Dr Andrew Marshall


Dr Andrew Marshall
NameDr Andrew Marshall
Email Addressandrew.marshall@unisq.edu.au
Job TitleAssociate Professor (Climate and Agricultural Systems Modelling)
QualificationsBSc Monash, PhD Monash
DepartmentCentre for Applied Climate Sciences (Research)
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Biography

Andrew is a Senior Research Fellow at the University of Southern Queensland and leads the Northern Australia Climate Program. Drawing on 25 years of experience at the Bureau of Meteorology, he focuses on delivering research and extension outcomes that strengthen the agricultural industry’s ability to manage drought and climate risk across northern Australia.

His work centres on building awareness of the drivers of Australian weather and climate, and supporting producers to confidently use forecast information in their decision-making. Andrew is passionate about climate education and recently served as President of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS, 2018-2020).

Employment

PositionOrganisationFromTo
Senior Research FellowUniversity of Southern Queensland20232024
Principal Research ScientistBureau of Meteorology20232023
Senior Research ScientistBureau of Meteorology20162023
Research ScientistBureau of Meteorology20092016
Climate ScientistUK Met Office20072009
Postdoctoral Research FellowMonash University20052007

Expertise

Andrew's research explores drivers of global climate variability and extremes on multi-week to multi-year timescales.

Fields of Research

  • 370105. Atmospheric dynamics

Professional Membership

Professional MembershipYear
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
BSc
Monash
2001
PhD
Monash
2006

Supervision Interests

Drivers of global climate variability and extremes on multi-week to multi-year timescales

Current Supervisions

Research TitleSupervisor TypeLevel of StudyCommenced
Developing Advanced and User-Friendly Climate Information System Model for Sustainable Livestock ProductionAssociate SupervisorDoctoral2023

Completed Supervisions

Research TitleSupervisor TypeLevel of StudyCompleted
Stratospheric influence on tropospheric climate: a window to improve extremesAssociateDoctoral2025
Marine heatwave predictability in the Australian region on sub-seasonal/seasonal timescalesAssociateDoctoral2025
Extreme fire weather prediction in Australia on sub-seasonal/seasonal timescalesPrincipalDoctoral2024
Project titleDetailsYear
Northern Hub Climate Mate Roadshows project Climate extension service delivery as a series of formal and informal in-person learning sessions/roadshows. Four climate resilience workshops/roadshows, in the Gascoyne, Katherine / Sturt Plateau / Barkly, Pilbara / Kimberley, and Alice Springs regions.2025
DateNameAwarding organisationUnderpinning research
2022Bureau of Meteorology Excellence Award: Forewarned is Forearmed ProjectBureau of Meteorology
2021R&D Excellence, Aus. & ACT Water Awards: Northern Aus. Water Resource AssessmentAus. & ACT Water Awards
2019Top Downloaded Paper at Journal of Geophysical Research: AtmospheresJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
2017Lightning Lecture Prize at ARC CoE for Climate System Science Annual WorkshopARC CoE for Climate System Science
2016Outstanding Reviewer Award for Environmental Research LettersEnvironmental Research Letters
2008Exceeding Output Award for exceptional contributions to Hadley Centre researchUK Met Office
1997Golden Key Academic Excellence Award at Monash UniversityMonash University
2018AMOS PresidentAustralian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
2022JSHESS Board MemberJournal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science
2025Enhancing climate resilience through the NACP extension service12th International Rangeland Congress
2024Enhancing climate resilience with the Northern Australia Climate ProgramBeef 2024
2024Weather and Climate Forecasting: from Data Collection to Decision MakingNorthern Territory Cattlemen's Association (NTCA) Conference
2023BoM in the Bush – Linking Climate Science and Decision Making22nd Australian Rangeland Society (ARS) Conference
2021Subseasonal drivers of extreme fire weather in Australia during spring and summerBureau R&D Annual Workshop
2020Climate driver impacts on global ocean surface wave variability and extremes27th Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) annual conference
2019Climate driver impacts on global ocean surface wave variability and extremesAustralian Marine Sciences Association (AMSA) annual conference
2019S2S downward coupling - A Southern Hemisphere perspective27th International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) general assembly
2019Forewarned is forearmed Multi-week to seasonal prediction of extreme heatCentre of Excellence for Climate Extremes (CLEX) annual workshop
2014Initiation and amplification of the Ningaloo Niño21st Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (AMOS) annual conference
Item reviewedYear
Nature npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Journal of Climate
Geophysical Research Letters
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
Environmental Research Letters

