Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef
Article
Gregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Spillman, Claire M. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2024. "Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef." Geophysical Research Letters. 51 (13). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108810
| Article Title | Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef |
|---|---|
| ERA Journal ID | 1874 |
| Article Category | Article |
| Authors | Gregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Spillman, Claire M. and Marshall, Andrew G. |
| Journal Title | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Journal Citation | 51 (13) |
| Article Number | e2024GL108810 |
| Number of Pages | 11 |
| Year | 2024 |
| Publisher | John Wiley & Sons |
| Place of Publication | United States |
| ISSN | 0094-8276 |
| 1944-8007 | |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108810 |
| Web Address (URL) | https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024GL108810 |
| Abstract | Local meteorology over the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) can significantly influence ocean temperatures, which in turn impacts coral ecosystems. While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides insight into the expected synoptic states, it lacks details of anticipated sub-seasonal weather variability at local scales. This study explores the influence of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) on Australian tropical climate, both independently and in combination with ENSO, focusing on GBR impacts. We find that during El Niño periods, including the summer of 2009/10, faster propagating MJO patterns can disrupt background warm, dry conditions, and potentially provide cooling relief via increased cloud cover and stronger winds. In La Niña periods, such as the summer of 2021/22, the MJO tends to be prevented from passing the Maritime continent, forcing it to remain in a standing pattern in the Indian Ocean. This leads to decreased cloud cover and weaker winds over the GBR, generating warm ocean anomalies. |
| Keywords | coral bleaching |
| Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
| ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370105. Atmospheric dynamics |
| Byline Affiliations | University of Tasmania |
| Australian Bureau of Meteorology | |
| University of Southern Queensland |
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