The science and policy of climate variability and climate change: intersections and possibilities

Edited book (chapter)

Cockfield, Geoff and Dovers, Stephen. 2013. "The science and policy of climate variability and climate change: intersections and possibilities." Botterill, Linda Courtenay and Cockfield, Geoff (ed.) Drought, risk management, and policy: decision-making under uncertainty. Boca Raton, FL. United States. CRC Press. pp. 29-44
Chapter Title

The science and policy of climate variability and climate change: intersections and possibilities

Book Chapter CategoryEdited book (chapter)
ERA Publisher ID1624
3415
Book TitleDrought, risk management, and policy: decision-making under uncertainty
AuthorsCockfield, Geoff (Author) and Dovers, Stephen (Author)
EditorsBotterill, Linda Courtenay and Cockfield, Geoff
Page Range29-44
SeriesDrought and Water Crises
Chapter Number3
Number of Pages16
Year2013
PublisherCRC Press
Taylor & Francis
Place of PublicationBoca Raton, FL. United States
ISBN9781439876299
9781439876503
Web Address (URL)http://www.crcnetbase.com/isbn/978-1-4398-7629-9
Abstract

Drought policies have generally been attempts to manage, adapt to, and ameliorate the impacts of climate variability with the assumption that this is variability around long-term averages in rainfall, temperatures, and crop and water yields. As noted in Chapter 1, this results in either or both reac­tive policies to address the effects of particular droughts and anticipatory policies to encourage resources managers to prepare for dry periods. With the emergence of concerns about climate change, discussions of drought policy will increasingly have to consider both variability and the possibility of underlying long-term changes in the key climatic variables-that is, non­ stationarity. This chapter will first review the points where the sciences relat­ing to climate change and climate variability are intersecting. Second, the policy implications of adjusting to increased variability and, in some cases, increasing drought frequency are considered. Third, there is a discussion of the ways in which popular narratives about drought and climate change interact, with a particular focus on the ways that resource users interpret the two phenomena and in some cases use one (drought) to refute the other (climate change).

Keywordsclimate change; government policy; drought proofing; mitigation
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020440709. Public policy
370202. Climatology
300202. Agricultural land management
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Byline AffiliationsAustralian Centre for Sustainable Catchments
Australian National University
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Devkota, Rohini Prasad, Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Cockfield, Geoff and Devkota, Laxmi Prasad. 2013. "Flood vulnerability through the eyes of vulnerable people in mid-western Terai of Nepal." Journal of Earth Science and Climactic Change. 4 (1), pp. 1-7. https://doi.org/10.4172/2157-7617.1000132
Relocation of intensive agriculture to northern Queensland: the cotton industry
White, Neil, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cockfield, Geoff and Power, Brendan. 2012. Relocation of intensive agriculture to northern Queensland: the cotton industry. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Relocation of intensive agriculture to northern Australia: the case of the rice industry
Cockfield, Geoff, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and White, Neil. 2012. Relocation of intensive agriculture to northern Australia: the case of the rice industry. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Plausible futures for regional development and structural adjustment under climate change: a case of the rice industry in Australia
Mushtaq, S., Cockfield, G., White, N. and Jakeman, G.. 2012. "Plausible futures for regional development and structural adjustment under climate change: a case of the rice industry in Australia." Lepetit, Julien (ed.) Water and Climate: Policy Implementation Challenges - 2nd Practical Responses to Climate Change Conference 2012. Canberra, Australia 01 - 03 May 2012 Canberra, Australia.
Evolution of agroforestry based farming systems: a study of Dhanusha District, Nepal
Dhakal, Arun, Cockfield, Geoff and Maraseni, Tek Narayan. 2012. "Evolution of agroforestry based farming systems: a study of Dhanusha District, Nepal." Agroforestry Systems. 86 (1), pp. 17-33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-012-9504-x
Signs of countrymindedness: a survey of attitudes to rural industries and people
Cockfield, Geoff and Botterill, Linda Courtenay. 2012. "Signs of countrymindedness: a survey of attitudes to rural industries and people." Australian Journal of Political Science. 47 (4), pp. 609-622. https://doi.org/10.1080/10361146.2012.731482
The evolution of rural policy: the Antipodean experience
Cockfield, Geoff and Botterill, Linda Courtenay. 2012. "The evolution of rural policy: the Antipodean experience." Policy and Society. 31 (4), pp. 343-353. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polsoc.2012.09.006
Climate and environmental risk management through structural adjustment and regional relocation: a case of rice industry in Australia
Mushtaq, S., Cockfield, G., White, N. and Jakeman, G.. 2012. "Climate and environmental risk management through structural adjustment and regional relocation: a case of rice industry in Australia." 1st National Symposium and Workshop on Environmental Science (IESM 2012): Environmental Science in a Changing Environment. Manila, Philippines 07 - 08 May 2012 Manile, Philippines.