Interannual ENSO diversity, transitions, and projected changes in observations and climate models

Freund, Mandy B, Brown, Josephine R, Marshall, Andrew G, Tozer, Carly R, Henley, Benjamin J, Risbey, James S, Ramesh, Nandini, Lieber, Ruby and Sharmila, S. 2024. "Interannual ENSO diversity, transitions, and projected changes in observations and climate models ." Environmental Research Letters. 19 (11). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad78db

Observed Associations between Fire Danger and Climate Modes and Their Representation in ACCESS-S2

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J., Paul, Paul and Harris, Sarah. 2024. "Observed Associations between Fire Danger and Climate Modes and Their Representation in ACCESS-S2 ." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 63 (11), pp. 1363-1383. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0181.1

ACCESS-S2 seasonal forecasts of rainfall and the SAM–rainfall relationship during the grain growing season in south-west Western Australia

Firth, Rebecca, Kala, Jatin, Hudson, Debra, Hawke, Kerryn and Marshall, Andrew. 2024. "ACCESS-S2 seasonal forecasts of rainfall and the SAM–rainfall relationship during the grain growing season in south-west Western Australia." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 74 (3). https://doi.org/10.1071/ES24004

Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef

Gregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Spillman, Claire M. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2024. "Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef." Geophysical Research Letters. 51 (13). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108810

Skilful multi-week predictions of tropical cyclone frequency in the Northern Hemisphere using ACCESS-S2

Camp, J., Paul, G., Marshall, A. G. and Wheeler, M. C.. 2024. "Skilful multi-week predictions of tropical cyclone frequency in the Northern Hemisphere using ACCESS-S2." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 150 (762), pp. 2848-2868. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4738

A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J. and Harris, Sarah. 2024. "A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia." Atmosphere. 15 (4). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040470

Correction: Taylor et al. A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 470

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J. and Harris, Sarah. 2024. "Correction: Taylor et al. A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 470 ." Atmosphere. 15 (7). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070801

Sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers of regional marine heatwaves around Australia

Gregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Marshall, Andrew G. and Spillman, Claire M.. 2024. "Sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers of regional marine heatwaves around Australia." Climate Dynamics. 62 (7), pp. 6599-6623. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07226-x

Observed climatology and variability of cattle heat stress in Australia

Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Cobon, David H., Gaughan, John B., Marshall, Andrew G., Sharples, Wendy, McCulloch, Jillian and Jarvis, Chelsea. 2024. "Observed climatology and variability of cattle heat stress in Australia." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 63 (5), pp. 645-663. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0082.1

Climate Driver Influences on Prediction of the Australian Fire Behaviour Index

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J. and Harris, Sarah. 2024. "Climate Driver Influences on Prediction of the Australian Fire Behaviour Index." Atmosphere. 15 (2). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15020203

Observing and forecasting the retreat of northern Australia’s rainy season

Cowan, Tim, Hinds, Emily, Marshall, Andrew G., Wheeler, Matthew C. and Burgh-Day, Catherine. 2024. "Observing and forecasting the retreat of northern Australia’s rainy season." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 74 (1). https://doi.org/10.1071/ES23022

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation influence on Australian summer rainfall

Jiang, Xiaoxuan, Holbrook, Neil J., Marshall, Andrew G. and Love, Peter T.. 2024. "Quasi-Biennial Oscillation influence on Australian summer rainfall." Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 7 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00552-7

Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G. Marsha, Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J., Harris, Sarah and Sauvage, Samuel. 2024. "Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger." International Journal of Wildland Fire. 33 (1). https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23060

Atmospheric water vapour transport in ACCESS-S2 and the potential for enhancing skill of subseasonal forecasts of precipitation

Reid, Kimberley J., Hudson, Debra, King, Andrew D., Lane, Todd P. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2024. "Atmospheric water vapour transport in ACCESS-S2 and the potential for enhancing skill of subseasonal forecasts of precipitation." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 150 (758), pp. 68-80. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4585

Multi‐week tropical cyclone prediction for the Southern Hemisphere in ACCESS‐S2: maintaining operational skill and continuity of service

Camp, J., Paul, G., Marshall, A. G., Greenslade, J. and Wheeler, M. C.. 2023. "Multi‐week tropical cyclone prediction for the Southern Hemisphere in ACCESS‐S2: maintaining operational skill and continuity of service." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 149, pp. 3401-3422. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4563

Beef Stew(ing) – what might the future look like for northern Australian beef in a warmer world?

Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C, Marshall, Andrew, Gaughan, John and Cobon, David. 2025. "Beef Stew(ing) – what might the future look like for northern Australian beef in a warmer world? " 30th Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Canberra, Australia 05 - 09 Feb 2024 Australia.

Development and verification of thermal stress forecasts for cattle in Australia's Rangelands

Cowan, T., Hinds, E., Marshall, AG, Wheeler, MC and Cobon, DH. 2025. "Development and verification of thermal stress forecasts for cattle in Australia's Rangelands." McDonald, S., Hacker, R., Pressland, T., Silcock, J., Reseigh, J. and Beutel, T. (ed.) 12th International Rangeland Congress. Adelaide, Australia 02 - 06 Jun 2025 Australia.

Can we forecast the retreat of northern Australia's rainy season?

Cowan, Tim, Hinds, Emily, Marshall, Andrew, Wheeler, Matthew and de Burgh-Day, Catherine. 2024. "Can we forecast the retreat of northern Australia's rainy season?" 30th Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Canberra, Australia 05 - 09 Feb 2024 Australia.

Madden-Julian Oscillation Impacts on Australian Temperatures and Extremes

Marshall, Andrew G., Wheeler, Mathew C. and Cowan, Tim. 2023. "Madden-Julian Oscillation Impacts on Australian Temperatures and Extremes." Journal of Climate. 36 (2), pp. 335-357. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0413.1

The Combined Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall

Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Mathew C. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2023. "The Combined Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall." Journal of Climate. 36 (2), pp. 313-334. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0357.1

The Combined Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall

Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C. and Marshall, Andrew. 2022. "The Combined Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall." 19th Annual Meeting of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society (AOGS 2022) Conference. Singapore 01 - 05 Aug 2022

The combined influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian rainfall and temperature

Cowan, T., Wheeler, M. and Marshall, A.. 2022. "The combined influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian rainfall and temperature." 29th Annual Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Adelaide, Australia 28 Nov - 01 Dec 2022

The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights

Lavender, Sally L., Cowan, Tim, Hawcroft, Matthew, Wheeler, Matthew C., Jarvis, Chelsea, Cobon, David, Nguyen, Hanh, Hudson, Debra, Sharmila, S., Marshall, Andrew G., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Milton, Sean, Stirling, Alison, Alves, Oscar and Hendon, Harry H.. 2022. "The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (11), pp. E2492-E2505. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1

Sweaty wait for northern monsoon as nervous fishers, farmers eye the skies

Marshall, A.. 2025. "Sweaty wait for northern monsoon as nervous fishers, farmers eye the skies." ABC News.

Enhancing climate resilience through the NACP extension service

Marshall, A., Hinds, E. and Cobon, D.. 2025. "Enhancing climate resilience through the NACP extension service." 12th International Rangeland Congress. Adelaide, Australia 02 - 06 Jun 2025

BoM clears the fog on climate reporting at AgForce update

Marshall, Andrew. 2024. "BoM clears the fog on climate reporting at AgForce update." Queensland Country Life.

Weather and Climate Forecasting: from Data Collection to Decision Making

Marshall, A., Maclean, A. and Hinds, E.. 2024. "Weather and Climate Forecasting: from Data Collection to Decision Making." 2024 Northern Territory Cattlemen's Association (NTCA) Conference. Alice Springs. Australia 20 - 23 Mar 2024

Enhancing climate resilience with the Northern Australia Climate Program

Marshall, A.. 2024. "Enhancing climate resilience with the Northern Australia Climate Program." Beef 2024. Rockhampton, Australia 05 - 11 May 2024

BoM in the Bush – Linking Climate Science and Decision Making

Marshall, A., Jarvis, C., Cowan, T., Wheeler, M., Hendon, H., Yeo, C. and Cobon, D.. 2023. "BoM in the Bush – Linking Climate Science and Decision Making." 22nd Biennial Australian Rangeland Society Conference. Broome, Australia 18 - 22 Sep 2023

Madden-Julian Oscillation teleconnections to Australian springtime temperature extremes and their prediction in ACCESS-S1

Marshall, Andrew G., Wang, Guomin, Hendon, Harry H. and Lin, Hai. 2023. "Madden-Julian Oscillation teleconnections to Australian springtime temperature extremes and their prediction in ACCESS-S1." Climate Dynamics. 61, pp. 431-447. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06586-6

