Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia
Article
Nguyen, Hanh, Wheeler, Matthew C., Otkin, Jason A., Cowan, Tim, Frost, Andrew and Stone, Roger. 2019. "Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia." Environmental Research Letters. 14 (6), pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2103
| Article Title | Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia |
|---|---|
| ERA Journal ID | 36365 |
| Article Category | Article |
| Authors | Nguyen, Hanh (Author), Wheeler, Matthew C. (Author), Otkin, Jason A. (Author), Cowan, Tim (Author), Frost, Andrew (Author) and Stone, Roger (Author) |
| Journal Title | Environmental Research Letters |
| Journal Citation | 14 (6), pp. 1-9 |
| Article Number | 064016 |
| Number of Pages | 9 |
| Year | 2019 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing |
| Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
| ISSN | 1748-9326 |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2103 |
| Web Address (URL) | https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2103 |
| Abstract | Flash drought is a term and concept that has gained increasing attention in the research literature and media since it was first coined in the United States in the early 2000s to describe a drought that has undergone rapid intensification. In Australia the term has recently been used in reference to the 2017/18 drought in eastern Australia. Due to its rapid intensification, the impacts of flash droughts will likely occur too quickly for many of the usual drought-coping mechanisms to be deployed. This study proposes the use of the evaporative stress index (ESI), the standardized anomaly of the actual evapotranspiration to potential evapotranspiration ratio, to identify flash droughts in Australia computed using daily outputs from the Bureau of Meteorology's land surface water balance model AWRA-L. The case study of the January 2018 flash drought in eastern Australia is used to assess and demonstrate the suitability of the ESI. Results show that the ESI accurately highlighted the event and offered potential for flash drought pre-warning by a few weeks. In addition, the availability of long term high-resolution outputs from AWRA-L offers the ability to investigate multiple flash drought events in detail for greater understanding and to inform stakeholders. |
| Keywords | evaporative stress index; Australia; flash drought |
| ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370108. Meteorology |
| 370202. Climatology | |
| Byline Affiliations | Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
| University of Wisconsin-Madison, United States | |
| Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | |
| Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
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Vautard, Robert, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Bellprat, Omar, Christiansen, Bo, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Tim, Doblas-Reyes, Francisco, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, Orth, Rene, Radanovics, Sabine, Seneviratne, Sonia I., ..., Yiou, Pascal. 2019. "Evaluation of the HadGEM3-A simulations in view of detection and attribution of human influence on extreme events in Europe." Climate Dynamics. 52 (1-2), pp. 1187-1210. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4183-6Index insurance benefits agricultural producers exposed to excessive rainfall risk
Kath, Jarrod, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Henry, Ross, Adeyinka, Adewuyi and Stone, Roger. 2018. "Index insurance benefits agricultural producers exposed to excessive rainfall risk." Weather and Climate Extremes. 22, pp. 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2018.10.003Toward a stochastic precipitation generator conditioned on ENSO phase for eastern Australia
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Stone, Roger, Ngo-Cong, Duc and Marcussen, Torben. 2017. "Toward a stochastic precipitation generator conditioned on ENSO phase for eastern Australia." Syme, G., Hatton MacDonald, D., Fulton, B. and Piantadosi, J. (ed.) 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2017). Hobart, Australia 03 - 08 Dec 2017 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2017.H11.anvoWas the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study
Christiansen, Bo, Alvarez-Castro, Carmen, Christidis, Nikolaos, Ciavarella, Andrew, Colfescu, Ioana, Cowan, Timothy, Eden, Jonathan, Hauser, Mathias, Hempelmann, Nils, Klehmet, Katharina, Lott, Fraser, Nangini, Cathy, van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan, Orth, Rene, Stott, Peter, Tett, Simon, Vautard, Robert, Wilcox, Laura and Yiou, Pascal. 2018. "Was the cold European winter of 2009/10 modified by anthropogenic climate change? An attribution study." Journal of Climate. 31 (9), pp. 3387-3410. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0589.1Improving the use of climate information in decision-making
Hewitt, Chris D., Stone, Roger C. and Tait, Andrew B.. 2017. "Improving the use of climate information in decision-making." Nature Climate Change. 7 (9), pp. 614-616. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3378Sweet success: virtual world tools enhance real world decision making in the Australian sugar industry
Reardon-Smith, Kate, Farley, Helen, Cliffe, Neil, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger, Doyle, Joanne, Martin, Neil, Ostini, Jenny, Maraseni, Tek, Marcussen, Torben, Loch, Adam and Lindesay, Janette. 2014. "Sweet success: virtual world tools enhance real world decision making in the Australian sugar industry." ICELW 2014: International Conference on e-Learning in the Workplace. New York, United States 11 - 13 Jun 2014Connecting the dots - climate information has no value unless it changes a management decision: Some illustrative cases
