Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger

Article

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G. Marsha, Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J., Harris, Sarah and Sauvage, Samuel. 2024. "Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger." International Journal of Wildland Fire. 33 (1). https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23060

Article Title	Associations between Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger
ERA Journal ID	5680
Article Category	Article
Authors	Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G. Marsha, Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J., Harris, Sarah and Sauvage, Samuel
Journal Title	International Journal of Wildland Fire
Journal Citation	33 (1)
Article Number	WF23060
Number of Pages	24
Year	2024
Publisher	CSIRO Publishing
Place of Publication	Australia
ISSN	1049-8001
	1448-5516
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)	https://doi.org/10.1071/WF23060
Web Address (URL)	https://www.publish.csiro.au/WF/WF23060
Abstract	Aims We investigate the associations between major Australian climate drivers and extreme weekly fire danger throughout the year. Methods We use a composite-based approach, relating the probability of top-decile observed potential fire intensity to the positive and negative modes of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole, Madden–Julian Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, split-flow blocking and Subtropical Ridge Tasman Highs, both concurrently and at a variety of lag times. Key results The chance of extreme fire danger increases over broad regions of the continent in response to El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, the negative mode of the Southern Annular Mode, split-flow Blocking Index and Subtropical Ridge Tasman High, and Madden–Julian Oscillation phases 5, 6, 2 and 8 in Austral summer, autumn, winter and spring respectively. These relationships exist not only concurrently, but also when a climate event occurs up to 6 months ahead of the season of interest. Conclusions These findings highlight the importance of considering the influence of diverse climate drivers, at a range of temporal lag periods, in understanding and predicting extreme fire danger. Implications The results of this study may aid in the development of effective fire management strategies and decision-making processes to mitigate the impacts of fire events in Australia.
Keywords	Australian Fire Danger Rating System
Contains Sensitive Content	Does not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020	370105. Atmospheric dynamics
Byline Affiliations	Australian National University
	Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
	Australian Bureau of Meteorology
	Country Fire Authority, Victoria, Australia

Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z868z/associations-between-australian-climate-drivers-and-extreme-weekly-fire-danger

Download files

Published Version

	WF23060.pdf
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
File access level: Anyone

21
total views
14
total downloads
4
views this month
1
downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

ACCESS-S2 seasonal forecasts of rainfall and the SAM–rainfall relationship during the grain growing season in south-west Western Australia

Firth, Rebecca, Kala, Jatin, Hudson, Debra, Hawke, Kerryn and Marshall, Andrew. 2024. "ACCESS-S2 seasonal forecasts of rainfall and the SAM–rainfall relationship during the grain growing season in south-west Western Australia." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 74 (3). https://doi.org/10.1071/ES24004

Correction: Taylor et al. A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 470

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J. and Harris, Sarah. 2024. "Correction: Taylor et al. A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 470 ." Atmosphere. 15 (7). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15070801

A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J. and Harris, Sarah. 2024. "A Statistical Forecasting Model for Extremes of the Fire Behaviour Index in Australia." Atmosphere. 15 (4). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040470

Sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers of regional marine heatwaves around Australia

Gregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Marshall, Andrew G. and Spillman, Claire M.. 2024. "Sub-seasonal to seasonal drivers of regional marine heatwaves around Australia." Climate Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07226-x

Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef

Gregory, Catherine H., Holbrook, Neil J., Spillman, Claire M. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2024. "Combined Role of the MJO and ENSO in Shaping Extreme Warming Patterns and Coral Bleaching Risk in the Great Barrier Reef." Geophysical Research Letters. 51 (13). https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108810

Observed climatology and variability of cattle heat stress in Australia

Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Matthew C., Cobon, David H., Gaughan, John B., Marshall, Andrew G., Sharples, Wendy, McCulloch, Jillian and Jarvis, Chelsea. 2024. "Observed climatology and variability of cattle heat stress in Australia." Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 63 (5), pp. 645-663. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0082.1

Climate Driver Influences on Prediction of the Australian Fire Behaviour Index

Taylor, Rachel, Marshall, Andrew G., Crimp, Steven, Cary, Geoffrey J. and Harris, Sarah. 2024. "Climate Driver Influences on Prediction of the Australian Fire Behaviour Index." Atmosphere. 15 (2). https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15020203

Quasi-Biennial Oscillation influence on Australian summer rainfall

Jiang, Xiaoxuan, Holbrook, Neil J., Marshall, Andrew G. and Love, Peter T.. 2024. "Quasi-Biennial Oscillation influence on Australian summer rainfall." Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 7 (1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00552-7

