Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe

Article

Webber, Heidi, Ewert, Frank, Olesen, Jørgen E., Müller, Christoph, Fronzek, Stefan, Ruane, Alex C., Bourgault, Maryse, Martre, Pierre, Ababaei, Behnam, Bindi, Marco, Ferrise, Roberto, Finger, Robert, Fodor, Nándor Fodor, Gabaldón-Leal, Clara, Gaiser, Thomas, Jabloun, Mohamed, Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian, Lizaso, Jon I., Lorite, Ignacio J., ..., Wallach, Daniel. 2018. "Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe." Nature Communications. 9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2
Article Title

Diverging importance of drought stress for maize and winter wheat in Europe

ERA Journal ID122966
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsWebber, Heidi, Ewert, Frank, Olesen, Jørgen E., Müller, Christoph, Fronzek, Stefan, Ruane, Alex C., Bourgault, Maryse, Martre, Pierre, Ababaei, Behnam, Bindi, Marco, Ferrise, Roberto, Finger, Robert, Fodor, Nándor Fodor, Gabaldón-Leal, Clara, Gaiser, Thomas, Jabloun, Mohamed, Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian, Lizaso, Jon I., Lorite, Ignacio J., Manceau, Loic, Moriondo, Marco, Nendel, Claas, Rodríguez, Alfredo, Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita, Semenov, Mikhail A., Siebert, Stefan, Stella, Tommaso, Stratonovitch, Pierre, Trombi, Giacomo and Wallach, Daniel
Journal TitleNature Communications
Journal Citation9
Article Number4249
Number of Pages10
Year2018
PublisherNature Publishing Group
Place of PublicationUnited Kingdom
ISSN2041-1723
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06525-2
Web Address (URL)https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06525-2
Abstract

Understanding the drivers of yield levels under climate change is required to support adaptation planning and respond to changing production risks. This study uses an ensemble of crop models applied on a spatial grid to quantify the contributions of various climatic drivers to past yield variability in grain maize and winter wheat of European cropping systems (1984–2009) and drivers of climate change impacts to 2050. Results reveal that for the current genotypes and mix of irrigated and rainfed production, climate change would lead to yield losses for grain maize and gains for winter wheat. Across Europe, on average heat stress does not increase for either crop in rainfed systems, while drought stress intensifies for maize only. In low-yielding years, drought stress persists as the main driver of losses for both crops, with elevated CO2 offering no yield benefit in these years.

Keywordsdrought ; climate change
Article Publishing Charge (APC) FundingProject Funding
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 20204101. Climate change impacts and adaptation
460207. Modelling and simulation
Byline AffiliationsLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Germany
University of Bonn, Germany
Aarhus University, Denmark
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany
Finnish Environment Institute, Finland
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, United States
University of Montana, United States
University of Montpellier, France
Native Trait Research, France
University of Queensland
University of Florence, Italy
ETH Zurich, Switzerland
Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Hungary
IFAPA-Centro Alameda del Obispo, Spain
University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
Polytechnic University of Madrid, Spain
CNR-IBIMET, Italy
University of Castile-La Mancha, Spain
Rothamsted Research, United Kingdom
University of Gottingen, Germany
National Institute of Agricultural Research, France
Permalink -

https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z78z1/diverging-importance-of-drought-stress-for-maize-and-winter-wheat-in-europe

Log in to edit

Download files

Published Version
s41467-018-06525-2.pdf
License: CC BY 4.0
File access level: Anyone