Stone, Roger C.. 2009. "Connecting the dots - climate information has no value unless it changes a management decision: Some illustrative cases." Wesley, Michael, Xinsheng, Wang and McMillen, Don (ed.) Non-traditional security in PRC - Australia relations: GLOBAL issues of common concern (2009). Guangzhou, China 02 - 04 Jul 2009 Brisbane, Australia.Economic assessment of various levels of improved wheat post head-emergence frost (PHEF) tolerance breeding options: final technical report
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Stone, Roger C., Christopher, Mandy, Chenu, Karine, Christopher, Jack T., Frederiks, Troy M., Zheng, Bangyou and Chapman, Scott. 2016. Economic assessment of various levels of improved wheat post head-emergence frost (PHEF) tolerance breeding options: final technical report. Australia. Grains Research and Development Corporation.Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Kodur, Shreevatsa and Stone, Roger. 2017. "Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study." 19th Biennial Conference of the Australian Rangeland Society. Port Augusta, Australia 25 - 28 Sep 2017 Australia.The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences
Hegerl, Gabriele C., Bronnimann, Stefan, Schurer, Andrew and Cowan, Tim. 2018. "The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences." WIREs Climate Change. 9 (4). https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.522Developing the capacity of farmers to understand and apply seasonal climate forecasts through collaborative learning processes
Cliffe, Neil, Stone, Roger, Coutts, Jeff, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn and Mushtaq, Shahbaz. 2016. "Developing the capacity of farmers to understand and apply seasonal climate forecasts through collaborative learning processes." Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension: international journal on changes in agricultural knowledge and action systems. 22 (4), pp. 311-325. https://doi.org/10.1080/1389224X.2016.1154473Queensland Cloud Seeding Research Program - QCSRP
Craig, Ian and Stone, Roger. 2008. "Queensland Cloud Seeding Research Program - QCSRP." USQ Research Showcase (2008). Toowoomba, Australia 05 Nov 2008Economic assessment of wheat breeding options for potential improved levels of post head-emergence frost tolerance
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Christopher, Mandy, Zheng, Bangyou, Chenu, Karine, Chapman, Scott C., Christopher, Jack T., Stone, Roger C., Frederiks, Troy M. and Alam, G. M. Monirul. 2017. "Economic assessment of wheat breeding options for potential improved levels of post head-emergence frost tolerance." Field Crops Research. 213, pp. 75-88. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2017.07.021Future strategies for climate services in agriculture: GFCS and collaborative implementation Australia / Western Pacific - national / regional implementation strategies
Stone, Roger. 2012. "Future strategies for climate services in agriculture: GFCS and collaborative implementation Australia / Western Pacific - national / regional implementation strategies." Joint International Symposium: ISAM 2012 and WMO-CAgM Climate Services for Agriculture: Best Practices and Future Strategies. Osaka, Japan 13 - 17 Mar 2012Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the great plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl
Cowan, Tim, Hegerl, Gabriele C., Colfescu, Ioana, Bollasina, Massimo, Purich, Ariaan and Boschat, Ghyslaine. 2017. "Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the great plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl." Journal of Climate. 30 (7), pp. 2437-2461. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0436.1Managing pest species under climate change: risks and opportunities
Reardon-Smith, Kathryn M., Stone, Roger C. and Le Brocque, Andrew F.. 2012. "Managing pest species under climate change: risks and opportunities." 4th Queensland Pest Animal Symposium. Caloundra, Queensland 30 Jul - 02 Aug 2012 Queensland, Australia.Robusta coffee model: an integrated model for coffee production at a regional scale
Kouadio, Louis, Stone, Roger, Tixier, Philippe, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Marcussen, Torben. 2015. "Robusta coffee model: an integrated model for coffee production at a regional scale." Tropical Agriculture Conference 2015: Meeting the Productivity Challenge in the Tropics (TropAg2015). Brisbane, Australia 16 - 18 Nov 2015Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes
Purich, Ariaan, Cai, Wenju, England, Matthew H. and Cowan, Tim. 2016. "Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes." Nature Communications. 7. https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10409Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves
Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S. E., White, C. J., Alexander, L. V., Argueso, D., Boschat, G., Cowan, T., Evans, J. P., Ekstrom, M., Oliver, E. C. J., Phatak, A. and Purich, A.. 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: heatwaves." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 139 (1), pp. 101-114. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1650-0Long-term streamflow trends in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin: Detecting drivers of change
Gao, Zhaoliang, Zhang, Lu, Zhang, Xiaoping, Cheng, Lei, Potter, Nick, Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2016. "Long-term streamflow trends in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin: Detecting drivers of change." Hydrological Processes. 30 (9), pp. 1315-1329. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10704On the use of composite analyses to form physical hypotheses: An example from heat wave - SST associations
