The chaos in calibrating crop models: lessons learned from a multi-model calibration exercise

Article

Wallach, Daniel, Palosuo, Taru, Thorburn, Peter, Hochman, Zvi, Gourdain, Emmanuelle, Andrianasolo, Fety, Asseng, Senthold, Basso, Bruno, Buis, Samuel, Crout, Neil, Dibari, Camilla, Dumont, Benjamin, Ferrise, Roberto, Gaiser, Thomas, Garcia, Cecile, Gayler, Sebastian, Ghahramani, Afshin, Hiremath, Santosh, Hoek, Steven, ..., Seidel, Sabine J.. 2021. "The chaos in calibrating crop models: lessons learned from a multi-model calibration exercise." Environmental Modelling and Software. 145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105206
Article Title

The chaos in calibrating crop models: lessons learned from a multi-model calibration exercise

ERA Journal ID4673
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsWallach, Daniel (Author), Palosuo, Taru (Author), Thorburn, Peter (Author), Hochman, Zvi (Author), Gourdain, Emmanuelle (Author), Andrianasolo, Fety (Author), Asseng, Senthold (Author), Basso, Bruno (Author), Buis, Samuel (Author), Crout, Neil (Author), Dibari, Camilla (Author), Dumont, Benjamin (Author), Ferrise, Roberto (Author), Gaiser, Thomas (Author), Garcia, Cecile (Author), Gayler, Sebastian (Author), Ghahramani, Afshin (Author), Hiremath, Santosh (Author), Hoek, Steven (Author), Horan, Heidi (Author), Hoogenboom, Gerrit (Author), Huang, Mingxia (Author), Jabloun, Mohamed (Author), Jansson, Per-Erik (Author), Jing, Qi (Author), Justes, Eric (Author), Kersebaum, Kurt Christian (Author), Klosterhalfen, Anne (Author), Launay, Marie (Author), Lewan, Elisabet (Author), Luo, Qunying (Author), Maestrini, Bernardo (Author), Mielenz, Henrike (Author), Moriondo, Marco (Author), Zadeh, Hasti Nariman (Author), Padovan, Gloria (Author), Olesen, Jorgen Eivind (Author), Poyda, Arne (Author), Priesack, Eckart (Author), Pullens, Johannes Wilhelmus Maria (Author), Qian, Budong (Author), Schutze, Niels (Author), Shelia, Vakhtang (Author), Souissi, Amir (Author), Specka, Xenia (Author), Srivastava, Amit Kumar (Author), Stella, Tommaso (Author), Streck, Thilo (Author), Trombi, Giacomo (Author), Wallor, Evelyn (Author), Wang, Jing (Author), Weber, Tobias K. D. (Author), Weihermuller, Lutz (Author), de Wit, Allard (Author), Wohling, Thomas (Author), Xiao, Liujun (Author), Zhao, Chuang (Author), Zhu, Yan (Author) and Seidel, Sabine J. (Author)
Journal TitleEnvironmental Modelling and Software
Journal Citation145
Number of Pages105206
Year2021
PublisherElsevier
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN1364-8152
1873-6726
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105206
Web Address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364815221002486
Abstract

Calibration, the estimation of model parameters based on fitting the model to experimental data, is among the first steps in many applications of process-based models and has an important impact on simulated values. We propose a novel method of developing guidelines for calibration of process-based models, based on development of recommendations for calibration of the phenology component of crop models. The approach was based on a multi-model study, where all teams were provided with the same data and asked to return simulations for the same conditions. All teams were asked to document in detail their calibration approach, including choices with respect to criteria for best parameters, choice of parameters to estimate and software. Based on an analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the various choices, we propose calibration recommendations that cover a comprehensive list of decisions and that are based on actual practices.

