Systemic adaptations to climate change in Western Australian mixed farm systems

Presentation


Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andrew, Crimp, Steven and Bowran, David. 2015. "Systemic adaptations to climate change in Western Australian mixed farm systems." Weber, T., McPhee, M. J. and Anderssen, R. S. (ed.) 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015). Gold Coast, Australia 29 Nov - 04 Dec 2015 Canberra, Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Paper/Presentation Title

Systemic adaptations to climate change in Western Australian mixed farm systems

Presentation TypePresentation
AuthorsGhahramani, Afshin (Author), Moore, Andrew (Author), Crimp, Steven (Author) and Bowran, David (Author)
EditorsWeber, T., McPhee, M. J. and Anderssen, R. S.
Journal or Proceedings TitleProceedings of the 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015)
ERA Conference ID44996
Number of Pages1
Year2015
PublisherModelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand
Place of PublicationCanberra, Australia
ISBN9780987214348
Web Address (URL) of Paperhttps://www.researchgate.net/publication/285581582_Systemic_adaptations_to_climate_change_in_Western_Australian_mixed_farm_systems
Conference/Event21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015)
International Congress on Modelling and Simulation
Event Details
International Congress on Modelling and Simulation
MODSIM
Rank
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
C
Event Details
21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015)
Parent
International Congress on Modelling and Simulation
Delivery
In person
Event Date
29 Nov 2015 to end of 04 Dec 2015
Event Location
Gold Coast, Australia
Abstract

Australia’s primary industries have historically operated in a highly variable climate. This has
posed significant challenges to production, requiring sound and responsive risk management practices. Climate
change has, and will, introduce even greater challenges. This means that there is a clear need to continue to
assess the opportunities for farmers to improve how they respond to climate variability and changes. We built
representative mixed farm systems (using AusFarm) across climate gradients to investigate likely effect of
climate change and variability and systemic adaptations to explore system’s resilience, to enhance productivity
under climate variability, and change by 2030. We used AusFarm to build mixed farm systems. Model inputs
were derived by consulting with producers and models performance was validated against survey data.
For a climate gradient of 335-215 mm rainfall (Apr-Oct) in Western Australia, we evaluated long term average
effectiveness of changes in planting date, fertilizer application rate, crop and stubble grazing, and stocking
rates (SR) for 2002-2012 as baseline. To assess the impact of climate change, we used two high-emissions
CMIP3 scenarios (A1FI and A2) with high and medium sensitivity and six global climate models projected
climate for 2030. In 2030 and in a relatively medium rainfall region (MR) of the climate gradient, wheat,
barley, canola production changed by +6%, +2%, and -2% on average while meat and wool production
increased by 1% and 2%. In 2030, and in lower rainfall (LR) end of gradient, wheat, barley, canola, and lupine
production changed by -8%, -2%, -11% and -16% while meat and wool production changed by -2% and -4%.
In 2030, GHG emissions changed by -10% for LR and -5% for MR under current management.
In addition to systemic combination of options described above, we evaluated a range of climate adaptation
packages, which were determined in collaboration with stakeholders. These adaptation packages designed
specifically for each region to reduce negative impact and risk of climate change and benefit from likely
opportunities. Alteration of the crop-livestock balance is an adaptation that can compensate negative impact of
climate change by reduction in business risk. These were evaluated through a package with elements of
optimizing area proportions of cropping and pasture either by changing the relative areas of existing crop &
pasture sequences or the relative length of crop & pasture phases, optimizing stocking rate, and adjustments in
livestock joining and sale dates. We designed low-variability to high-intensity mixed farming as adaptation
packages optimised for different risk and return management approaches. Overall, financially optimal systemic
adaptations were projected to offset negative impact of climate change on production and profitability of whole
farm system in 2030 at majority of sites. This would require for practice and land use change to cope with
changes in climate.

Keywordsmodelling, complex agro-ecosystems, Western Australia, APSIM, GRAZPLAN
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300399. Animal production not elsewhere classified
300205. Agricultural production systems simulation
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
Public Notes

File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author.

Byline AffiliationsInstitute for Agriculture and the Environment
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity, and on sustainable levels of profitability
Moore, Andrew and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2013. "Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity, and on sustainable levels of profitability." Global Change Biology. 19 (5), pp. 1440-1455. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12150
Water flux and sediment transport within a forested landscape: the role of connectivity, subsurface flow, and slope length scale on transport mechanism
Ghahramani, Afshin and Ishikawa, Yoshiharu. 2013. "Water flux and sediment transport within a forested landscape: the role of connectivity, subsurface flow, and slope length scale on transport mechanism." Hydrological Processes. 27 (26), pp. 4091-4102. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9791
Sheep greenhouse gas emission intensities under different management practices, climate zones and enterprise types
Cottle, D. J., Harrison, M. T. and Ghahramani, A.. 2016. "Sheep greenhouse gas emission intensities under different management practices, climate zones and enterprise types." Animal Production Science. 56 (3), pp. 507-518. https://doi.org/10.1071/AN15327
Climate change impact and adaptation in temperate grassland and livestock industries
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2015. "Climate change impact and adaptation in temperate grassland and livestock industries." 23rd International Grassland Congress: sustainable use of grassland resources for forage production, biodiversity and environmental protection (IGC 2015). New Delhi, India 20 - 24 Nov 2015 Jhansi, India.
Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 2. Adaptation options via grassland management
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2013. "Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 2. Adaptation options via grassland management." Crop and Pasture Science. 64 (6), pp. 615-630. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP13195
Systemic adaptations to climate change in southern Australian grasslands and livestock: production, profitability, methane emission and ecosystem function
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2015. "Systemic adaptations to climate change in southern Australian grasslands and livestock: production, profitability, methane emission and ecosystem function." Agricultural Systems. 133, pp. 158-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2014.11.003
The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale
Ghahramani, Afshin, Kokic, Philip N., Moore, Andrew D., Zheng, Bangyou, Chapman, Scott C., Howden, Mark S. and Crimp, Steven J.. 2015. "The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale." Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 211, pp. 112-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2015.05.011
Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2016. "Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems." Agricultural Systems. 146, pp. 142-155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.05.011
Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues
McKeon, G. M., Stone, G. S., Syktus, J. I., Carter, J. O., Flood, N. R., Ahrens, D. G., Bruget, D. N., Chilcott, C. R., Cobon, D. H., Cowley, R. A., Crimp, S. J., Fraser, G. W., Howden, S. M., Johnston, P. W., Ryan, J. G., Stokes, C. J. and Day, K. A.. 2009. "Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08068