Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef

Article

Gregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Spillman, Claire M. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2024. "Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef." Geophysical Research Letters. 51 (13). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108810
Article Title

Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef

ERA Journal ID1874
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsGregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Spillman, Claire M. and Marshall, Andrew G.
Journal TitleGeophysical Research Letters
Journal Citation51 (13)
Article Numbere2024GL108810
Number of Pages11
Year2024
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0094-8276
1944-8007
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108810
Web Address (URL)https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL108810
AbstractLocal meteorology over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can significantly influence ocean temperatures, which in turn impacts coral ecosystems. While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides insight into the expected synoptic states, it lacks details of anticipated sub-seasonal weather variability at local scales. This study explores the influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian tropical climate, both independently and in combination with ENSO, focusing on GBR impacts. We find that during El Niño periods, including the summer of 2009/10, faster propagating MJO patterns can disrupt background warm, dry conditions, and potentially provide cooling relief via increased cloud cover and stronger winds. In La Niña periods, such as the summer of 2021/22, the MJO tends to be prevented from passing the Maritime continent, forcing it to remain in a standing pattern in the Indian Ocean. This leads to decreased cloud cover and weaker winds over the GBR, generating warm ocean anomalies.
Keywordscoral bleaching
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370105. Atmospheric dynamics
Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Tasmania
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
University of Southern Queensland
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