Boschat, Ghyslaine, Simmonds, Ian, Purich, Purich, Cowan, Tim and Pezza, Alexandre Bernardes. 2016. "On the use of composite analyses to form physical hypotheses: An example from heat wave - SST associations." Scientific Reports. 6. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep29599Virtual discussions to support climate risk decision making on farms
Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Farley, Helen S., Cliffe, Neil, Stone, Roger C., Ostini, Jenny, Doyle, Joanne, Martin, Neil, Loch, Adam, Maraseni, Tek, Marcussen, Torben and Lindesay, Janette. 2015. "Virtual discussions to support climate risk decision making on farms." Journal of Economic and Social Policy. 17 (2).Putting virtual worlds to work to support improved climate risk decision-making on real world farms
Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger, Cliffe, Neil, Farley, Helen, Ostini, Jenny, Doyle, Joanne, Martin, Neil and Loch, Adam. 2015. "Putting virtual worlds to work to support improved climate risk decision-making on real world farms." 2nd International Conference on Global Food Security. Cornell University, Ithaca, United States 11 - 14 Oct 2015Virtual world technologies to enhance climate risk management on Australian sugar cane farms
Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger, Cliffe, Neil, Farley, Helen, Ostini, Jenny, Doyle, Joanne, Martin, Neil, Maraseni, Tek, Marcussen, Torben, Loch, Adam and Lindesay, Janette. 2014. "Virtual world technologies to enhance climate risk management on Australian sugar cane farms." Climate Adaptation (NCCARF 2014): Future Challenges. Gold Coast, Australia 30 Sep - 02 Oct 2014 Gold Coast, Australia.Applications program examples 2015
Pudmenzky, Christa and Stone, Roger. 2015. "Applications program examples 2015." 8th Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth Workshop (ACRE 2015). Santiago, Chile 12 - 14 Oct 2015 Chile.Groundwater storage trends in the Loess Plateau of China estimated from streamflow records
Gao, Zhaoliang, Zhang, Lu, Cheng, Lei, Zhang, Xiaoping, Cowan, Tim, Cai, Wenju and Brutsaert, Wilfried. 2015. "Groundwater storage trends in the Loess Plateau of China estimated from streamflow records." Journal of Hydrology. 530, pp. 281-290. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2015.09.063The Response of the Indian Ocean Dipole Asymmetry to Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases
Cowan, Tim, Cai, Wenju, Ng, Benjamin and England, Matthew. 2015. "The Response of the Indian Ocean Dipole Asymmetry to Anthropogenic Aerosols and Greenhouse Gases ." Journal of Climate. 28 (7), pp. 2564-2583. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00661.1Large scale and sub-regional connections in the lead up to summer heat wave and extreme rainfall events in eastern Australia
Boschat, Ghyslaine, Pezza, Alexandre, Simmonds, Ian, Perkins, Sarah, Cowan, Tim and Purich, Ariaan. 2015. "Large scale and sub-regional connections in the lead up to summer heat wave and extreme rainfall events in eastern Australia." Climate Dynamics. 44 (7-8), pp. 1823-1840. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2214-5The development of virtual world tools to enhance learning and real world decision making in the Australian sugar farming industry
Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Farley, Helen, Cliffe, Neil, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger, Doyle, Joanne, Martin, Neil, Ostini, Jenny, Maraseni, Tek, Marcussen, Torben, Loch, Adam and Lindesay, Janette. 2014. "The development of virtual world tools to enhance learning and real world decision making in the Australian sugar farming industry." International Journal of Advanced Corporate Learning. 7 (3), pp. 17-23. https://doi.org/10.3991/ijac.v7i3.4002Constructing a framework for national drought policy: the way forward: the way Australia developed and implemented the national drought policy
Stone, Roger C.. 2014. "Constructing a framework for national drought policy: the way forward: the way Australia developed and implemented the national drought policy." Weather and Climate Extremes. 3, pp. 117-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2014.02.001Using a virtual world to enable real world decision making
Reardon-Smith, Kate, Farley, Helen, Stone, Roger, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cliffe, Neil, Doyle, Joanne, Martin, Neil, Maraseni, Tek, Marcussen, Torben, Lindesay, Janette, Loch, Adam and Kealley, Matt. 2013. "Using a virtual world to enable real world decision making." Lamb, David (ed.) 1st Digital Rural Futures Conference: Smart Farms - Smart Regions (DRF 2013). Armidale, Australia 26 - 28 Jun 2013 Armidale, Australia.Future projections of Australian heat wave number and intensity based on CMIP5 models
Cowan, Tim, Purich, Ariaan, Boschat, Ghyslaine and Perkins, Sarah. 2014. "Future projections of Australian heat wave number and intensity based on CMIP5 models." Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. 27 (6), pp. 134-139.Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with Southern Australian heat waves: A CMIP5 analysis
Purich, Ariaan, Cowan, Tim, Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Uotila, Petteri, Pezza, Alexandre, Boschat, Ghyslaine and Perkins, Sarah. 2014. "Atmospheric and oceanic conditions associated with Southern Australian heat waves: A CMIP5 analysis." Journal of Climate. 27 (20), pp. 7807-7829. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00098.1More frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves for Australia in the Twenty-First Century
Cowan, Tim, Purich, Ariaan, Perkins, Sarah, Pezza, Alexandre, Boschat, Ghyslaine and Sadler, Katherine. 2014. "More frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves for Australia in the Twenty-First Century." Journal of Climate. 27 (15), pp. 5851-5871. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00092.1What is driving the fast warming rate of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude ocean?
Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2014. "What is driving the fast warming rate of the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude ocean?" OCEANS'10 IEEE Sydney. Sydney, Australia 24 - 27 May 2010 Australia. https://doi.org/10.1109/OCEANSSYD.2010.5603876Did climate change-induced rainfall trends contribute to the Australian Millennium drought?
Cai, Wenju, Purich, Ariaan, Cowan, Tim, van Rensch, Peter and Weller, Weller. 2014. "Did climate change-induced rainfall trends contribute to the Australian Millennium drought?" Journal of Climate. 27 (9), pp. 3145-3168. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00322.1A blueprint for sustainable groundwater management in Balochistan, Pakistan
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Stone, Roger and Khair, Syed Mohammad. 2013. "A blueprint for sustainable groundwater management in Balochistan, Pakistan." Griffiths, Jacqui and Lambert, Rebecca (ed.) Free flow: reaching water security through cooperation . Paris, France. UNESCO . pp. 222-224Trialling a web-based 'discussion-support' tool in the Australian sugar industry: stakeholder responses are encouraging
Cliffe, Neil, Stone, Roger, Coutts, Jeff, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Reardon-Smith, Kathryn. 2013. "Trialling a web-based 'discussion-support' tool in the Australian sugar industry: stakeholder responses are encouraging." Westbrooke, Victoria (ed.) Australia-Pacific Extension Network International Conference (APEN ICNZ 2013): Transformative Change: Chosen or Unchosen Pathways to Innovation, Resilience and Prosperity . Christchurch, New Zealand 26 - 28 Aug 2013Scientific research in the drought policy process
Stone, Roger and Cockfield, Geoff. 2013. "Scientific research in the drought policy process." Botterill, Linda Courtenay and Cockfield, Geoff (ed.) Drought, risk management, and policy: decision-making under uncertainty. Boca Raton, FL. United States. CRC Press. pp. 105-116El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?
Pudmenzky, Christa, Stone, Roger, Butler, Harry and Allan, Robert. 2011. "El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?" 4th Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth Workshop (ACRE 2011). De Bilt, The Netherlands 21 - 23 Sep 2011Food and water security issues - Australia
Stone, Roger C. and Mushtaq, Shahbaz. 2012. "Food and water security issues - Australia." Symposium on Synergistic Approaches to Food and Water Security (ISSAFWS 2012). Fairfax, United States 17 - 19 Oct 2012 Fairfax, VA. United States.The Queensland cloud seeding research program
Tessendorf, Sarah A., Bruintjes, Roelof T., Weeks, Courtney, Wilson, James W., Knight, Charles A., Roberts, Rita D., Peter, Justin R., Collis, Scott, Buseck, Peter R., Freney, Evelyn, Dixon, Michael, Pocernich, Matthew, Ikeda, Kyoko, Axisa, Duncan, Nelson, Eric, May, Peter T., Richter, Harald, Piketh, Stuart, Burger, Roelof P., ..., McRae, David. 2012. "The Queensland cloud seeding research program ." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 93 (1), pp. 75-90. https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-d-11-00060.1Application of seasonal prediction on sugar cane
Stone, Roger C., Everingham, Yvette and Marcussen, Torben. 2012. "Application of seasonal prediction on sugar cane." Day, Keith A. (ed.) 6th Annual Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Workshop (CAWCR 2012): Understanding and Prediction of Monsoon Weather and Climate. Melbourne, Australia 12 - 15 Nov 2012 Melbourne, Australia.Supporting decision-making in the sugar industry with integrated seasonal climate forecasting
Stone, Roger C., Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Marcussen, Torben, Cliffe, Neil, Brunton, Lynda and Everingham, Yvette. 2012. "Supporting decision-making in the sugar industry with integrated seasonal climate forecasting." Global Framework for Climate Services User Conference (GFCS 2012): A Dialogue for Climate Services Users and Providers: Towards Implementation of the GFCS. Geneva, Switzerland 26 - 27 Oct 2012 Geneva, Switzerland.Supporting decision-making in the sugar industry with integrated seasonal climate forecasting
Stone, Roger C., Cliffe, Neil, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Everingham, Yvette. 2012. "Supporting decision-making in the sugar industry with integrated seasonal climate forecasting." Climate exchange, 2nd ed.. Geneva, Switzerland . Tudor Rose. pp. 46-49Understanding hydroclimate processes in the Murray-Darling basin for natural resources management
Gallant, A. J. E., Kiem, A. S., Verdon-Kidd, D. C., Stone, R. C. and Karoly, D. J.. 2012. "Understanding hydroclimate processes in the Murray-Darling basin for natural resources management." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 16 (7), pp. 2049-2068. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-2049-2012Climate variability analysis for Diuron application
