Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe

Article

Webber, Heidi, Ewert, Frank, Olesen, Jørgen E., Müller, Christoph, Fronzek, Stefan, Ruane, Alex C., Bourgault, Maryse, Martre, Pierre, Ababaei, Behnam, Bindi, Marco, Ferrise, Roberto, Finger, Robert, Fodor, Nándor Fodor, Gabaldón-Leal, Clara, Gaiser, Thomas, Jabloun, Mohamed, Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian, Lizaso, Jon I., Lorite, Ignacio J., ..., Wallach, Daniel. 2018. "Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe." Nature Communications. 9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2
Article Title

Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe

ERA Journal ID122966
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsWebber, Heidi, Ewert, Frank, Olesen, Jørgen E., Müller, Christoph, Fronzek, Stefan, Ruane, Alex C., Bourgault, Maryse, Martre, Pierre, Ababaei, Behnam, Bindi, Marco, Ferrise, Roberto, Finger, Robert, Fodor, Nándor Fodor, Gabaldón-Leal, Clara, Gaiser, Thomas, Jabloun, Mohamed, Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian, Lizaso, Jon I., Lorite, Ignacio J., Manceau, Loic, Moriondo, Marco, Nendel, Claas, Rodríguez, Alfredo, Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita, Semenov, Mikhail A., Siebert, Stefan, Stella, Tommaso, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Trombi, Giacomo and Wallach, Daniel
Journal TitleNature Communications
Journal Citation9
Article Number4249
Number of Pages10
Year2018
PublisherNature Publishing Group
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN2041-1723
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2
Web Address (URL)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06525-2
Abstract

Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.

Keywordsdrought ; climate change
Article Publishing Charge (APC) FundingProject Funding
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 20204101. Climate change impacts and adaptation
460207. Modelling and simulation
Byline AffiliationsLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Germany
University of Bonn, Germany
Aarhus University, Denmark
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
Finnish Environment Institute, Finland
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, United States
University of Montana, United States
University of Montpellier, France
Native Trait Research, France
University of Queensland
University of Florence, Italy
ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Hungary
IFAPA-Centro Alameda del Obispo, Spain
University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
Polytechnic University of Madrid, Spain
CNR-IBIMET, Italy
University of Castile-La Mancha, Spain
Rothamsted Research, United Kingdom
University of Gottingen, Germany
National Institute of Agricultural Research, France
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