Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts

Article

Nguyen, Hanh, Wheeler, Mattew C., Otkin, Jason A., Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Cowan, Timothy. 2023. "Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts." Journal of Hydrometeorology. 24 (6), p. 1087–1101. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0033.1
Article Title

Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts

ERA Journal ID35134
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsNguyen, Hanh, Wheeler, Mattew C., Otkin, Jason A., Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Cowan, Timothy
Journal TitleJournal of Hydrometeorology
Journal Citation24 (6), p. 1087–1101
Number of Pages15
Year2023
PublisherAmerican Meteorological Society
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN1525-7541
1525-755X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-22-0033.1
Web Address (URL)https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/hydr/aop/JHM-D-22-0033.1/JHM-D-22-0033.1.xml
Abstract

This study describes flash drought (FD) inferred from the Evaporative Stress Index (ESI) over Australia and its relationship to vegetation. During 1975-2020, FD occurrence ranges from less than one per decade in the central arid regions to 10 per decade toward the coasts. Although FD can occur in any season, its occurrence is more frequent in summer in the north, winter in the southern interior and southwest, and across a range of months in the far southeast and Tasmania.

With a view towards real-time monitoring, FD “declaration” is defined as the date when the ESI declines to at least -1, i.e., drought conditions, after at least 2 weeks of rapid decline. Composite analysis shows that evaporative demand begins to increase about 5-6 weeks before declaration with an increase in solar radiation, while evapotranspiration initially increases with evaporative demand but then decreases in response to the soil moisture depletion. Solar radiation increases simultaneously with precipitation deficit, both reaching their peak around declaration. FD intensity peaks with soil moisture depletion, 2-3 weeks after declaration. The composite wind speed only shows a modest increase around declaration. The composite FD ends 4 weeks after rapid decreases in solar radiation and increases in precipitation.

Satellite-derived vegetation health composites show pronounced decline in the non-forested regions, peaking about 4-8 weeks after FD declaration, followed by a recovery period lasting about 12 weeks after flash drought ends. The forest-dominated regions, however, are little impacted. Modelled pasture growth data shows reduced values for up to 3 months after the declaration month covering the main agricultural areas of Australia.

KeywordsFlash drought; Spatio-temporal variability; Vegetation health ; Pasture growth; Evaporative Stress Index; Evapotranspiration
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370202. Climatology
Public Notes