Atmospheric Drivers of Tasman Sea Marine Heatwaves

Gregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Marshall, Andrew G. and Spillman, Claire M.. 2023. "Atmospheric Drivers of Tasman Sea Marine Heatwaves." Journal of Climate. 36, pp. 5197-5214. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0538.1

Subseasonal drivers of extreme fire weather in Australia and its prediction in ACCESS-S1 during spring and summer

Marshall, Andrew G., Gregory, Paul A., de Burgh-Day, Catherine O. and Griffiths, Morwenna. 2022. "Subseasonal drivers of extreme fire weather in Australia and its prediction in ACCESS-S1 during spring and summer." Climate Dynamics. 58 (1), pp. 523-553. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05920-8

ACCESS-S2: The upgraded Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system

Wedd, Robin, Alves, Oscar, de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Down, Christopher, Griffiths, Morwenna, Hendon, Harry H., Hudson, Debra, Li, Shuhua, Lim, Eun-Pa, Marshall, Andrew G., Shi, Li, Smith, Paul, Smith, Grant, Spillman, Claire M., Wang, Guomin, Wheeler, Matthew C., Yan, Hailin, Yin, Yonghong, Young, Griffith, ..., Zhou, Xiaobing. 2022. "ACCESS-S2: The upgraded Bureau of Meteorology multi-week to seasonal prediction system." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 72, pp. 218-242. https://doi.org/10.1071/ES22026

Subseasonal drivers of extreme fire weather in Australia during spring and summer

Marshall, A.. 2021. "Subseasonal drivers of extreme fire weather in Australia during spring and summer." 2021 Bureau of Meteorology Annual Research and Development Workshop. 08 - 11 Nov 2021

Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019

Lim, E., Hendon, H., Shi, L., de Burgh-Day, C., Hudson, D., King, A., Trewin, B., Griffiths, M. and Marshall, A.. 2021. "Tropical forcing of Australian extreme low minimum temperatures in September 2019." Climate Dynamics. 56 (11-12), p. 3625–3641. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05661-8

Central Pacific El Niño as a precursor to summer drought-breaking rainfall over southeastern Australia

Freund, Mandy B., Marshall, Andrew G., Wheeler, Matthew C. and Brown, Jaclyn N.. 2021. "Central Pacific El Niño as a precursor to summer drought-breaking rainfall over southeastern Australia." Geophysical Research Letters. 48 (7). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091131

Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Multiweek Prediction of Australian Rainfall Extremes using the ACCESS-S1 Prediction System

Marshall, Andrew G., Hendon, Harry H. and Hudson, Debra. 2021. "Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on Multiweek Prediction of Australian Rainfall Extremes using the ACCESS-S1 Prediction System." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 71, pp. 159-180. https://doi.org/10.1071/ES21001

Niño 4 West (Niño-4W) sea surface temperature variability

Feng, Ming, Zhang, Ying, Hendon, Harry H., McPhaden, Michael J. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2021. "Niño 4 West (Niño-4W) sea surface temperature variability." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 126 (9). https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017591

Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Niña

Lim, Eun-Pa, Hudson, Debra, Wheeler, Matthew C., Marshall, Andrew G., King, Andrew, Zhu, Hongyan, Hendon, Harry H., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Trewin, Blair, Griffiths, Morwenna, Ramchurn, Avijeet and Young, Griffith. 2021. "Why Australia was not wet during spring 2020 despite La Niña." Scientific Reports. 11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-97690-w

Climate driver impacts on global ocean surface wave variability and extremes

Marshall, A., Hendon, H., Hemer, M., McInnes, K. and Durrant, T.. 2020. "Climate driver impacts on global ocean surface wave variability and extremes." 27th Annual Conference of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. Fremantle, Australia 10 - 14 Feb 2020

Australian blocking impacts on ocean surface waves

Marshall, Andrew G, Hemer, Mark A. and McInnes, Kathleen L. M. 2020. "Australian blocking impacts on ocean surface waves." Climate Dynamics. 54 (3-4), pp. 1281-1294. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05058-8

Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of rainfall extremes in Australia

King, Andrew D., Hudson, Debra, Lim, Eun-Pa, Marshall, Andrew G., Hendon, Harry H., Lane, Todd P. and Alves, Oscar. 2020. "Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of rainfall extremes in Australia." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 146 (730), pp. 2228-2249. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3789

Influence of the Pacific-South American modes on the global spectral wind-wave climate

Echevarria, E. R., Hemer, M. A., Holbrook, N. J. and Marshall, A. G.. 2020. "Influence of the Pacific-South American modes on the global spectral wind-wave climate." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 125 (8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016354