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger, Marcussen, Torben, Pudmenzky, Christa and Maraseni, Tek. 2012. Climate variability analysis for Diuron application. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.Agricultural resilience to extreme weather events: taking stock of and reanalysing dependencies and history in climate risk management
Best, Peter, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Stone, Roger. 2009. "Agricultural resilience to extreme weather events: taking stock of and reanalysing dependencies and history in climate risk management." 2009 International Workshop on the Content, Communication and Use of Weather and Climate Products and Services to Sustainable Agriculture (WMO 2009). Toowoomba, Australia 18 - 20 May 2009 Geneva, Switzerland .Supporting Decision-Making in the Sugar Cane Industry with Integrated Seasonal Climate Forecasting
Stone, Roger, Everingham, Yvette, Pudmenzky, Christa and Marcussen, Torben. 2013. "Supporting Decision-Making in the Sugar Cane Industry with Integrated Seasonal Climate Forecasting." Climate Adaptation 2013 (NCCARF 2013). Sydney, Australia 25 - 27 Jun 2013 Australia.Autumn precipitation trends over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes as simulated by CMIP5 models
Purich, Ariaan, Cowan, Tim, Min, Seung-Ki and Cai, Wenju. 2013. "Autumn precipitation trends over Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes as simulated by CMIP5 models." Journal of Climate. 26 (21), pp. 8341-8356. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00007.1Annual sea surface temperature lag as an indicator of regional climate variability
Li, Chung-Leong, Bye, John A.T., Gallagher, Stephen J. and Cowan, Tim. 2013. "Annual sea surface temperature lag as an indicator of regional climate variability." International Journal of Climatology. 33 (10), pp. 2309-2317. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3587The association of tropical and extratropical climate modes to atmospheric blocking across southeastern Australia
Cowan, Tim, van Rensch, Peter, Purich, Ariaan and Cai, Wenju. 2013. "The association of tropical and extratropical climate modes to atmospheric blocking across southeastern Australia." Journal of Climate. 26 (19), pp. 7555-7569. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00781.1Forcing of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature trends of the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean
Cowan, Tim, Cai, Wenju, Purich, Ariaan, Rotstayn, Leon and England, Matthew H.. 2013. "Forcing of anthropogenic aerosols on temperature trends of the sub-thermocline southern Indian Ocean." Scientific Reports. 3. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep02245The response of the large-scale ocean circulation to 20th century Asian and non-Asian aerosols
Cowan, T. and Cai, W.. 2013. "The response of the large-scale ocean circulation to 20th century Asian and non-Asian aerosols." Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (11), pp. 2761-2767. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50587Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming
Cai, Wenju, Zheng, Xiao-Tong, Weller, Evan, Collins, Mat, Cowan, Tim, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Yu, Weidong and Yamagata, Toshio. 2013. "Projected response of the Indian Ocean Dipole to greenhouse warming." Nature Geoscience. 6 (12), pp. 999-1007. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2009Southeast Australia autumn rainfall reduction: A climate-change-induced poleward shift of ocean-atmosphere circulation
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2013. "Southeast Australia autumn rainfall reduction: A climate-change-induced poleward shift of ocean-atmosphere circulation." Journal of Climate. 26 (1), pp. 189-205. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00035.1Why is the amplitude of the Indian ocean dipole overly large in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models?
Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2013. "Why is the amplitude of the Indian ocean dipole overly large in CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate models?" Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (6), pp. 1200-1205. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50208Web-based 'discussion-support' agricultural climate information for regional India
Stone, Roger C., Reushle, Shirley and Reddy, Raji. 2012. "Web-based 'discussion-support' agricultural climate information for regional India." APN Science Bulletin.Principles of short and medium term climate forecasting - what's driving our climate and how accurate have Northern Grains Region forecasts been in the last decade?
Stone, Roger C.. 2011. "Principles of short and medium term climate forecasting - what's driving our climate and how accurate have Northern Grains Region forecasts been in the last decade?" 2011 GRDC Advisor Update, Goondiwindi. Goondiwindi, Australia 02 - 03 Mar 2011 Canberra, Australia.El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?
