Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change
Article
Article Title | Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change |
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ERA Journal ID | 1965 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Williams, Allyson (Author), White, Neil (Author), Mushtaq, Shahbaz (Author), Cockfield, Geoff (Author), Power, Brendan (Author) and Kouadio, Louis (Author) |
Journal Title | Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change |
Journal Citation | 129 (1-2), pp. 183-196 |
Number of Pages | 14 |
Year | 2015 |
Publisher | Springer |
Place of Publication | Netherlands |
ISSN | 0165-0009 |
1573-1480 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1305-y |
Web Address (URL) | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-014-1305-y |
Abstract | The paper evaluates the effect of future climate change (as per the CSIRO Mk3.5 A1FI future climate projection) on cotton yield in Southern Queensland and Northern NSW, eastern Australia by using of the biophysical simulation model APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator). The simulations of cotton production show that changes in the influential meteorological parameters caused by climate change would lead to decreased future cotton yields without the effect of CO2 fertilisation. By 2050 the yields would decrease by 17%. Including the effects of CO2 fertilisation ameliorates the effect of decreased water availability and yields increase by 5.9% by 2030, but then decrease by 3.6% in 2050. Importantly, it was necessary to increase irrigation amounts by almost 50% to maintain adequate soil moisture levels. The effect of CO2 was found to have an important positive impact of the yield in spite of deleterious climate change. This implies that the physiological response of plants to climate change needs to be thoroughly understood to avoid making erroneous projections of yield and potentially stifling investment or increasing risk. |
Keywords | climate change; cotton production; APSIM |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 300205. Agricultural production systems simulation |
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling | |
300403. Agronomy | |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | Institute for Agriculture and the Environment |
Department of Biological and Physical Sciences | |
Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Queensland | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q36v0/quantifying-the-response-of-cotton-production-in-eastern-australia-to-climate-change
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