Observing and forecasting the retreat of northern Australia’s rainy season

Cowan, Tim, Hinds, Emily, Marshall, Andrew G., Wheeler, Matthew C. and Burgh-Day, Catherine. 2024. "Observing and forecasting the retreat of northern Australia’s rainy season." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science. 74 (1). https://doi.org/10.1071/ES23022

Atmospheric water vapour transport in ACCESS-S2 and the potential for enhancing skill of subseasonal forecasts of precipitation

Reid, Kimberley J., Hudson, Debra, King, Andrew D., Lane, Todd P. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2024. "Atmospheric water vapour transport in ACCESS-S2 and the potential for enhancing skill of subseasonal forecasts of precipitation." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. 150 (758), pp. 68-80. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4585

Madden-Julian Oscillation Impacts on Australian Temperatures and Extremes

Marshall, Andrew G., Wheeler, Mathew C. and Cowan, Tim. 2023. "Madden-Julian Oscillation Impacts on Australian Temperatures and Extremes." Journal of Climate. 36 (2), pp. 335-357. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0413.1

The Combined Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall

Cowan, Tim, Wheeler, Mathew C. and Marshall, Andrew G.. 2023. "The Combined Influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Australian Rainfall." Journal of Climate. 36 (2), pp. 313-334. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0357.1

The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights

Lavender, Sally L., Cowan, Tim, Hawcroft, Matthew, Wheeler, Matthew C., Jarvis, Chelsea, Cobon, David, Nguyen, Hanh, Hudson, Debra, Sharmila, S., Marshall, Andrew G., de Burgh-Day, Catherine, Milton, Sean, Stirling, Alison, Alves, Oscar and Hendon, Harry H.. 2022. "The Northern Australia Climate Program: Overview and Selected Highlights." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 103 (11), pp. E2492-E2505. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0309.1

Systemic adaptations to climate change in Western Australian mixed farm systems

Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andrew, Crimp, Steven and Bowran, David. 2015. "Systemic adaptations to climate change in Western Australian mixed farm systems." Weber, T., McPhee, M. J. and Anderssen, R. S. (ed.) 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015). Gold Coast, Australia 29 Nov - 04 Dec 2015 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .

Adapting the Australian grassland & livestock industry to climate change by systemic adaptation: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale

Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andfrew, Crimp, Steven and Howden, Mark. 2014. "Adapting the Australian grassland & livestock industry to climate change by systemic adaptation: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale." 3rd International Climate Change Adaptation Conference: Adaptation Futures. Fortaleza/Ceará, Brazil 12 - 16 May 2014

Adapting the Australian livestock and wheat farms to climate change: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale

Ghahramani, A., Moore, A., Crimp, S. and Howden, M.. 2014. "Adapting the Australian livestock and wheat farms to climate change: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale." Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security Conference, 2014. Madrid, Spain 19 - 20 May 2014 Canberra, Australia.

Climate change impact on Western Australian mixed farm systems

Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andrew D., Crimp, Steven J. and Bowran, David. 2015. "Climate change impact on Western Australian mixed farm systems." 5th International Symposium for Farming Systems Design. Montpellier, France 07 - 10 Sep 2015

Evaluating transformative adaptation options for Australian extensive farming – a cross-transect analyses of systemic adaptations - July 2016 supplementary report

Ghahramani, Afshin, Crimp, Steven, Moore, Andrew, Lau, Rex and Hopwood, Garry. 2016. Evaluating transformative adaptation options for Australian extensive farming – a cross-transect analyses of systemic adaptations - July 2016 supplementary report. Canberra, Australia. CSIRO Publishing.

The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale

Ghahramani, Afshin, Kokic, Philip N., Moore, Andrew D., Zheng, Bangyou, Chapman, Scott C., Howden, Mark S. and Crimp, Steven J.. 2015. "The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale." Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 211, pp. 112-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2015.05.011

Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues

McKeon, G. M., Stone, G. S., Syktus, J. I., Carter, J. O., Flood, N. R., Ahrens, D. G., Bruget, D. N., Chilcott, C. R., Cobon, D. H., Cowley, R. A., Crimp, S. J., Fraser, G. W., Howden, S. M., Johnston, P. W., Ryan, J. G., Stokes, C. J. and Day, K. A.. 2009. "Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08068