Pudmenzky, Christa, Stone, Roger and Butler, Harry. 2011. "El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?" WCRP 2011: Climate Research in Service to Society. Denver, United States 24 - 28 Oct 2011 Geneva, Switzerland.Climate outlook and review 2 June 2011
Stone, Roger. 2011. "Climate outlook and review 2 June 2011." Climate Outlook and Review.Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections
Cai, W., Sullivan, A., Cowan, T., Ribbe, J. and Shi, G.. 2011. "Simulation of the Indian Ocean Dipole: a relevant criterion for selecting models for climate projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (3), pp. 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046242Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold, Ribbe, Joachim and Shi, Ge. 2011. "Are anthropogenic aerosols responsible for the northwest Australia summer rainfall increase? A CMIP3 perspective and implications." Journal of Climate. 24 (10), pp. 2556-2564. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3832.1The international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative
Allan, Rob, Brohan, Philip, Compo, Gilbert P., Stone, Roger, Luterbacher, Juerg and Bronnimann, Stefan. 2011. "The international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 92 (11), pp. 1421-1425. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3218.1An Asymmetry in the IOD and ENSO teleconnection pathway and its impact on australian climate
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Hendon, Harry H.. 2012. "An Asymmetry in the IOD and ENSO teleconnection pathway and its impact on australian climate." Journal of Climate. 25 (18), pp. 6318-6329. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00501.1Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions: The role of subtropical dry zone expansion
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim and Thatcher, Marcus. 2012. "Rainfall reductions over Southern Hemisphere semi-arid regions: The role of subtropical dry zone expansion." Scientific Reports. 2. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00702Editorial
Stone, Roger, Sivakumar, M. V. K. and Burt, Peter. 2006. "Editorial ." Meteorological Applications. 13 (S1), pp. 3-5. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482706002507Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling
Shi, Ge, Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Ribbe, Joachim, Rotstayn, Leon and Dix, Martin. 2008. "Variability and trend of the north west Australia rainfall: observations and coupled climate modeling." Journal of Climate. 21 (12), pp. 2938-2959. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1908.1An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2008. "An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections." Geophysical Research Letters. 35 (2), p. L2072. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032436Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Dix, Martin, Rotstayn, Leon, Ribbe, Joachim, Shi, Ge and Wijffels, Susan. 2007. "Anthropogenic aerosol forcing and the structure of temperature trends in the southern Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (14), p. L14611. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030380Positive feedbacks between the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the global El Nino-Southern Oscillation
White, Warren B., Chen, Shyh-Chin, Allan, Robert J. and Stone, Roger C.. 2002. "Positive feedbacks between the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the global El Nino-Southern Oscillation ." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 107 (10), pp. 3165-3177. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000581Is there an Indian Ocean dipole and is it independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation?
Allan, Robert J., Chambers, Don, Drosdowsky, Wasyl, Hendon, Harry, Latif, Mojib, Nicholls, Neville, Smith, Ian, Stone, Roger C. and Tourre, Yves. 2001. "Is there an Indian Ocean dipole and is it independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation?" CLIVAR Exchanges. 6 (3), pp. 18-22.Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: The new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations
Meinke, Holger and Stone, Roger C.. 2005. "Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: The new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 70 (1-2), pp. 221-253. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5948-6Weather, climate and farmers: an overview
Stone, Roger C. and Meinke, Holger. 2006. "Weather, climate and farmers: an overview." Meteorological Applications. 13 (S1), pp. 7-20. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482706002519Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean
Shi, G., Ribbe, J., Cai, W. and Cowan, T.. 2007. "Multidecadal variability in the transmission of ENSO signals to the Indian Ocean." Geophysical Research Letters. 34 (9), p. L09706. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029528Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew, Maia, Aline de H. N., White, Neil, Stone, Roger C. and Ribbe, Joachim. 2006. "Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts." Vera, Carolina (ed.) 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (8ICSHMO): Understanding and Predicting Climate and Water Resources, their Variability and Change in the Southern Hemisphere. Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 24 - 28 Apr 2006 Washington, DC. United States.Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Maia, Aline de H. N., Wheeler, Matthew, Stone, Roger C., Ribbe, Joachim and White, Neil. 2006. "Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall." Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (9), p. L09704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025155The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming
Cai, W., Shi, G., Cowan, T., Bi, D. and Ribbe, J.. 2005. "The response of the southern annular mode, the east Australian current, and the southern mid-latitude ocean circulation to global warming." Geophysical Research Letters. 32 (23), pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024701Submission to the House of Representatives Industry, Science and Innovation Committee Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia. Submission no. 10