Enhancing the value of multiple use plantations: a case study from southeast Queensland, Australia
Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Cockfield, Geoff, Cadman, Tim, Chen, Guangnan and Qu, Jiansheng. 2012. "Enhancing the value of multiple use plantations: a case study from southeast Queensland, Australia." Agroforestry Systems. 86 (3), pp. 451-462. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10457-012-9506-8
The perception of Nepal's Tharu community in regard to climate change and its impacts on their livelihoods
Devkota, Rohini Prasad, Babracharya, Babina, Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Cockfield, Geoff and Upadhyay, Bidur Prasad. 2011. "The perception of Nepal's Tharu community in regard to climate change and its impacts on their livelihoods." International Journal of Environmental Studies. 68 (6), pp. 937-946. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207233.2011.587282
The regional economic impacts of introducing dual function forestry into an agricultural landscape
Cockfield, Geoff, Chalmers, Linden, Apan, Armando and Thompson, David. 2011. "The regional economic impacts of introducing dual function forestry into an agricultural landscape." Australasian Journal of Regional Studies. 17 (2), pp. 146-173.
Including the costs of water and greenhouse gas emissions in a reassessment of the profitability of irrigation
Maraseni, T. N. and Cockfield, G.. 2012. "Including the costs of water and greenhouse gas emissions in a reassessment of the profitability of irrigation." Agricultural Water Management. 103 (1), pp. 25-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2011.10.014
Analysis of spacing for spotted gum plantations for maximising merchantable logs' volume in South East Queensland, Australia
Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Cockfield, Geoff and Apan, Armando. 2007. "Analysis of spacing for spotted gum plantations for maximising merchantable logs' volume in South East Queensland, Australia." Harrison, Steve, Herbohn, John and Bosch, Annerine (ed.) IUFRO 3.08 Conference: Improving The Triple Bottom Line Returns From Small-scale Forestry. Ormoc City, The Philippines 17 - 21 Jun 2007 Queensland, Australia.
Spatial prioritisation of revegetation sites for dryland salinity management: an analytical framework using GIS
Apan, Armando, Raine, Steven R., Le Brocque, Andrew F. and Cockfield, Geoff. 2004. "Spatial prioritisation of revegetation sites for dryland salinity management: an analytical framework using GIS." Journal of Environmental Planning and Management. 47 (6), pp. 811-825. https://doi.org/10.1080/0964056042000284848
Analysis of spacing for spotted gum plantations for maximizing merchantable logs' volume in Southeast Queensland, Australia
Maraseni, Tek N., Cockfield, Geoff and Apan, Armando. 2011. "Analysis of spacing for spotted gum plantations for maximizing merchantable logs' volume in Southeast Queensland, Australia." Journal of Sustainable Forestry. 30 (7), pp. 619-636. https://doi.org/10.1080/10549811.2010.550548
Back from the brink? The National Party after the 2010 federal election
Cockfield, Geoff and Botterill, Linda Courtenay. 2011. "Back from the brink? The National Party after the 2010 federal election." Australian Journal of Political Science. 46 (2), pp. 341-351. https://doi.org/10.1080/10361146.2011.568935
Does the adoption of zero tillage reduce greenhouse gas emissions? An assessment for the grains industry in Australia
Maraseni, T. N. and Cockfield, G.. 2011. "Does the adoption of zero tillage reduce greenhouse gas emissions? An assessment for the grains industry in Australia." Agricultural Systems. 104 (6), pp. 451-458. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2011.03.002
Socio-economic implications of climate change with regard to forests and forest management. Contribution of work package 3 to the forest vulnerability assessment
Cockfield, Geoff, Maraseni, Tek, Buys, Laurie, Sommerfeld, Jeffrey, Wilson, Clevo and Athukorala, Wasantha. 2011. Socio-economic implications of climate change with regard to forests and forest management. Contribution of work package 3 to the forest vulnerability assessment. Gold Coast, Australia. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF).
