Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system

Article

Djaby, Bakary, de Wit, Allard, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2013. "Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system." Sustainable Agriculture Research. 2 (4), pp. 12-29. https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n4p12
Article Title

Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system

ERA Journal ID201542
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsDjaby, Bakary (Author), de Wit, Allard (Author), Kouadio, Louis (Author), El Jarroudi, Moussa (Author) and Tychon, Bernard (Author)
Journal TitleSustainable Agriculture Research
Journal Citation2 (4), pp. 12-29
Number of Pages18
Year2013
Place of PublicationCanada
ISSN1927-050X
1927-0518
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n4p12
Abstract

We investigate in this study (i) a redefinition of crop variety zonations at a spatial scale of 10x10 km, and (ii) the influence of recalibrated crop parameters on regional yield forecasting of winter wheat and grain maize in western Europe. The baseline zonation and initial crop parameter set was derived from the operational European crop growth monitoring system (CGMS) which involves the agrometeorological model WOFOST. Air temperature data from 325 weather stations over the 1992-2007 period were used to define new zonations in a 300 x 300 km test site. Two parameters which influenced mostly the phenological development stages (i.e. TSUM1 and TSUM2, the effective air temperature sums from emergence to anthesis, and from anthesis to maturity, respectively) were chosen and calibrated. The CGMS was finally run based on these new recalibrated parameters and simulated crop status indicators were compared with official statistics over the 2000-2007 period. Our results showed that the days of anthesis and maturity were simulated with coefficients of determination (R2) ranging from 0.22 to 0.87 for both crops over the study site. A qualitative assessment of maximum leaf area index and harvest index also revealed a more consistent spatial pattern than the initial zonation in the simulation results. Finally, recalibrated TSUM1 and TSUM2 led to improved relationships between official yield and simulated crop indicators (significant R2 in 17 out of 28 and in 14 out of 59 NUTS3 regions with respect to the best predictor for grain maize and winter wheat, respectively).

KeywordsWOFOST, regional scale, variety zonation, yield forecasting, winter wheat, grain maize
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300205. Agricultural production systems simulation
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
Public Notes

Copyright for this article is retained by the author(s), with first publication rights granted to the journal.
This is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).

Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Liege, Belgium
Wageningen University, Netherlands
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Potgieter, Andries, McLean, Greg and Hill, Harvey. 2015. "Exploring the potential impacts of climate variability on spring wheat yield with the APSIM decision support tool." Agricultural Sciences. 6 (7), pp. 686-698. https://doi.org/10.4236/as.2015.67066
Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change
Williams, Allyson, White, Neil, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cockfield, Geoff, Power, Brendan and Kouadio, Louis. 2015. "Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 129 (1-2), pp. 183-196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1305-y
Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape
Chipanshi, Aston, Zhang, Yinsuo, Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Davidson, Andrew, Hill, Harvey, Warren, Richard, Qian, Budong, Daneshfar, Bahram, Bedard, Frederic and Reichert, Gordon. 2015. "Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 206, pp. 137-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.03.007
A comparison between visual estimates and image analysis measurements to determine Septoria leaf blotch severity in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, A. L., Mackels, C., Tychon, B., Delfosse, P. and Bock, C. H.. 2015. "A comparison between visual estimates and image analysis measurements to determine Septoria leaf blotch severity in winter wheat." Plant Pathology. 64 (2), pp. 355-364. https://doi.org/10.1111/ppa.12252
Building capacity for assessing spatial-based sustainability metrics in agriculture
Kouadio, Louis and Newlands, Nathaniel K.. 2015. "Building capacity for assessing spatial-based sustainability metrics in agriculture." Decision Analytics. 2 (2). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40165-015-0011-9
Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Beyer, Marco, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Tychon, Bernard, Maraite, Henri, Bock, Clive H. and Delfosse, Philippe. 2015. "Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." Field Crops Research. 172, pp. 32-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.11.012
Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments
Bock, C. H., El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L. A., Mackels, C., Chiang, K.-S. and Delfosse, P.. 2015. "Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments." Plant Disease. 99 (8), pp. 1104-1112. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-09-14-0925-RE
Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale
Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel K., Davidson, Andrew, Zhang, Yinsuo and Chipanshi, Aston. 2014. "Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale." Remote Sensing. 6 (10), pp. 10193-10214. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs61010193
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Giraud, Frederic, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4809-4818. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-014-2557-9
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4797-4808. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-013-2463-6
An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty
Newlands, Nathaniel K., Zamar, David S., Kouadio, Louis A., Zhang, Yinsuo, Chipanshi, Aston, Potgieter, Andries, Toure, Souleymane and Hill, Harvey S. J.. 2014. "An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty." Frontiers in Environmental Science. 2, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00017
A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing
Bock, Clive, El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Chiang, Kuo-Szu and Delfosse, Philippe. 2014. "A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing." Phytopathology: International Journal of the American Phytopathological Society. 104 (11), pp. 15-16.
Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates
Kouadio, Louis, Djaby, Bakary, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1203-1213.
Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]
Kouadio, Amani Louis, Djaby, Bakary, Duveiller, Gregory, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]." Biotechnology, Agronomy, Society and Environment. 16 (2), pp. 179-191.
Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe, Giraud, Frederic, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Maraite, Henri and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1386-1399.
Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Tychon, Bernard, Delfosse, Philippe and Bock, Clive H.. 2014. "Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat." 2014 APS-CPS Joint Meeting. Minneapolis, United States of America 09 - 13 Aug 2014 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-104-11-S3.1
Profitability of using warning system for foliar disease of wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L., Beyer, M., Tychon, B. and Delfosse, P.. 2013. "Profitability of using warning system for foliar disease of wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." 2013 APS-MSA Joint Meeting. United States 10 - 14 Aug 2013 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-103-6-S2.1