  • 34
    total views
  • 13
    total downloads
  • 3
    views this month
  • 0
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Evaluating the impact of weather forecasts on productivity and environmental footprint of irrigated maize production systems
Collins, Brian, Lai, Yunru, Grewer, Uwe G, Attard, Steve, Sexton, Justin and Pembleton, Keith G.. 2024. "Evaluating the impact of weather forecasts on productivity and environmental footprint of irrigated maize production systems." Science of the Total Environment. 954. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176368
Enhancing efficiency and profitability: the impact of smart irrigation scheduling in sugarcane production systems
Wang, Eric, Collins, Brian, Attard, Steve and Everingham, Yvette. 2024. "Enhancing efficiency and profitability: the impact of smart irrigation scheduling in sugarcane production systems." 45th Annual Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists (ASSCT 2024). Townsville, Australia 15 - 19 Apr 2024 Australia. Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists.
Pre- and post-flowering impacts of natural heatwaves on yield components in wheat
Ullah, Najeeb, Collins, Brian, Christopher, John T., Frederiks, Troy and Chenu, Karine. 2024. "Pre- and post-flowering impacts of natural heatwaves on yield components in wheat." Field Crops Research. 316. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2024.109489
Water scarcity assessment in Iran’s agricultural sector using the water footprint concept
Dehghanpir, Shahla, Bazrafshan, Ommolbanin, Ramezani-Etedali, Hadi and Collins, Brian. 2024. "Water scarcity assessment in Iran’s agricultural sector using the water footprint concept." Environment, Development and Sustainability: a multidisciplinary approach to the theory and practice of sustainable development. 26 (11), pp. 28995-29020. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-023-03852-3
Evaluation of meteorological datasets in estimating the water footprint components of wheat and maize (case study: Qazvin, Iran)
Ramezani-Etedali, Hadi, Gorginpaveh, Faraz, Kakvand, Parisa, Elbeltagi, Ahmed and Collins, Brian. 2024. "Evaluation of meteorological datasets in estimating the water footprint components of wheat and maize (case study: Qazvin, Iran)." AIMS Agriculture and Food. 9 (1), pp. 84-107. https://doi.org/10.3934/agrfood.2024006
Application of inclusive multiple model for the prediction of saffron water footprint
Moshizi, Zahra Gerkani Nezhad, Bazrafshan, Ommolbanin, Ramezani Etedali, Hadi, Esmaeilpour, Yahya and Collins, Brian. 2023. "Application of inclusive multiple model for the prediction of saffron water footprint." Agricultural Water Management. 277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.108125
Balancing pre- and post-anthesis growth to maximize water-limited yield in cereals
Borrell, Andrew K., Christopher, John T., Kelly, Alison, Collins, Brian and Chenu, Karine. 2023. "Balancing pre- and post-anthesis growth to maximize water-limited yield in cereals." Field Crops Research. 296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2023.108919
An optimal combination of sowing date and cultivar could mitigate the impact of simultaneous heat and drought on rainfed wheat in arid regions
Deihimfard, Reza, Rahimi-Moghaddam, Sajjad, El-Serehy, Hamed and Collins, Brian. 2023. "An optimal combination of sowing date and cultivar could mitigate the impact of simultaneous heat and drought on rainfed wheat in arid regions." European Journal of Agronomy. 147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2023.126848
Superior leaf physiological performance contributes to sustaining the final yield of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) genotypes under terminal heat stress
Sarwar, Muhammad, Saleem, Muhammad Farrukh, Ullah, Najeeb, Ali, Asjad, Collins, Brian, Shahid, Muhammad, Munir, Muhammad Kashif, Chung, Sang-Min and Kumar, Manu. 2023. "Superior leaf physiological performance contributes to sustaining the final yield of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) genotypes under terminal heat stress." Physiology and Molecular Biology of Plants. 29 (5), pp. 739-753. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12298-023-01322-8