Crops, cows or timber? Including carbon values in land use choices
Maraseni, Tek Narayan and Cockfield, Geoff. 2011. "Crops, cows or timber? Including carbon values in land use choices." Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment. 140 (1-2), pp. 280-288. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2010.12.015
An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions: implications for the Australian cotton industry
Maraseni, T. N., Cockfield, G. and Maroulis, J.. 2010. "An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions: implications for the Australian cotton industry." The Journal of Agricultural Science. 148 (5), pp. 501-510. https://doi.org/10.1017/S002185960999058X
Vegetation management, grazing and invertebrate assemblages in the Traprock region
Attwood, Simon J., Le Brocque, Andrew F., Cockfield, Geoff and Schumacher, Roslyn. 2006. Vegetation management, grazing and invertebrate assemblages in the Traprock region . Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Prospects for regional sustainability: land use change in the eastern Darling Downs, 1975-2001
Zammit, Charlie, Apan, Armando, Cockfield, Geoff, Le Brocque, Andrew F. and Bouldin, Michelle. 2002. "Prospects for regional sustainability: land use change in the eastern Darling Downs, 1975-2001." 11th Australasian Remote Sensing and Photogrammetry Conference (ARSPC2002): Images to Information. Brisbane, Australia 02 - 06 Sep 2002
An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the Australian vegetables industry
Maraseni, Tek N., Cockfield, Geoff, Maroulis, Jerry and Chen, Guangnan. 2010. "An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the Australian vegetables industry." Journal of Environmental Science and Health Part B: Pesticides, Food Contaminants, and Agricultural Wastes. 45 (6), pp. 578-588. https://doi.org/10.1080/03601234.2010.493497
An assessment of silvipasture potential in southeast Queensland, Australia
Maraseni, Tek N., Cockfield, Geoff and Maroulis, Jerry. 2009. "An assessment of silvipasture potential in southeast Queensland, Australia." Australasian Journal of Regional Studies. 15 (3), pp. 297-310.
Characterising land ownership patterns in a salt-affected catchment: key implications for revegetation
Apan, Armando, Raine, Steven R., Cockfield, Geoff and Le Brocque, Andrew F.. 2003. "Characterising land ownership patterns in a salt-affected catchment: key implications for revegetation." 2003 Spatial Sciences Institute Biennial Conference: Spatial Knowledge Without Boundaries (SSC2003). Canberra, Australia 22 - 27 Sep 2003 Canberra, Australia.
Comparison of soil carbon in scrubland, cropping land, pasture land and spotted gum land in low rainfall area of Southeast Queensland
Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Mathers, Nicole, Cockfield, Geoff, Apan, Armando and Harms, Ben. 2006. "Comparison of soil carbon in scrubland, cropping land, pasture land and spotted gum land in low rainfall area of Southeast Queensland." World Resource Review. 18 (3), pp. 412-412.
Analysing sex ratio variables in Nepal
Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Cockfield, Geoff, Nooriafshar, Mehryar and Apan, Armando. 2006. "Analysing sex ratio variables in Nepal." Burge, Andrew (ed.) 5th Annual Hawaii International Conference on Statistics, Mathematics and Related Fields. Honolulu, Hawaii 16 - 18 Jan 2006 Hawaii, USA.
Declining birds in Australian agricultural landscapes may benefit from aspects of the European agri-environment model
Attwood, Simon J., Park, Sarah E., Maron, Martine, Collard, Stuart J., Robinson, Doug, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn M. and Cockfield, Geoff. 2009. "Declining birds in Australian agricultural landscapes may benefit from aspects of the European agri-environment model ." Biological Conservation. 142 (10), pp. 1981-1991. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.04.008
From country to national to regional
Cockfield, Geoff and Botterill, Linda Courtenay. 2009. "From country to national to regional." Botterill, Linda Courtenay and Cockfield, Geoff (ed.) The National Party: prospects for the great survivors. Sydney, Australia. Allen & Unwin. pp. 191-204
Remembering agrarian collectivism
Cockfield, Geoff. 2009. "Remembering agrarian collectivism." Botterill, Linda Courtenay and Cockfield, Geoff (ed.) The National Party: prospects for the great survivors. Sydney, Australia. Allen & Unwin. pp. 116-136
A rural party in an urban nation
Cockfield, Geoff. 2009. "A rural party in an urban nation." Botterill, Linda Courtenay and Cockfield, Geoff (ed.) The National Party: prospects for the great survivors. Sydney, Australia. Allen & Unwin. pp. 42-66
Socio-economic change and party survival
Botterill, Linda Courtenay and Cockfield, Geoff. 2009. "Socio-economic change and party survival." Botterill, Linda Courtenay and Cockfield, Geoff (ed.) The National Party: prospects for the great survivors. Sydney, Australia. Allen & Unwin. pp. 1-9
An analysis of Australia's carbon pollution reduction scheme
Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Maroulis, Jerry and Cockfield, Geoff. 2009. "An analysis of Australia's carbon pollution reduction scheme." International Journal of Environmental Studies. 66 (5), pp. 591-603. https://doi.org/10.1080/00207230902916190
Retaining trees in a grazing landscape: impacts on ground cover in sheep-grazing agro-ecosystems in southern Queensland
Le Brocque, Andrew F., Goodhew, Kellie A. and Cockfield, Geoff. 2008. "Retaining trees in a grazing landscape: impacts on ground cover in sheep-grazing agro-ecosystems in southern Queensland." Veg Futures 08: Australia's National Vegetation Conference 2008. Toowoomba, Australia 20 - 23 Oct 2008 Toowoomba, Qld, Australia.
