How well do crop modeling groups predict wheat phenology, given calibration data from the target population?

Article

Wallach, Daniel, Palosuo, Taru, Thorburn, Peter, Gourdain, Emmanuelle, Asseng, Senthold, Basso, Bruno, Buis, Samuel, Crout, Neil, Dibari, Camilla, Dumont, Benjamin, Ferrise, Roberto, Gaiser, Thomas, Garcia, Cecile, Gayler, Sebastian, Ghahramani, Afshin, Hochman, Zvi, Hoek, Steven, Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Horan, Heidi, ..., Seidel, Sabine J.. 2021. "How well do crop modeling groups predict wheat phenology, given calibration data from the target population?" European Journal of Agronomy. 124, pp. 1-10. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2020.126195
Article Title

How well do crop modeling groups predict wheat phenology, given calibration data from the target population?

ERA Journal ID5307
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsWallach, Daniel (Author), Palosuo, Taru (Author), Thorburn, Peter (Author), Gourdain, Emmanuelle (Author), Asseng, Senthold (Author), Basso, Bruno (Author), Buis, Samuel (Author), Crout, Neil (Author), Dibari, Camilla (Author), Dumont, Benjamin (Author), Ferrise, Roberto (Author), Gaiser, Thomas (Author), Garcia, Cecile (Author), Gayler, Sebastian (Author), Ghahramani, Afshin (Author), Hochman, Zvi (Author), Hoek, Steven (Author), Hoogenboom, Gerrit (Author), Horan, Heidi (Author), Huang, Mingxia (Author), Jabloun, Mohamed (Author), Jing, Qi (Author), Justes, Eric (Author), Kersebaum, Kurt Christian (Author), Klosterhalfen, Anne (Author), Launay, Marie (Author), Luo, Qunying (Author), Maestrini, Bernardo (Author), Mielenz, Henrike (Author), Moriondo, Marco (Author), Zadeh, Hasti Nariman (Author), Olesen, Jorgen Eivind (Author), Poyda, Arne (Author), Priesack, Eckart (Author), Pullens, Johannes Wilhelmus Maria (Author), Qian, Budong (Author), Schutze, Niels (Author), Shelia, Vakhtang (Author), Souissi, Amir (Author), Specka, Xenia (Author), Srivastava, Amit Kumar (Author), Stella, Tommaso (Author), Streck, Thilo (Author), Trombi, Giacomo (Author), Wallor, Evelyn (Author), Wang, Jing (Author), Weber, Tobias K. D. (Author), Weihermuller, Lutz (Author), de Wit, Allard (Author), Wohling, Thomas (Author), Xiao, Liujun (Author), Zhao, Chuang (Author), Zhu, Yan (Author) and Seidel, Sabine J. (Author)
Journal TitleEuropean Journal of Agronomy
Journal Citation124, pp. 1-10
Article Number126195
Number of Pages10
Year2021
PublisherElsevier
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN1161-0301
1873-7331
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2020.126195
Web Address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030120302021
Abstract

Predicting phenology is essential for adapting varieties to different environmental conditions and for crop management. Therefore, it is important to evaluate how well different crop modeling groups can predict phenology. Multiple evaluation studies have been previously published, but it is still difficult to generalize the findings from such studies since they often test some specific aspect of extrapolation to new conditions, or do not test on data that is truly independent of the data used for calibration. In this study, we analyzed the prediction of wheat phenology in Northern France under observed weather and current management, which is a problem of practical importance for wheat management. The results of 27 modeling groups are evaluated, where modeling group encompasses model structure, i.e. the model equations, the calibration method and the values of those parameters not affected by calibration. The data for calibration and evaluation are sampled from the same target population, thus extrapolation is limited. The calibration and evaluation data have neither year nor site in common, to guarantee rigorous evaluation of prediction for new weather and sites. The best modeling groups, and also the mean and median of the simulations, have a mean absolute error (MAE) of about 3 days, which is comparable to the measurement error. Almost all models do better than using average number of days or average sum of degree days to predict phenology. On the other hand, there are important differences between modeling groups, due to model structural differences and to differences between groups using the same model structure, which emphasizes that model structure alone does not completely determine prediction accuracy. In addition to providing information for our specific environments and varieties, these results are a useful contribution to a knowledge base of how well modeling groups can predict phenology, when provided with calibration data from the target population.