Evaluation of water shortage in wheat production in Iran
Dehghanpir, Shahla, Bazrafshan, Ommolbanin, Ramezani-Etedali, Hadi, Holisaz, Arashk and Collins, Brian. 2023. "Evaluation of water shortage in wheat production in Iran." Iranian Journal of Ecohydrology. 9 (4), pp. 719-732.
A discussion support system to rapidly assess economic and environmental impacts of different sugarcane irrigation practices
Collins, Brian, Attard, Steve, Banhalmi-Zakar, Zsuzsa and Everingham, Yvette. 2023. "A discussion support system to rapidly assess economic and environmental impacts of different sugarcane irrigation practices." Computers and Electronics in Agriculture. 215. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2023.108380
Frequency of compound hot–dry weather extremes has significantly increased in Australia since 1889
Collins, Brian. 2022. "Frequency of compound hot–dry weather extremes has significantly increased in Australia since 1889 ." Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science. 208 (6), pp. 941-955. https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12545
Future climate change could reduce irrigated and rainfed wheat water footprint in arid environment
Deihimfard, Reza, Rahimi-Moghaddam, Sajjad, Collins, Brian and Azizi, Khosro. 2022. "Future climate change could reduce irrigated and rainfed wheat water footprint in arid environment." Science of the Total Environment. 807 (3). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150991
Contribution of climate models and APSIM phenological parameters to uncertainties in spring wheat simulations: application of SUFI-2 algorithm in northeast Australia
Collins, Brian, Najeeb, Ullah, Luo, Qunying and Tan, Daniel K. Y.. 2022. "Contribution of climate models and APSIM phenological parameters to uncertainties in spring wheat simulations: application of SUFI-2 algorithm in northeast Australia." Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science. 208 (2), pp. 225-242. https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12575
Analysis on heat characteristics for summer maize cropping in a semi-arid region
Wang, Zhiwei, Sun, Weiwei, Liu, Xiaoli, Li, Yangyang, Collins, Brian, Ullah, Najeeb and Song, Youhong. 2022. "Analysis on heat characteristics for summer maize cropping in a semi-arid region." Agronomy. 12 (6). https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy12061435
A cross-scale analysis to understand and quantify effects of photosynthetic enhancement on crop growth and yield across environments
Wu, Alex, Brider, Jason, Busch, Florian A., Chen, Min, Chenu, Karine, Clarke, Victoria C., Collins, Brian, Ermakova, Maria, Evans, John R., Farquhar, Graham D., Forster, Britta, Furbank, Robert T., Groszmann, Michael, Hernandez‐Prieto, Miguel A., Long, Benedict M., McLean, Greg, Potgieter, Andries, Price, G. Dean, Sharwood, Robert E., ..., Hammer, Graeme L.. 2022. "A cross-scale analysis to understand and quantify effects of photosynthetic enhancement on crop growth and yield across environments." Plant, Cell and Environment. 46 (1), pp. 23-44. https://doi.org/10.1111/pce.14453
The Effect of Past Climate Change on the Water Footprint Trend in Saffron at Homogeneous Agroclimatic Regions of Khorasan
Moshizi, zahra Gerkani Nezhad, Bazrafshan, ommolbanin, Ramezani-Etedali, Hadi, Esmaeilpour, yahya and Collins, Brian. 2022. "The Effect of Past Climate Change on the Water Footprint Trend in Saffron at Homogeneous Agroclimatic Regions of Khorasan ." Journal of Saffron Research. 10 (2), pp. 295-311. https://doi.org/10.22077/JSR.2022.5742.1199
Evaluation of CRU TS, GPCC, AgMERRA, and AgCFSR meteorological datasets for estimating climate and crop variables: A case study of maize in Qazvin Province, Iran
Paveh, Faraz Gorgin, Ramezani-Etedali, Hadi and Collins, Brian. 2022. "Evaluation of CRU TS, GPCC, AgMERRA, and AgCFSR meteorological datasets for estimating climate and crop variables: A case study of maize in Qazvin Province, Iran." Journal of Arid Land. 14 (12), pp. 1361-1376. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-022-0108-7
The chaos in calibrating crop models: lessons learned from a multi-model calibration exercise
