Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger

Article

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G. Marsha, Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J., Harris, Sarah and Sauvage, Samuel. 2024. "Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger." International Journal of Wildland Fire. 33 (1). https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23060

Article Title	Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger
ERA Journal ID	5680
Article Category	Article
Authors	Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G. Marsha, Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J., Harris, Sarah and Sauvage, Samuel
Journal Title	International Journal of Wildland Fire
Journal Citation	33 (1)
Article Number	WF23060
Number of Pages	24
Year	2024
Publisher	CSIRO Publishing
Place of Publication	Australia
ISSN	1049-8001
	1448-5516
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)	https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23060
Web Address (URL)	https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF23060
Abstract	Aims We investigate the associations between major Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger throughout the year. Methods We use a composite-based approach, relating the probability of top-decile observed potential fire intensity to the positive and negative modes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden–Julian Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, split-flow blocking and Subtropical Ridge Tasman Highs, both concurrently and at a variety of lag times. Key results The chance of extreme fire danger increases over broad regions of the continent in response to El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, the negative mode of the Southern Annular Mode, split-flow Blocking Index and Subtropical Ridge Tasman High, and Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 5, 6, 2 and 8 in Austral summer, autumn, winter and spring respectively. These relationships exist not only concurrently, but also when a climate event occurs up to 6 months ahead of the season of interest. Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of considering the influence of diverse climate drivers, at a range of temporal lag periods, in understanding and predicting extreme fire danger. Implications The results of this study may aid in the development of effective fire management strategies and decision-making processes to mitigate the impacts of fire events in Australia.
Keywords	Australian Fire Danger Rating System
Contains Sensitive Content	Does not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020	370105. Atmospheric dynamics
Byline Affiliations	Australian National University
	Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
	Australian Bureau of Meteorology
	Country Fire Authority, Victoria, Australia

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