composites show pronounced decline in the non-forested regions, peaking about 4-8 weeks after FD declaration, followed by a recovery period lasting about 12 weeks after flash drought ends. The forest-dominated regions, however, are little impacted. Modelled pasture growth data shows reduced values for up to 3 months after the declaration month covering the main agricultural areas of Australia.

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