Central Pacific El Niño as a precursor to summer drought-breaking rainfall over southeastern Australia

Article

Freund, Mandy B., Marshall, Andrew G., Wheeler, Matthew C. and Brown, Jaclyn N.. 2021. "Central Pacific El Niño as a precursor to summer drought-breaking rainfall over southeastern Australia." Geophysical Research Letters. 48 (7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091131
Article Title

Central Pacific El Niño as a precursor to summer drought-breaking rainfall over southeastern Australia

ERA Journal ID1874
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsFreund, Mandy B., Marshall, Andrew G., Wheeler, Matthew C. and Brown, Jaclyn N.
Journal TitleGeophysical Research Letters
Journal Citation48 (7)
Article Numbere2020GL091131
Number of Pages9
Year2021
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0094-8276
1944-8007
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091131
Web Address (URL)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL091131
Abstract

Using an extended 120-year record of El Niño events, we distinguish between central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) types to show that the strength of CP events is a factor in the amplitude and sign of the impact on rainfall over southeastern Australia. Both weak and strong CP events cause widespread rainfall deficits in Australia during the onset phase from April to September. However, this relationship reverses over southeastern Australia including the Murray Darling Basin river catchment region for the strongest CP events after October, leading to positive rainfall anomalies during the mature phase of strong CP El Niños. This reversal can be explained by a change in the circulation over eastern Australia from drier, more westerly orientated flow to moister, more easterly onshore flow. These findings may help with seasonal prediction efforts to predict drought-breaking rain such as occurred in early 2020.

KeywordsEl Niño
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370105. Atmospheric dynamics
Public Notes

The accessible file is the accepted version of the paper. Please refer to the URL for the published version.

Byline AffiliationsCommonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
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Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger C., Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland." 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography 2003: Southern Ocean Weather and Climate Variability: Regional and Global Effects. Wellington, New Zealand 24 - 28 Mar 2003 Boston, MA. United States.
Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew and Ribbe, Joachim. 2004. "Forecasting with the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the applications for risk management." 4th International Crop Science Congress (ICSC 2004): New Directions for a Diverse Planet. Brisbane, Australia 26 Sep - 01 Oct 2004 Brisbane, Australia.