KeywordsCrop model; Phenology prediction; Model evaluation; Wheat
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
300205. Agricultural production systems simulation
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Byline AffiliationsNational Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE), France
Natural Resources Institute, Finland
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Australia
Institute for Arable Crops, France
University of Florida, United States
Michigan State University, United States
University of Nottingham, United Kingdom
University of Florence, Italy
University of Liege, Belgium
University of Bonn, Germany
University of Hohenheim, Germany
Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems
Wageningen University, Netherlands
China Agricultural University, China
Agriculture and Agri-Food, Canada
French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), France
Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Germany
Forschungszentrum Julich, Germany
Hillridge Technology, Australia
Julius Kuhn Institute, Germany
Institute of BioEconomy, Italy
Aalto University, Finland
Aarhus University, Denmark
Christian-Albrecht University of Kiel, Germany
Helmholtz Munich, Germany
Dresden University of Technology, Germany
University of Carthage, Tunisia
Nanjing Agricultural University, China
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Thomas, D. S., Hayman, Peter and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2015. "Will modifying soil water holding capacity increase the resilience of southern Australian crop-livestock farms to climate change?" Weber, T., McPhee, M. J. and Anderssen, R. S. (ed.) 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015). Gold Coast, Australia 29 Nov - 04 Dec 2015 Canberra, Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Systemic adaptations to climate change in Western Australian mixed farm systems
Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andrew, Crimp, Steven and Bowran, David. 2015. "Systemic adaptations to climate change in Western Australian mixed farm systems." Weber, T., McPhee, M. J. and Anderssen, R. S. (ed.) 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2015). Gold Coast, Australia 29 Nov - 04 Dec 2015 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand .
Quantifying drivers of crop-livestock integration
Ghahramani, Afshin, Thomas, Dean and Moore, Andrew. 2015. "Quantifying drivers of crop-livestock integration." National Farm Business Risk Forum: Grain & Graze - Profit Through Knowledge (2015). Perth, Australia 17 Aug 2015
Adapting the Australian grassland & livestock industry to climate change by systemic adaptation: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale
Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andfrew, Crimp, Steven and Howden, Mark. 2014. "Adapting the Australian grassland & livestock industry to climate change by systemic adaptation: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale." 3rd International Climate Change Adaptation Conference: Adaptation Futures. Fortaleza/Ceará, Brazil 12 - 16 May 2014
Adapting the Australian livestock and wheat farms to climate change: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale
Ghahramani, A., Moore, A., Crimp, S. and Howden, M.. 2014. "Adapting the Australian livestock and wheat farms to climate change: value of adaptation at cross-regional scale." Livestock, Climate Change and Food Security Conference, 2014. Madrid, Spain 19 - 20 May 2014 Canberra, Australia.
Increasing soil fertility and altering legume-grass balance as adaptation strategies for sustainable livestock production under climate change
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew d.. 2012. "Increasing soil fertility and altering legume-grass balance as adaptation strategies for sustainable livestock production under climate change." 16th Australian Agronomy Conference: Capturing Opportunities and Overcoming Obstacles in Australian Agronomy (ASA 2012). Armidale, Australia 14 - 18 Oct 2012 Australia.
Climate change impact on Western Australian mixed farm systems
Ghahramani, Afshin, Moore, Andrew D., Crimp, Steven J. and Bowran, David. 2015. "Climate change impact on Western Australian mixed farm systems." 5th International Symposium for Farming Systems Design. Montpellier, France 07 - 10 Sep 2015
Estimated effects of climate change on grassland production and legume content across southern Australia
Moore, Andrew D. and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2013. "Estimated effects of climate change on grassland production and legume content across southern Australia." Michalk, David L., Millar, Geoffrey D., Badgery, Warwick B. and Broadfoot, Warwick B. (ed.) 22nd International Grassland Congress: Revitalising Grasslands to Sustain Our Communities. Sydney, Australia 15 - 19 Sep 2013 Orange, Australia.
Slope length effect on sediment and organic litter transport on a steep forested hillslope: upscaling from plot to hillslope scale
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu and Gomi, Takashi. 2011. "Slope length effect on sediment and organic litter transport on a steep forested hillslope: upscaling from plot to hillslope scale." Hydrological Research Letters. 5, pp. 16-20. https://doi.org/10.3178/hrl.5.16
Field experiments constraining the probability distribution of particle travel distances during natural rainstorms on different slope gradients
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu and Mudd, Simon M.. 2012. "Field experiments constraining the probability distribution of particle travel distances during natural rainstorms on different slope gradients." Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. 37 (5), pp. 473-485. https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.2253
Impact of extreme climatic events on wheat productivity in South-West, Western Australia
Peck, Matthew and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2016. "Impact of extreme climatic events on wheat productivity in South-West, Western Australia." Climate Adaptation 2016: Change, Challenge, Opportunity. Adelaide, Australia 05 - 07 Jul 2016 Adelaide, Australia.
Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 3. Adaptation options via livestock genetic improvement
Moore, Andrew D. and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2014. "Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 3. Adaptation options via livestock genetic improvement." Animal Production Science. 54 (2), pp. 111-124. https://doi.org/10.1071/AN13052
