ACCESS-S2 seasonal forecasts of rainfall and the SAM–rainfall relationship during the grain growing season in south-west Western Australia

Article


Firth, Rebecca, Kala, Jatin, Hudson, Debra, Hawke, Kerryn and Marshall, Andrew. 2024. "ACCESS-S2 seasonal forecasts of rainfall and the SAM–rainfall relationship during the grain growing season in south-west Western Australia." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 74 (3). https://doi.org/10.1071/ES24004
Article Title

ACCESS-S2 seasonal forecasts of rainfall and the SAM–rainfall relationship during the grain growing season in south-west Western Australia

ERA Journal ID1958
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsFirth, Rebecca, Kala, Jatin, Hudson, Debra, Hawke, Kerryn and Marshall, Andrew
Journal TitleJournal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
Journal Citation74 (3)
Article NumberES24004
Number of Pages17
Year2024
PublisherCSIRO Publishing
Place of PublicationAustralia
ISSN1836-716X
2206-5865
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1071/ES24004
Web Address (URL)https://www.publish.csiro.au/ES/ES24004
AbstractSouth-west Western Australia (SWWA) is home to a world class grains industry that is significantly affected by periods of drought. Previous research has shown a link between the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and rainfall in SWWA, especially during winter months. Hence, the predictability of the SAM and its relationship to SWWA rainfall can potentially improve forecasts of SWWA drought, which would provide valuable information for farmers. In this paper, focusing on the 0-month lead time forecast, we assess the bias and skill of ACCESS-S2, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s current operational sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting system, in simulating seasonal rainfall for SWWA during the growing season (May–October). We then analyse the relationship between the SAM and SWWA precipitation and how well this is captured in ACCESS-S2 as well as how well ACCESS-S2 forecasts the monthly SAM index. Finally, ACCESS-S2 rainfall forecasts and the simulation of SAM are assessed for a case study of extreme drought in 2010. Our results show that forecasts tend to have greater skill in the earlier part of the season (May–July). ACCESS-S2 captures the significant inverse SAM–rainfall relationship but underestimates its strength. The model also shows overall skill in forecasting the monthly SAM index and simulating the MSLP and 850-hPa wind anomaly patterns associated with positive and negative SAM phases. However, for the 2010 drought case study, ACCESS-S2 does not indicate strong likelihoods of the upcoming dry conditions, particularly for later in the growing season, despite predicting a positive (although weaker than observed) SAM index. Although ACCESS-S2 is shown to skillfully depict the SAM–SWWA rainfall relationship and generally forecast the SAM index well, the seasonal rainfall forecasts still show limited skill. Hence it is likely that model errors unrelated to the SAM are contributing to limited skill in seasonal rainfall forecasts for SWWA, as well as the generally low seasonal-timescale predictability for the region.
KeywordsACCESS-S2; agriculture; Bureau of Meteorolog; model evaluation; rainfall; seasonal climate forecasting; Southern Annular Mode; south-west Western Australia; wheatbelt
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370105. Atmospheric dynamics
Byline AffiliationsMurdoch University
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z99v7/access-s2-seasonal-forecasts-of-rainfall-and-the-sam-rainfall-relationship-during-the-grain-growing-season-in-south-west-western-australia

Download files


Published Version
ES24004.pdf
License: CC BY-NC-ND
File access level: Anyone

  • 6
    total views
  • 3
    total downloads
  • 6
    views this month
  • 3
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Impacts of the new UM convection scheme, CoMorph-A, over the Indo-Pacific and Australian regions
Zhou, Hongyan, Hudson, Debra, Li, Chen, Shi, Li, White, Bethan, Young, Griffith, Stirling, Alison, Whitall, Michael, Lock, Adrian, Lavender, Sally and Stratton, Rachel. 2024. "Impacts of the new UM convection scheme, CoMorph-A, over the Indo-Pacific and Australian regions." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 74 (3). https://doi.org/10.1071/ES23011
Correction: Taylor et al. A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 470
Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J. and Harris, Sarah. 2024. "Correction: Taylor et al. A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 470 ." Atmosphere. 15 (7). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070801
Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger
Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G. Marsha, Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J., Harris, Sarah and Sauvage, Samuel. 2024. "Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger." International Journal of Wildland Fire. 33 (1). https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23060
A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia
Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J. and Harris, Sarah. 2024. "A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia." Atmosphere. 15 (4). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040470
Sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers of regional marine heatwaves around Australia
Gregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Marshall, Andrew G. and Spillman, Claire M.. 2024. "Sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers of regional marine heatwaves around Australia." Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07226-x
Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef
Gregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Spillman, Claire M. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2024. "Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef." Geophysical Research Letters. 51 (13). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108810
Observed climatology and variability of cattle heat stress in Australia
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Cobon, David H., Gaughan, John B., Marshall, Andrew G., Sharples, Wendy, McCulloch, Jillian and Jarvis, Chelsea. 2024. "Observed climatology and variability of cattle heat stress in Australia." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 63 (5), pp. 645-663. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0082.1
Climate Driver Influences on Prediction of the Australian Fire Behaviour Index
Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J. and Harris, Sarah. 2024. "Climate Driver Influences on Prediction of the Australian Fire Behaviour Index." Atmosphere. 15 (2). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15020203
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation influence on Australian summer rainfall
Jiang, Xiaoxuan, Holbrook, Neil J., Marshall, Andrew G. and Love, Peter T.. 2024. "Quasi-Biennial Oscillation influence on Australian summer rainfall." Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 7 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00552-7
Observing and forecasting the retreat of northern Australia’s rainy season
Cowan, Tim, Hinds, Emily, Marshall, Andrew G., Wheeler, Matthew C. and Burgh-Day, Catherine. 2024. "Observing and forecasting the retreat of northern Australia’s rainy season." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 74 (1). https://doi.org/10.1071/ES23022
Atmospheric water vapour transport in ACCESS-S2 and the potential for enhancing skill of subseasonal forecasts of precipitation
Reid, Kimberley J., Hudson, Debra, King, Andrew D., Lane, Todd P. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2024. "Atmospheric water vapour transport in ACCESS-S2 and the potential for enhancing skill of subseasonal forecasts of precipitation." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 150 (758), pp. 68-80. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4585
Madden-Julian Oscillation Impacts on Australian Temperatures and Extremes
Marshall, Andrew G., Wheeler, Mathew C. and Cowan, Tim. 2023. "Madden-Julian Oscillation Impacts on Australian Temperatures and Extremes." Journal of Climate. 36 (2), pp. 335-357. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0413.1
The Combined Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Mathew C. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2023. "The Combined Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall." Journal of Climate. 36 (2), pp. 313-334. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0357.1
Skill of ACCESS-S2 in predicting rainfall bursts over Australia
Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Hudson, Debra, de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Griffiths, Morwenna and Young, Griffith. 2022. Skill of ACCESS-S2 in predicting rainfall bursts over Australia. Australia. Bureau of Meteorology.
The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights
Lavender, Sally L., Cowan, Tim, Hawcroft, Matthew, Wheeler, Matthew C., Jarvis, Chelsea, Cobon, David, Nguyen, Hanh, Hudson, Debra, Sharmila, S., Marshall, Andrew G., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Milton, Sean, Stirling, Alison, Alves, Oscar and Hendon, Harry H.. 2022. "The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (11), pp. E2492-E2505. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1