Wallach, Daniel, Palosuo, Taru, Thorburn, Peter, Hochman, Zvi, Gourdain, Emmanuelle, Andrianasolo, Fety, Asseng, Senthold, Basso, Bruno, Buis, Samuel, Crout, Neil, Dibari, Camilla, Dumont, Benjamin, Ferrise, Roberto, Gaiser, Thomas, Garcia, Cecile, Gayler, Sebastian, Ghahramani, Afshin, Hiremath, Santosh, Hoek, Steven, ..., Seidel, Sabine J.. 2021. "The chaos in calibrating crop models: lessons learned from a multi-model calibration exercise." Environmental Modelling and Software. 145. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2021.105206
How well do crop modeling groups predict wheat phenology, given calibration data from the target population?
Wallach, Daniel, Palosuo, Taru, Thorburn, Peter, Gourdain, Emmanuelle, Asseng, Senthold, Basso, Bruno, Buis, Samuel, Crout, Neil, Dibari, Camilla, Dumont, Benjamin, Ferrise, Roberto, Gaiser, Thomas, Garcia, Cecile, Gayler, Sebastian, Ghahramani, Afshin, Hochman, Zvi, Hoek, Steven, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Horan, Heidi, ..., Seidel, Sabine J.. 2021. "How well do crop modeling groups predict wheat phenology, given calibration data from the target population?" European Journal of Agronomy. 124, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2020.126195
Investigating Spatiotemporal Variations of Precipitation across Iran over 1957-2016 using the CRU Gridded Dataset
Ramezani-Etedali, Hadi Ramezani and Ababaei, Behnam. 2021. "Investigating Spatiotemporal Variations of Precipitation across Iran over 1957-2016 using the CRU Gridded Dataset." Modares Civil Engineering journal. 21 (1), pp. 103-117.
Impacts of droughts on rainfall use efficiency in different climatic zones and land uses in Iran
Ahmadaali, Khaled, Damaneh, Hadi Eskandari, Ababaei, Behnam and Damaneh, Hamed Eskandari. 2021. "Impacts of droughts on rainfall use efficiency in different climatic zones and land uses in Iran ." Arabian Journal of Geosciences. 14 (2). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-020-06389-1
Limiting transpiration rate in high evaporative demand conditions to improve Australian wheat productivity
Collins, Brian, Chapman, Scott, Hammer, Graeme and Chenu, Karine. 2021. "Limiting transpiration rate in high evaporative demand conditions to improve Australian wheat productivity." In Silico Plants. 3 (1). https://doi.org/10.1093/insilicoplants/diab006
Improving productivity of Australian wheat by adapting sowing date and genotype phenology to future climate
Collins, Brian and Chenu, Karine. 2021. "Improving productivity of Australian wheat by adapting sowing date and genotype phenology to future climate." Climate Risk Management. 32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2021.100300
Spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration and reference crop water requirement over 1957–2016 in Iran based on CRU TS gridded dataset
Collins, Brian, Ramezani-Etedali, Hadi, Tavakol, Ameneh and Kaviani, Abbas. 2021. "Spatiotemporal variations of evapotranspiration and reference crop water requirement over 1957–2016 in Iran based on CRU TS gridded dataset." Journal of Arid Land. 13 (8), p. 858–878. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-021-0103-4
Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change
Stella, Tommaso, Webber, Heidi, Olesen, Jørgen E, Ruane, Alex C, Fronzek, Stefan, Bregaglio, Simone, Mamidanna, Sravya, Bindi, Marco, Collins, Brian, Faye, Babacar, Ferrise, Roberto, Fodor, Nandor, Gabaldón-Leal, Clara, Jabloun, Mohamed, Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian, Lizaso, Jon I, Lorite, Ignacio J, Manceau, Loic, Martre, Pierre, ..., Ewert, Frank. 2021. "Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change." Environmental Research Letters. 16 (10). https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2196
Functional-structural plant models mission in advancing crop science: opportunities and prospects
Soualiou, Soualihou, Wang, Zhiwei, Sun, Weiwei, de Reffye, Philippe, Collins, Brian, Louarn, Gaëtan and Song, Youhong. 2021. "Functional-structural plant models mission in advancing crop science: opportunities and prospects." Frontiers in Plant Science. 12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2021.747142
Heat shocks increasingly impede grain filling but have little effect on grain setting across the Australian Wheatbelt