Managing trade-offs in landscape restoration and revegetation projects
Maron, Martine and Cockfield, Geoff. 2008. "Managing trade-offs in landscape restoration and revegetation projects." Ecological Applications. 18 (8), pp. 2041-2049. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-1328.1
Accounting approaches for valuing forest non-market carbon, soil and medicinal outputs changes in developing countries
Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Cockfield, Geoff and Apan, Armando. 2009. "Accounting approaches for valuing forest non-market carbon, soil and medicinal outputs changes in developing countries." Austrian Journal of Forest Science. 126 (1-2), pp. 77-99.
Vegetation changes following the exclusion of grazing in the Traprock region
Le Brocque, Andrew F. and Cockfield, Geoff. 2008. Vegetation changes following the exclusion of grazing in the Traprock region. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland, Australian Centre for Sustainable Catchments / Traprock Wool Association Inc..
Factors affecting trust within Australian beef supply chain
Chua, Roberta Li, Cockfield, Geoff and Al-Hakim, Latif. 2008. "Factors affecting trust within Australian beef supply chain." Kachitvichyanukul, Voratas, Yenradee, Pisal and Gong, Da-Chuan (ed.) ICLS 2008: Effective Supply Chain and Logistic Management for Sustainable Development. Bangkok, Thailand 26 - 28 Nov 2008 Bangkok, Thailand.
Comparing and predicting soil carbon quantities under different land use systems on the red ferrosol soils of southeast Queensland
Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Mathers, Nicole J., Harms, Ben, Cockfield, Geoff, Apan, Armando and Maroulis, Jerry. 2008. "Comparing and predicting soil carbon quantities under different land use systems on the red ferrosol soils of southeast Queensland." Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. 63 (4), pp. 250-256. https://doi.org/10.2489/jswc.63.4.250
An estimation of willingness to pay for asparagus (Asparagus racemosus Willd.) collectors in Makawanpur District, Nepal
Maraseni, T. N., Maroulis, J. and Cockfield, G.. 2008. "An estimation of willingness to pay for asparagus (Asparagus racemosus Willd.) collectors in Makawanpur District, Nepal." Journal of Forest Science: Prague. 54 (3), pp. 131-137.
Estimation of taper rates and volume of smaller-sized logs in spotted gum saw timber plantations in Southeast Queensland, Australia
Maraseni, T. N., Cockfield, G. and Apan, A.. 2007. "Estimation of taper rates and volume of smaller-sized logs in spotted gum saw timber plantations in Southeast Queensland, Australia." Southern Forests: a journal of forest science. 69 (3), pp. 169-173. https://doi.org/10.2989/SHFJ.2007.69.3.6.356
The impact of employment and domestic situations on student performance in introductory economics
Cockfield, Geoff. 2006. "The impact of employment and domestic situations on student performance in introductory economics." International Journal of Business and Management Education. 14 (1), pp. 1-13.
Reporting the drought: a study of news cycles
Cockfield, Geoff and Easton, Kim. 2003. "Reporting the drought: a study of news cycles." Australian Journalism Review. 25 (1), pp. 165-180.