Stone, Roger. 2009. "Submission to the House of Representatives Industry, Science and Innovation Committee Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia. Submission no. 10 ." Seasonal forecasting in Australia. Canberra, Australia. Commonwealth of Australia. pp. 1-8Short and long term weather prospects: recent breakthroughs in the understanding of climate patterns and climate change and their impacts on crop yields
Stone, Roger. 2006. "Short and long term weather prospects: recent breakthroughs in the understanding of climate patterns and climate change and their impacts on crop yields." 1st CropLife Australia Perspectives Conference 2006. Sydney 28 Nov 2006 Canberra, Australia.The value of an integrated approach to climate applications modelling
Stone, Roger C. and Meinke, Holger. 2006. "The value of an integrated approach to climate applications modelling." Hollis, A. J. and Kariko, A. P. (ed.) 18th Annual Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre Modelling Workshop. The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS): Challenges and Opportunities (BMRC 2006) . Melbourne, Australia 28 Nov - 01 Dec 2006 Melbourne, Australia.Drought risks and vulnerability in rainfed agriculture: example of a case study in Australia
Stone, Roger C. and Potgieter, Andries. 2008. "Drought risks and vulnerability in rainfed agriculture: example of a case study in Australia." Options Mediterraneennes.Impacts and adaptation response of infrastructure and communities to heatwaves: the southern Australian experience of 2009
Best, Peter, Marcussen, Torben, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger C., Reeves, Jim, Foelz, Colleen, Grace, Peter, Loughnan, Margaret, McEvoy, Darryn, Ahmed, Ifte, Mullett, Jane, Haynes, Katharine, Bird, Deanne, Coates, Lucinda and Ling, Megan. 2010. Impacts and adaptation response of infrastructure and communities to heatwaves: the southern Australian experience of 2009. Gold Coast, Australia. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF).Climate outlook and review 5 April 2010
Stone, Roger C.. 2010. "Climate outlook and review 5 April 2010." Climate Outlook and Review.An application of demerit point approach in selection of most suitable climate models to characterise the potential climate change impact on regional Australia
Stone, Roger C., Marcussen, Torben and Mushtaq, Shahbaz. 2010. "An application of demerit point approach in selection of most suitable climate models to characterise the potential climate change impact on regional Australia." American Geophysical Union 2010 Fall Meeting. San Francisco, United States 13 - 17 Dec 2010 Washington, DC United States.El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide a key to the future?
Pudmenzky, C., Stone, R., Butler, H. and Allan, R.. 2011. "El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide a key to the future?" American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011. San Francisco, California, United States 05 - 09 Dec 2011 United States.The impact of Asian and non-Asian anthropogenic aerosols on 20th century Asian summer monsoon
Cowan, T. and Cai, W.. 2011. "The impact of Asian and non-Asian anthropogenic aerosols on 20th century Asian summer monsoon." Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (11). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047268Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Hendon, Harry H.. 2011. "Teleconnection pathways of ENSO and the IOD and the mechanisms for impacts on Australian rainfall." Journal of Climate. 24 (15), pp. 3910-3923. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4129.1Influence of global-scale variability on the subtropical ridge over Southeast Australia
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter and Cowan, Tim. 2011. "Influence of global-scale variability on the subtropical ridge over Southeast Australia." Journal of Climate. 24 (23), pp. 6035-6053. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4149.1Does the Southern Annular Mode contribute to the persistence of the multidecade-long drought over southwest Western Australia?
Cai, W., van Rensch, P., Borlace, S. and Cowan, T.. 2011. "Does the Southern Annular Mode contribute to the persistence of the multidecade-long drought over southwest Western Australia?" Geophysical Research Letters. 38 (14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047943Interactions of ENSO, the IOD, and the SAM in CMIP3 models
Cai, Wenju, Sullivan, Arnold and Cowan, T.. 2011. "Interactions of ENSO, the IOD, and the SAM in CMIP3 models." Journal of Climate. 24 (6), pp. 1688-1704. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3744.1Interim report on the Southeast Queensland Cloud Seeding Research Program
Tessendorf, Sarah, Bruintjes, Roelof, Dixon, Mike, Pocernich, Matt, Brandes, Ed, Wilson, Jim, Roberts, Rita, Ikeda, Kyoko, Axisa, Duncan, Craig, Ian, Peter, Justin, May, Peter, Keenan, Tom, Manton, Michael, Stone, Roger C., Yates, David, Towler, Erin, Bringi, V. and Thurai, M.. 2008. Interim report on the Southeast Queensland Cloud Seeding Research Program. Boulder, CO. United States. National Center for Atmospheric Research.A comparison of two seasonal rainfall forecasting systems for Australia
Fawcett, R. J. B. and Stone, R. C.. 2010. "A comparison of two seasonal rainfall forecasting systems for Australia." Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal. 60 (1), pp. 15-24.Prospects for and value of long-time series data using global reanalysis data sets in the development of global climate derivatives
Stone, Roger C., Best, Peter and Sosenko, Olena. 2008. "Prospects for and value of long-time series data using global reanalysis data sets in the development of global climate derivatives." 2008 International Conference on Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications. Zurich, Switzerland 23 - 25 Jun 2008Climate risk management for agriculture: the Australian experience
Stone, Roger C.. 2010. "Climate risk management for agriculture: the Australian experience." CCl-XV UN World Meteorological Organisation Commission for Climatology: Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services for Sustainable Development. Antalya, Turkey 16 - 18 Feb 2010 Geneva, Switzerland.Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?
