Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections
Article
Article Title | Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections |
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ERA Journal ID | 1874 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Cai, W. (Author), Sullivan, A. (Author), Cowan, T. (Author), Ribbe, J. (Author) and Shi, G. (Author) |
Journal Title | Geophysical Research Letters |
Journal Citation | 38 (3), pp. 1-5 |
Number of Pages | 5 |
Year | 2011 |
Publisher | John Wiley & Sons |
Place of Publication | United States |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
1944-8007 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046242 |
Web Address (URL) | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010GL046242 |
Abstract | A multi-model average shows that 21st century warming over the eastern Indian Ocean (IO) is slower than that to the west, but with strong inter-model variations. Is the simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) relevant to the inter-model variations? We demonstrate that inter-model variations of this future warming are consistent with how well models simulate historical IOD properties; models with a stronger IOD amplitude systematically produce a slower eastern IO warming rate with greater future rainfall changes in IOD-affected regions. These models also produce a stronger Bjerknes-like positive feedback, involving sea surface temperatures (SSTs), winds and a shoaling thermocline in the eastern IO. As warming proceeds, models with a stronger positive feedback induce a greater response to warming-induced changes such as easterly trends associated with the Walker circulation, generating a smaller warming in the eastern IO. Simulating the present-day IOD properties is, therefore, a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections. |
Keywords | climate change; climate models; rainfall; Indian Ocean; Walker circulation; global warming |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370201. Climate change processes |
370108. Meteorology | |
460207. Modelling and simulation | |
Public Notes | File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author. |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
Byline Affiliations | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia |
Department of Biological and Physical Sciences |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q06z0/simulation-of-the-indian-ocean-dipole-a-relevant-criterion-for-selecting-models-for-climate-projections
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