Rural adjustment schemes: juggling politics, welfare and markets
Cockfield, Geoff and Botterill, Linda Courtenay. 2006. "Rural adjustment schemes: juggling politics, welfare and markets." Australian Journal of Public Administration. 65 (2), pp. 70-82. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8500.2006.00483.x
From the Australian Wheat Board to AWB Limited: collective marketing and privatisation in Australia's wheat export trade
Cockfield, Geoff and Botterill, Linda Courtenay. 2007. "From the Australian Wheat Board to AWB Limited: collective marketing and privatisation in Australia's wheat export trade." Public Policy. 2 (1), pp. 44-57.
Introduction [to New perspectives on Adam Smith's The theory of moral sentiments]
Cockfield, Geoff, Firth, Ann and Laurent, John. 2007. "Introduction [to New perspectives on Adam Smith's The theory of moral sentiments]." Cockfield, Geoff, Firth, Ann and Laurent, John (ed.) New perspectives on Adam Smith's The theory of moral sentiments. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA. Edward Elgar Publishing. pp. 1-10
Adam Smith, Charles Darwin and the moral sense
Laurent, John and Cockfield, Geoff. 2007. "Adam Smith, Charles Darwin and the moral sense." Cockfield, Geoff, Firth, Ann and Laurent, John (ed.) New perspectives on Adam Smith's The theory of moral sentiments. Cheltenham, UK, and Northampton, MA. Edward Elgar Publishing. pp. 141-162
Valuing ecosystem services from forests: a multidisplinary field-based approach
Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Cockfield, Geoff and Apan, Armando. 2005. "Valuing ecosystem services from forests: a multidisplinary field-based approach." IUFRO World Congress: Forests in the Balance: Linking Tradition and Technology (2005). Brisbane, Australia 08 - 13 Aug 2005
Estimation of shrub biomass: development and evaluation of allometric models leading to innovative teaching methods
Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Cockfield, Geoff, Apan, Armando and Mathers, Nicole. 2005. "Estimation of shrub biomass: development and evaluation of allometric models leading to innovative teaching methods." International Journal of Business and Management Education.
A comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from inputs into farm enterprises in Southeast Queensland, Australia
Maraseni, Tek N., Cockfield, Geoff and Apan, Armando. 2007. "A comparison of greenhouse gas emissions from inputs into farm enterprises in Southeast Queensland, Australia." Journal of Environmental Science and Health Part A: Toxic Hazardous Substances and Environmental Engineering. 42 (1), pp. 11-18. https://doi.org/10.1080/10934520601015354
Vegetation management, grazing and arthropod assemblages in the Traprock region: interim report
Attwood, Simon J., Le Brocque, Andrew F., Cockfield, Geoff and Schumacher, Roslyn. 2005. Vegetation management, grazing and arthropod assemblages in the Traprock region: interim report. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Technical report: effect of vegetation management on woodland communities in the Traprock region
Le Brocque, Andrew F., Goodhew, Kellie A. and Cockfield, Geoff. 2005. Technical report: effect of vegetation management on woodland communities in the Traprock region. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Analysis of 'on-time' and 'late' assignment submitter students
Maraseni, Tek Narayan and Cockfield, Geoff. 2006. "Analysis of 'on-time' and 'late' assignment submitter students." International Journal of Business and Management Education. 14 (2), pp. 14-25.
Trees in a grazing landscape: vegetation patterns in sheep-grazing agro-ecosystems in Southern Queensland
Le Brocque, Andrew F., Cockfield, Geoff and Goodhew, Kellie A.. 2006. "Trees in a grazing landscape: vegetation patterns in sheep-grazing agro-ecosystems in Southern Queensland." Timmins, Susan (ed.) 3rd Joint Conference of the New Zealand Ecological Society and the Ecological Society of Australia. Wellington, New Zealand 28 Aug - 01 Sep 2006 Wellington, New Zealand.
Nepalese non-timber forest products: an analysis of the equitability of profit distribution across a supply chain to India
Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Shivakoti, Ganesh P., Cockfield, Geoff and Apan, Armando. 2006. "Nepalese non-timber forest products: an analysis of the equitability of profit distribution across a supply chain to India." Small-Scale Forestry. 5 (2), pp. 191-206.
Community based forest management systems in developing countries and eligibility for clean development mechanism
Maraseni, Tek Narayan, Cockfield, Geoff and Apan, Armando. 2005. "Community based forest management systems in developing countries and eligibility for clean development mechanism." Journal of Forest and Livelihood. 4 (2), pp. 31-42.
The 2004 federal election: impacts for regions
Cockfield, Geoff and Prasser, Scott. 2005. "The 2004 federal election: impacts for regions." Public Administration Today.