Shi, Ge, Ribbe, Joachim, Cowan, Tim, Sullivan, Arnold and Cai, Wenju. 2010. "Do IPCC AR4 models produce the rainfall increase over Northwest Australia?" Burns, Barbara A., Davis, Clem, Kiss, Andrew E. and Taylor, John R. (ed.) 17th National Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society: Atmosphere, Oceans, Environment and Society. Canberra, Australia 27 - 29 Jan 2010 Geelong, Victoria, Australia.Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?
Meinke, Holger, deVoil, Peter, Hammer, Graeme L., Power, Scott, Allan, Robert J., Stone, Roger C., Folland, Chris K. and Potgieter, Andries B.. 2005. "Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?" Journal of Climate. 18 (1), pp. 89-90. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3263.1Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis
Meinke, Holger, Nelson, Rohan, Kokic, Phil, Stone, Roger, Selvaraju, Ramasamy and Baethgen, Walter. 2006. "Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis." Climate Research. 33 (1), pp. 101-110. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr033101Inferential, nonparametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems
Maia, Aline de H. N., Meinke, Holger, Lennox, Sarah and Stone, Roger. 2007. "Inferential, nonparametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems." Monthly Weather Review. 135 (2), pp. 351-362. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3291.1El Nino through the 'eyes' of a wheat crop
Potgieter, Andries B., Hammer, Graeme L., Meinke, Holger, Stone, Roger C. and Goddard, Lisa. 2003. "El Nino through the 'eyes' of a wheat crop." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.Drought and climate forecasting in an Australian context
Stone, Roger C., Fawcett, Robert, Everingham, Yvette L. and Pinington, Greg. 2003. "Drought and climate forecasting in an Australian context." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) Science for drought: proceedings of the National Drought Forum. Brisbane, Australia. Queensland Department of Primary Industries. pp. 41-48How human-induced aerosols influence the ocean–atmosphere circulation: a review
Cowan, Tim and Cai, Wenju. 2010. "How human-induced aerosols influence the ocean–atmosphere circulation: a review." Jubb, Imogen, Holper, Paul and Cai, Wenju (ed.) Managing Climate Change. Australia. CSIRO Publishing. pp. 65-72Impacts of precipitation and temperature changes on annual streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin
Yu, Jingjie, Fu, Guobin, Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2010. "Impacts of precipitation and temperature changes on annual streamflow in the Murray-Darling Basin." Water International. 35 (3), pp. 313-323. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2010.484907Asymmetry in ENSO teleconnection with regional rainfall, its multidecadal variability, and impact
Cai, Wenju, van Rensch, Peter, Cowan, Tim and Sullivan, Arnold. 2010. "Asymmetry in ENSO teleconnection with regional rainfall, its multidecadal variability, and impact." Journal of Climate. 23 (18), pp. 4944-4955. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3501.1Simulations of processes associated with the fast warming rate of the southern midlatitude ocean
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Godfrey, Stuart and Wijffels, Susan. 2010. "Simulations of processes associated with the fast warming rate of the southern midlatitude ocean." Journal of Climate. 23 (1), pp. 197-206. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3081.1Comment on "On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood" by Lockart et al
Cai, Wenju, Cowan, Tim, Braganza, Karl, Jones, David and Risbey, James. 2010. "Comment on "On the recent warming in the Murray-Darling Basin: Land surface interactions misunderstood" by Lockart et al." Geophysical Research Letters. 37 (10). https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL042254On potential causes for an under-estimated global ocean heat content trend in CMIP3 models
Cai, W., Cowan, T., Arblaster, J. M. and Wijffels, S.. 2010. "On potential causes for an under-estimated global ocean heat content trend in CMIP3 models." Geophysical Research Letters. 37 (17). https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL044399A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields
Bye, John A.T., Cai, Wenju and Cowan, Tim. 2010. "A New Index for Tropical Cyclone Development from Sea Surface Temperature and Evaporation Fields ." Hurricanes and Climate Change. United States. Springer. pp. 101-120An assessment of relationships between the Australian subtropical ridge, rainfall variability, and high-latitude circulation patterns
Williams, Allyson A. J. and Stone, Roger C.. 2009. "An assessment of relationships between the Australian subtropical ridge, rainfall variability, and high-latitude circulation patterns." International Journal of Climatology. 29 (5), pp. 691-709. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1732Preliminary observations of cloud and precipitation characteristics in the Brisbane, Australia region
Tessendorf, Sarah, Bruintjes, Roelof, Wilson, James, Brandes, Ed, May, Peter, Peter, Justin, Craig, Ian, Stone, Roger C., Siems, Steve, Manton, Michael and Axisa, Duncan. 2008. "Preliminary observations of cloud and precipitation characteristics in the Brisbane, Australia region." Golden, Joe (ed.) 17th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification (AMS/WMA 2008). Denver, United States 21 - 25 Apr 2008 Boston, MA. United States.