Evaluating transformative adaptation options for Australian extensive farming – a cross-transect analyses of systemic adaptations - July 2016 supplementary report
Ghahramani, Afshin, Crimp, Steven, Moore, Andrew, Lau, Rex and Hopwood, Garry. 2016. Evaluating transformative adaptation options for Australian extensive farming – a cross-transect analyses of systemic adaptations - July 2016 supplementary report. Canberra, Australia. CSIRO Publishing.
Effect of ground cover on splash and sheetwash erosion over a steep forested hillslope: a plot-scale study
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu, Gomi, Takashi, Shiraki, Katsushige and Miyata, Shusuke. 2011. "Effect of ground cover on splash and sheetwash erosion over a steep forested hillslope: a plot-scale study." Catena. 85 (1), pp. 34-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2010.11.005
Downslope soil detachment–transport on steep slopes via rain splash
Ghahramani, Afshin, Ishikawa, Yoshiharu, Gomi, Takashi and Miyata, Shusuke. 2011. "Downslope soil detachment–transport on steep slopes via rain splash." Hydrological Processes. 25 (15), pp. 2471-2480. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.8086
Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity, and on sustainable levels of profitability
Moore, Andrew and Ghahramani, Afshin. 2013. "Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity, and on sustainable levels of profitability." Global Change Biology. 19 (5), pp. 1440-1455. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12150
Water flux and sediment transport within a forested landscape: the role of connectivity, subsurface flow, and slope length scale on transport mechanism
Ghahramani, Afshin and Ishikawa, Yoshiharu. 2013. "Water flux and sediment transport within a forested landscape: the role of connectivity, subsurface flow, and slope length scale on transport mechanism." Hydrological Processes. 27 (26), pp. 4091-4102. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.9791
Sheep greenhouse gas emission intensities under different management practices, climate zones and enterprise types
Cottle, D. J., Harrison, M. T. and Ghahramani, A.. 2016. "Sheep greenhouse gas emission intensities under different management practices, climate zones and enterprise types." Animal Production Science. 56 (3), pp. 507-518. https://doi.org/10.1071/AN15327
Climate change impact and adaptation in temperate grassland and livestock industries
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2015. "Climate change impact and adaptation in temperate grassland and livestock industries." 23rd International Grassland Congress: sustainable use of grassland resources for forage production, biodiversity and environmental protection (IGC 2015). New Delhi, India 20 - 24 Nov 2015 Jhansi, India.
Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 2. Adaptation options via grassland management
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2013. "Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 2. Adaptation options via grassland management." Crop and Pasture Science. 64 (6), pp. 615-630. https://doi.org/10.1071/CP13195
Systemic adaptations to climate change in southern Australian grasslands and livestock: production, profitability, methane emission and ecosystem function
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2015. "Systemic adaptations to climate change in southern Australian grasslands and livestock: production, profitability, methane emission and ecosystem function." Agricultural Systems. 133, pp. 158-166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2014.11.003
The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale
Ghahramani, Afshin, Kokic, Philip N., Moore, Andrew D., Zheng, Bangyou, Chapman, Scott C., Howden, Mark S. and Crimp, Steven J.. 2015. "The value of adapting to climate change in Australian wheat farm systems: farm to cross-regional scale." Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 211, pp. 112-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2015.05.011
Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems
Ghahramani, Afshin and Moore, Andrew D.. 2016. "Impact of climate changes on existing crop-livestock farming systems." Agricultural Systems. 146, pp. 142-155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.05.011
Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape
Chipanshi, Aston, Zhang, Yinsuo, Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Davidson, Andrew, Hill, Harvey, Warren, Richard, Qian, Budong, Daneshfar, Bahram, Bedard, Frederic and Reichert, Gordon. 2015. "Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 206, pp. 137-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.03.007
Enhancing secrecy capacity of multi-relay wiretap systems with partial channel state information
Long, Hang, Xiang, Wei, Wang, Jing, Zhang, Xiaoli and Wang, Wenbo. 2015. "Enhancing secrecy capacity of multi-relay wiretap systems with partial channel state information." International Journal of Communication Systems. 28 (12), pp. 1847-1861. https://doi.org/10.1002/dac.2802
Development and application of process-based simulation models for cotton production: a review of past, present, and future directions
Thorp, K. R., Ale, S., Bange, M. P., Barnes, E. M., Hoogenboom, G., Lascano, R. J., McCarthy, A. C., Nair, S., Paz, J. O., Rajan, N., Reddy, K. R., Wall, G. W. and White, J. W.. 2014. "Development and application of process-based simulation models for cotton production: a review of past, present, and future directions." Journal of Cotton Science. 18 (1), pp. 10-47.
Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system
Djaby, Bakary, de Wit, Allard, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2013. "Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system." Sustainable Agriculture Research. 2 (4), pp. 12-29. https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n4p12
Impacts of land use/land cover change on climate and future research priorities
Mahmood, Rezaul, Pielke, Roger A., Hubbard, Kenneth G., Niyogi, Dev, Bonan, Gordon, Lawrence, Peter, McNider, Richard, McAlpine, Clive, Etter, Andres, Gameda, Samuel, Qian, Budong, Carleton, Andrew, Beltran-Przekurat, Adriana, Chase, Thomas, Quintanar, Arturo I., Adegoke, Jimmy O., Vezhapparambu, Sajith, Conner, Glen, Asefi, Salvi, ..., Syktus, Jozef. 2010. "Impacts of land use/land cover change on climate and future research priorities." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 91 (1), pp. 37-46. https://doi.org/10.1175/2009BAMS2769.1