Keywordscalibration recommendations; process-based models; parameter estimation; phenology
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
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Byline AffiliationsNational Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE), France
Natural Resources Institute, Finland
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Institute for Arable Crops, France
Technical University of Munich, Germany
Michigan State University, United States
University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
University of Florence, Italy
University of Liege, Belgium
University of Bonn, Germany
University of Hohenheim, Germany
Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems
Aalto University, Finland
Wageningen University, Netherlands
University of Florida, United States
China Agricultural University, China
KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
Agriculture and Agri-Food, Canada
French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), France
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Germany
Forschungszentrum Julich, Germany
Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Sweden
Hillridge Technology, Australia
Julius Kuhn Institute, Germany
Institute of BioEconomy, Italy
Aarhus University, Denmark
Christian-Albrecht University of Kiel, Germany
Helmholtz Munich, Germany
Dresden University of Technology, Germany
University of Carthage, Tunisia
Nanjing Agricultural University, China
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andfrew, Crimp, Steven and Howden, Mark. 2014. "Adapting the Australian grassland & livestock industry to climate change by systemic adaptation: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale." 3rd International Climate Change Adaptation Conference: Adaptation Futures. Fortaleza/Ceará, Brazil 12 - 16 May 2014
Adapting the Australian livestock and wheat farms to climate change: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale
Ghahramani, A., Moore, A., Crimp, S. and Howden, M.. 2014. "Adapting the Australian livestock and wheat farms to climate change: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale." Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security Conference, 2014. Madrid, Spain 19 - 20 May 2014 Canberra, Australia.
Increasing soil fertility and altering legume-grass balance as adaptation strategies for sustainable livestock production under climate change
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew d.. 2012. "Increasing soil fertility and altering legume-grass balance as adaptation strategies for sustainable livestock production under climate change." 16th Australian Agronomy Conference: Capturing Opportunities and Overcoming Obstacles in Australian Agronomy (ASA 2012). Armidale, Australia 14 - 18 Oct 2012 Australia.
Climate change impact on Western Australian mixed farm systems
Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andrew D., Crimp, Steven J. and Bowran, David. 2015. "Climate change impact on Western Australian mixed farm systems." 5th International Symposium for Farming Systems Design. Montpellier, France 07 - 10 Sep 2015
Estimated effects of climate change on grassland production and legume content across southern Australia
Moore, Andrew D. and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2013. "Estimated effects of climate change on grassland production and legume content across southern Australia." Michalk, David L., Millar, Geoffrey D., Badgery, Warwick B. and Broadfoot, Warwick B. (ed.) 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Orange, Australia.
Slope length effect on sediment and organic litter transport on a steep forested hillslope: upscaling from plot to hillslope scale
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu and Gomi, Takashi. 2011. "Slope length effect on sediment and organic litter transport on a steep forested hillslope: upscaling from plot to hillslope scale." Hydrological Research Letters. 5, pp. 16-20. https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.5.16
Field experiments constraining the probability distribution of particle travel distances during natural rainstorms on different slope gradients
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu and Mudd, Simon M.. 2012. "Field experiments constraining the probability distribution of particle travel distances during natural rainstorms on different slope gradients." Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. 37 (5), pp. 473-485. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.2253
Impact of extreme climatic events on wheat productivity in South-West, Western Australia
Peck, Matthew and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2016. "Impact of extreme climatic events on wheat productivity in South-West, Western Australia." Climate Adaptation 2016: Change, Challenge, Opportunity. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 07 Jul 2016 Adelaide, Australia.
Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 3. Adaptation options via livestock genetic improvement
Moore, Andrew D. and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2014. "Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 3. Adaptation options via livestock genetic improvement." Animal Production Science. 54 (2), pp. 111-124. https://doi.org/10.1071/AN13052
Evaluating transformative adaptation options for Australian extensive farming – a cross-transect analyses of systemic adaptations - July 2016 supplementary report
Ghahramani, Afshin, Crimp, Steven, Moore, Andrew, Lau, Rex and Hopwood, Garry. 2016. Evaluating transformative adaptation options for Australian extensive farming – a cross-transect analyses of systemic adaptations - July 2016 supplementary report. Canberra, Australia. CSIRO Publishing.
Effect of ground cover on splash and sheetwash erosion over a steep forested hillslope: a plot-scale study
