Contribution of climate models and APSIM phenological parameters to uncertainties in spring wheat simulations: application of SUFI-2 algorithm in northeast Australia
Article
Article Title | Contribution of climate models and APSIM phenological parameters to uncertainties in spring wheat simulations: application of SUFI-2 algorithm in northeast Australia |
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ERA Journal ID | 5314 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Collins, Brian, Najeeb, Ullah, Luo, Qunying and Tan, Daniel K. Y. |
Journal Title | Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science |
Journal Citation | 208 (2), pp. 225-242 |
Number of Pages | 18 |
Year | 2022 |
Publisher | John Wiley & Sons |
Place of Publication | Germany |
ISSN | 0931-2250 |
1439-037X | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12575 |
Web Address (URL) | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jac.12575 |
Abstract | We used SUFI-2 for the first time to calibrate the phenology module of the APSIM-wheat model for 10 spring wheat cultivars cultivated in northeast Australia (south-eastern Queensland). Calibration resulted in an average root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.5 days for developmental stages from stem elongation up to flowering. Projections from 33 climate models under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 were used for simulations at 17 sites. Using adapted sowing times, we simulated significantly shorter crop cycles and grain yield improvements for the period 2036–2065 relative to 1990–2019 for three selected cultivars (Hartog, Scout and Gregory). Photoperiod and vernalisation sensitivities were shown to be the largest and smallest contributors to total uncertainties in the simulated flowering day and grain yield, respectively. Uncertainties in climate models had a relatively minor contribution to the total uncertainties in the simulated values of target traits. This contribution significantly increased when climate change impact on the target traits was quantified. |
Keywords | climate change; uncertainty analys; Australian wheatbelt; calibration; sensitivity analysis; crop model |
Article Publishing Charge (APC) Funding | Other |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 310806. Plant physiology |
460207. Modelling and simulation | |
Public Notes | The accessible file is the accepted version of the paper. Please refer to the URL for the published version. |
Byline Affiliations | James Cook University |
University of Queensland | |
Hillridge Technology, Australia | |
University of Sydney |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z558x/contribution-of-climate-models-and-apsim-phenological-parameters-to-uncertainties-in-spring-wheat-simulations-application-of-sufi-2-algorithm-in-northeast-australia
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