Collins, Behnam and Chenu, Karine. 2020. "Heat shocks increasingly impede grain filling but have little effect on grain setting across the Australian Wheatbelt." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 284. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107889
Detection of major weather patterns reduces number of simulations in climate impact studies
Collins, Behnam and Najeeb, Ullah. 2020. "Detection of major weather patterns reduces number of simulations in climate impact studies." Journal of Agronomy and Crop Science. 206 (3), pp. 376-389. https://doi.org/10.1111/jac.12388
Spatio-temporal variations of seven weather variables in Iran: application of CRU TS and GPCC data sets
Ababaei, Behnam. 2020. "Spatio-temporal variations of seven weather variables in Iran: application of CRU TS and GPCC data sets." Irrigation and Drainage. 69 (1), pp. 164-185. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.2399
The impact of climate variability on water footprint components of rainfed wheat and barley in Qazvin province of Iran
Nazari, Rasta, Ramezani-Etedali, Hadi, Nazari, Bijan and Collins, Brian. 2020. "The impact of climate variability on water footprint components of rainfed wheat and barley in Qazvin province of Iran." Irrigation and Drainage. 69 (4), pp. 826-843. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.2487
Pan-European multi-crop model ensemble simulations of wheat and grain maize under climate change scenarios
Webber, Heidi, Cooke, Diane Kathleene, Ewert, Frank, Olesen, Jørgen E., Fronzek, Stefan, Ruane, Alex C., Martre, Pierre, Collins, Brian, Bindi, Marco, Ferrise, Roberto, Fodor, Nándor, Gabaldón-Leal, Clara, Gaiser, Thomas, Jabloun, Mohamed, Kersebaum, Kurt, Lizaso, Jon I., Lorite, Ignacio J., Manceau, Loic, Moriondo, Marco, ..., Trombi, Giacomo. 2020. "Pan-European multi-crop model ensemble simulations of wheat and grain maize under climate change scenarios ." Open Data Journal for Agricultural Research. 6, pp. 21-27. https://doi.org/10.18174/odjar.v6i0.16326
Investigating climate change over 1957–2016 in an arid environment with three drought indexes
Ababaei, Behnam and Ramezani-Etedali, Hadi. 2019. "Investigating climate change over 1957–2016 in an arid environment with three drought indexes." Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 137 (3), pp. 2977-2992. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-02793-0
Optimization of the cropping pattern of main cereals and improving water productivity: application of the water footprint concept
Ramezani-Etedali, Hadi, Ahmadaali, Khaled, Paveh, Faraz and Ababaei, Behnam. 2019. "Optimization of the cropping pattern of main cereals and improving water productivity: application of the water footprint concept." Irrigation and Drainage. 68, pp. 765-777. https://doi.org/10.1002/ird.2362
Using crop growth model stress covariates and AMMI decomposition to better predict genotype by environment interactions
Rincent, R., Malosetti, M., Collins, B., Ababaei, B., Touzy, G., Mini, A., Bogard, M., Martre, P., Le Gouis, J. and van Eeuwijk, F.. 2019. "Using crop growth model stress covariates and AMMI decomposition to better predict genotype by environment interactions." Theoretical and Applied Genetics: international journal of plant breeding research. 132 (12), pp. 3399-3411. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00122-019-03432-y
Validating a tool to assess eye health knowledge, attitude and practice in Cambodia and Vietnam
Prasad, Noela, Ormsby, Gail M. and Finger, Robert P.. 2019. "Validating a tool to assess eye health knowledge, attitude and practice in Cambodia and Vietnam." International Journal of Ophthalmology. 12 (11), pp. 1767-1774. https://doi.org/10.18240/ijo.2019.11.16
Knowledge, Attitudes and Practice of Diabetes in Rural Bangladesh: The Bangladesh Population Based Diabetes and Eye Study (BPDES)
Islam, Fakir M. Amirul, Chakrabarti, Rahul, Dirani, Mohamed, Islam, M. Tauhidul, Ormsby, Gail, Wahab, Mohamed, Critchley, Christine and Finger, Robert P.. 2014. "Knowledge, Attitudes and Practice of Diabetes in Rural Bangladesh: The Bangladesh Population Based Diabetes and Eye Study (BPDES)." PLoS One. 9 (10), pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0110368