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu, Gomi, Takashi, Shiraki, Katsushige and Miyata, Shusuke. 2011. "Effect of ground cover on splash and sheetwash erosion over a steep forested hillslope: a plot-scale study." Catena. 85 (1), pp. 34-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2010.11.005
Downslope soil detachment–transport on steep slopes via rain splash
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu, Gomi, Takashi and Miyata, Shusuke. 2011. "Downslope soil detachment–transport on steep slopes via rain splash." Hydrological Processes. 25 (15), pp. 2471-2480. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8086
Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity, and on sustainable levels of profitability
Moore, Andrew and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2013. "Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity, and on sustainable levels of profitability." Global Change Biology. 19 (5), pp. 1440-1455. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12150
Water flux and sediment transport within a forested landscape: the role of connectivity, subsurface flow, and slope length scale on transport mechanism
Ghahramani, Afshin and Ishikawa, Yoshiharu. 2013. "Water flux and sediment transport within a forested landscape: the role of connectivity, subsurface flow, and slope length scale on transport mechanism." Hydrological Processes. 27 (26), pp. 4091-4102. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9791
Sheep greenhouse gas emission intensities under different management practices, climate zones and enterprise types
Cottle, D. J., Harrison, M. T. and Ghahramani, A.. 2016. "Sheep greenhouse gas emission intensities under different management practices, climate zones and enterprise types." Animal Production Science. 56 (3), pp. 507-518. https://doi.org/10.1071/AN15327
Climate change impact and adaptation in temperate grassland and livestock industries
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2015. "Climate change impact and adaptation in temperate grassland and livestock industries." 23rd International Grassland Congress: sustainable use of grassland resources for forage production, biodiversity and environmental protection (IGC 2015). New Delhi, India 20 - 24 Nov 2015 Jhansi, India.
Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 2. Adaptation options via grassland management
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2013. "Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 2. Adaptation options via grassland management." Crop and Pasture Science. 64 (6), pp. 615-630. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP13195
Systemic adaptations to climate change in southern Australian grasslands and livestock: production, profitability, methane emission and ecosystem function
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2015. "Systemic adaptations to climate change in southern Australian grasslands and livestock: production, profitability, methane emission and ecosystem function." Agricultural Systems. 133, pp. 158-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2014.11.003
The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale
Ghahramani, Afshin, Kokic, Philip N., Moore, Andrew D., Zheng, Bangyou, Chapman, Scott C., Howden, Mark S. and Crimp, Steven J.. 2015. "The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale." Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 211, pp. 112-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2015.05.011
Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2016. "Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems." Agricultural Systems. 146, pp. 142-155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.05.011
Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape
Chipanshi, Aston, Zhang, Yinsuo, Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Davidson, Andrew, Hill, Harvey, Warren, Richard, Qian, Budong, Daneshfar, Bahram, Bedard, Frederic and Reichert, Gordon. 2015. "Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 206, pp. 137-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.03.007
Enhancing secrecy capacity of multi-relay wiretap systems with partial channel state information
Long, Hang, Xiang, Wei, Wang, Jing, Zhang, Xiaoli and Wang, Wenbo. 2015. "Enhancing secrecy capacity of multi-relay wiretap systems with partial channel state information." International Journal of Communication Systems. 28 (12), pp. 1847-1861. https://doi.org/10.1002/dac.2802
Development and application of process-based simulation models for cotton production: a review of past, present, and future directions
Thorp, K. R., Ale, S., Bange, M. P., Barnes, E. M., Hoogenboom, G., Lascano, R. J., McCarthy, A. C., Nair, S., Paz, J. O., Rajan, N., Reddy, K. R., Wall, G. W. and White, J. W.. 2014. "Development and application of process-based simulation models for cotton production: a review of past, present, and future directions." Journal of Cotton Science. 18 (1), pp. 10-47.
Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system
Djaby, Bakary, de Wit, Allard, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2013. "Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system." Sustainable Agriculture Research. 2 (4), pp. 12-29. https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n4p12
Impacts of land use/land cover change on climate and future research priorities
Mahmood, Rezaul, Pielke, Roger A., Hubbard, Kenneth G., Niyogi, Dev, Bonan, Gordon, Lawrence, Peter, McNider, Richard, McAlpine, Clive, Etter, Andres, Gameda, Samuel, Qian, Budong, Carleton, Andrew, Beltran-Przekurat, Adriana, Chase, Thomas, Quintanar, Arturo I., Adegoke, Jimmy O., Vezhapparambu, Sajith, Conner, Glen, Asefi, Salvi, ..., Syktus, Jozef. 2010. "Impacts of land use/land cover change on climate and future research priorities." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 91 (1), pp. 37-46. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2769.1