Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger

Article

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G. Marsha, Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J., Harris, Sarah and Sauvage, Samuel. 2024. "Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger." International Journal of Wildland Fire. 33 (1). https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23060
Article Title

Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger

ERA Journal ID5680
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsTaylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G. Marsha, Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J., Harris, Sarah and Sauvage, Samuel
Journal TitleInternational Journal of Wildland Fire
Journal Citation33 (1)
Article NumberWF23060
Number of Pages24
Year2024
PublisherCSIRO Publishing
Place of PublicationAustralia
ISSN1049-8001
1448-5516
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23060
Web Address (URL)https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF23060
Abstract

Aims
We investigate the associations between major Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger throughout the year.

Methods
We use a composite-based approach, relating the probability of top-decile observed potential fire intensity to the positive and negative modes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden–Julian Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, split-flow blocking and Subtropical Ridge Tasman Highs, both concurrently and at a variety of lag times.

Key results
The chance of extreme fire danger increases over broad regions of the continent in response to El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, the negative mode of the Southern Annular Mode, split-flow Blocking Index and Subtropical Ridge Tasman High, and Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 5, 6, 2 and 8 in Austral summer, autumn, winter and spring respectively. These relationships exist not only concurrently, but also when a climate event occurs up to 6 months ahead of the season of interest.

Conclusions
These findings highlight the importance of considering the influence of diverse climate drivers, at a range of temporal lag periods, in understanding and predicting extreme fire danger.

Implications
The results of this study may aid in the development of effective fire management strategies and decision-making processes to mitigate the impacts of fire events in Australia.

KeywordsAustralian Fire Danger Rating System
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370105. Atmospheric dynamics
Byline AffiliationsAustralian National University
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Country Fire Authority, Victoria, Australia
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