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Byline AffiliationsAustralian Bureau of Meteorology
University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (Research)
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Schurer, Andrew P., Hegerl, Gabriele C., Luterbacher, Jurg, Bronnimann, Stefan, Cowan, Tim, Tett, Simon F. B., Zanchettin, Davide and Timmreck, Claudia. 2019. "Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (094019), pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10
Probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts using semiparametric d-vine copula-based quantile regression
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Khan, Shahjahan. 2020. "Probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts using semiparametric d-vine copula-based quantile regression." Samui, Pijush, Bui, Dieu Tien, Chakraborty, Subrata and Deo, Ravinesh C. (ed.) Handbook of probabilistic models. Oxford, United Kingdom. Elsevier. pp. 203-227
Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time‑evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave
Harrington, Luke J., Otto, Friederike E. L., Cowan, Tim and Hegerl, Gabriele C.. 2019. "Circulation analogues and uncertainty in the time‑evolution of extreme event probabilities: evidence from the 1947 Central European heatwave." Climate Dynamics. 53 (3-4), pp. 2229-2247. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04820-2
Copula-based statistical modelling of synoptic-scale climate indices for quantifying and managing agricultural risks in australia
Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2018. Copula-based statistical modelling of synoptic-scale climate indices for quantifying and managing agricultural risks in australia. PhD Thesis Doctor of Philosophy. University of Southern Queensland. https://doi.org/10.26192/xa1p-8373
Copula statistical models for analyzing stochastic dependencies of systemic drought risk and potential adaptation strategies
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Kath, Jarrod and Khan, Shahjahan. 2019. "Copula statistical models for analyzing stochastic dependencies of systemic drought risk and potential adaptation strategies." Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 33 (3), pp. 779-799. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-019-01662-6
Influence of internal climate variability on Indian Ocean Dipole properties
Ng, Benjamin, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim and Bi, Daohua. 2018. "Influence of internal climate variability on Indian Ocean Dipole properties." Scientific Reports. 8 (1), pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-31842-3
Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe
Vautard, Robert, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Bellprat, Omar, Christiansen, Bo, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Tim, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, Orth, Rene, Radanovics, Sabine, Seneviratne, Sonia I., ..., Yiou, Pascal. 2019. "Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe." Climate Dynamics. 52 (1-2), pp. 1187-1210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6
Copula-based agricultural conditional value-at-risk modelling for geographical diversifications in wheat farming portfolio management
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Kath, Jarrod and Khan, Shahjahan. 2018. "Copula-based agricultural conditional value-at-risk modelling for geographical diversifications in wheat farming portfolio management." Weather and Climate Extremes. 21, pp. 76-89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.07.002
Modeling the joint influence of multiple synoptic-scale, climate mode indices on Australian wheat yield using a vine copula-based approach
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., Mushtaq, Shahbaz, An-Vo, Duc-Anh and Khan, Shahjahan. 2018. "Modeling the joint influence of multiple synoptic-scale, climate mode indices on Australian wheat yield using a vine copula-based approach." European Journal of Agronomy. 98, pp. 65-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2018.05.006
Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study
Christiansen, Bo, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Timothy, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Orth, Rene, Stott, Peter, Tett, Simon, Vautard, Robert, Wilcox, Laura and Yiou, Pascal. 2018. "Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study." Journal of Climate. 31 (9), pp. 3387-3410. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0589.1
Copula-statistical precipitation forecasting model in Australia’s agro-ecological zones
Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Deo, Ravinesh C., An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Khan, Shahjahan. 2017. "Copula-statistical precipitation forecasting model in Australia’s agro-ecological zones." Agricultural Water Management. 191, pp. 153-172. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2017.06.010
Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections
Cai, W., Sullivan, A., Cowan, T., Ribbe, J. and Shi, G.. 2011. "Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (3), pp. 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046242
Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold, Ribbe, Joachim and Shi, Ge. 2011. "Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications." Journal of Climate. 24 (10), pp. 2556-2564. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3832.1
Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling
Shi, Ge, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Ribbe, Joachim, Rotstayn, Leon and Dix, Martin. 2008. "Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling." Journal of Climate. 21 (12), pp. 2938-2959. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1908.1
An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2008. "An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (2), p. L2072. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032436
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Dix, Martin, Rotstayn, Leon, Ribbe, Joachim, Shi, Ge and Wijffels, Susan. 2007. "Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (14), p. L14611. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030380
Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2007. "Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (9), p. L09706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029528
Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew, Maia, Aline de H. N., White, Neil, Stone, Roger C. and Ribbe, Joachim. 2006. "Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts." Vera, Carolina (ed.) 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (8ICSHMO): Understanding and Predicting Climate and Water Resources, their Variability and Change in the Southern Hemisphere. Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 24 - 28 Apr 2006 Washington, DC. United States.
Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Maia, Aline de H. N., Wheeler, Matthew, Stone, Roger C., Ribbe, Joachim and White, Neil. 2006. "Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall." Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (9), p. L09704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025155
The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming
Cai, W., Shi, G., Cowan, T., Bi, D. and Ribbe, J.. 2005. "The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming." Geophysical Research Letters. 32 (23), pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024701
Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?
Shi, Ge, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold and Cai, Wenju. 2010. "Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?" Burns, Barbara A., Davis, Clem, Kiss, Andrew E. and Taylor, John R. (ed.) 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society: Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society. Canberra, Australia 27 - 29 Jan 2010 Geelong, Victoria, Australia.
The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham, Power, Brendan and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall." 15th Australian New Zealand Climate Forum. Palmerston, New Zealand 19 - 21 Mar 2003 Palmerston, New Zealand.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. "A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research." 14th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 08 Feb 2007 Adelaide, Australia.
A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research
Shi, Sue, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2007. A dataset of the wind-driven global ocean circulation for climate research. Toowoomba, Australia. Joachim Ribbe.
Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems
Harris, Graham, Chudleigh, Fred, Meinke, Holger, Donald, Alexis, Power, Brendan, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems." Australian Cotton Cooperative Research Centre Annual Science Review 2003. Armidale, Australia 23 - 24 Jul 2003 Armidale, Australia.
The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.
Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger C., Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland." 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography 2003: Southern Ocean Weather and Climate Variability: Regional and Global Effects. Wellington, New Zealand 24 - 28 Mar 2003 Boston, MA. United States.
Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew and Ribbe, Joachim. 2004. "Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management." 4th International Crop Science Congress (ICSC 2004): New Directions for a Diverse Planet. Brisbane, Australia 26 Sep - 01 Oct 2004 Brisbane, Australia.