Developing products for use in drought monitoring: improved crop yield and production forecasts (multi-crop models approach)

Project report


Kouadio, Louis, Marcussen, Torben and McRae, David. 2017. Developing products for use in drought monitoring: improved crop yield and production forecasts (multi-crop models approach). Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Title

Developing products for use in drought monitoring: improved crop yield and production forecasts (multi-crop models
approach)

Report TypeProject report
AuthorsKouadio, Louis (Author), Marcussen, Torben (Author) and McRae, David (Author)
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
Number of Pages45
Year2017
PublisherUniversity of Southern Queensland
Place of PublicationToowoomba, Australia
Abstract

Given the variety of crop growth models and their relative strengths and weaknesses, ensembles of crop models are being progressively developed for yield/production forecasting purposes, quantification of the impact on yield of changes due to climate or crop management. Such approach helps improve accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics under various environmental conditions. The aim of the project is to develop an operational integrated seasonal climate-crop modelling system for yield and production forecasting of major crops in Queensland (wheat, sorghum, sugarcane and cotton).

A focused literature review was conducted in order to select potential crop models for the multi-model Ensemble. The main criteria used include: (1) the popularity of the model (at national and international levels), (2) its performance as reported in published studies, (3) the model structure and easiness of use within the project time frame (e.g., implementation, data collection and calibration, etc.), (4) the availability of model updates, and (5) a crop model which considers the various aspects of climate change as drivers (including rainfall, atmospheric CO2, temperature and ozone). The models APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) and DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) were then selected after review.

We also conducted a calibration/parameterisation of the selected models and performed the growth and yield simulation for wheat, sorghum, sugarcane and cotton. Different combinations of factors (crop management practices) were used to evaluate the ability of these models to give reasonable results in such various conditions at 10 to 19 selected simulation sites across the agricultural landscape in Queensland. Because the simulation configurations represent a range of crop management practices, soil types, crop varieties, etc., the aim was not to predict 'one single' yield value. Rather, the objective was to configure the models so that it can be used for impact analysis and/or be coupled to other forecasting systems.

Comparing the simulated yields (from each model or the mean simulated value from the Ensemble) to the observed yield (available at regional scale) the overall trend in year to year variability is satisfactorily captured for cotton across the different sets of configurations, whereas for the other crops, there is generally a trend to yield overestimation or underestimation depending on the site and year. A statistical assessment of model performance revealed RMSE values as low as 0.27 t ha-1 and 0.40 t ha-1 for cotton and sorghum, respectively, in APSIM simulations; the respective values in DSSAT being 0.17 t ha-1 and 0.37 t ha-1, and 0.24 t ha-1 and 0.45 t ha-1, for the Ensemble. The spread of RMSE variation however was lesser for wheat and cotton compared to sorghum, regardless of the model. Similar pattern is observed with MAE values. Regarding sugarcane the variations of RMSE and MAE in DSSAT simulations and the Ensemble were the lowest.

A modelling framework was thus developed through the project with interesting potentialities for decision support system tools. This framework as well as the simulated variables have served in the sister projects DCAP USQ 6 ('Enhanced multi-peril crop insurance'), DCAP USQ 14 ('Crop production modelling under climate change and regional adaptation'), and DCAP USQ 15 ('Value of seasonal climate forecasts').

Keywordsdrought monitoring
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300205. Agricultural production systems simulation
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
Public Notes

Unpublished USQ report.

Byline AffiliationsInternational Centre for Applied Climate Science
International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
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Kouadio, Louis, Stone, Roger, Tixier, Philippe, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Marcussen, Torben. 2015. "Robusta coffee model: an integrated model for coffee production at a regional scale." Tropical Agriculture Conference 2015: Meeting the Productivity Challenge in the Tropics (TropAg2015). Brisbane, Australia 16 - 18 Nov 2015
Exploring the potential impacts of climate variability on spring wheat yield with the APSIM decision support tool
Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Potgieter, Andries, McLean, Greg and Hill, Harvey. 2015. "Exploring the potential impacts of climate variability on spring wheat yield with the APSIM decision support tool." Agricultural Sciences. 6 (7), pp. 686-698. https://doi.org/10.4236/as.2015.67066
Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change
Williams, Allyson, White, Neil, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cockfield, Geoff, Power, Brendan and Kouadio, Louis. 2015. "Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 129 (1-2), pp. 183-196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1305-y
Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape
Chipanshi, Aston, Zhang, Yinsuo, Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Davidson, Andrew, Hill, Harvey, Warren, Richard, Qian, Budong, Daneshfar, Bahram, Bedard, Frederic and Reichert, Gordon. 2015. "Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 206, pp. 137-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.03.007
A comparison between visual estimates and image analysis measurements to determine Septoria leaf blotch severity in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, A. L., Mackels, C., Tychon, B., Delfosse, P. and Bock, C. H.. 2015. "A comparison between visual estimates and image analysis measurements to determine Septoria leaf blotch severity in winter wheat." Plant Pathology. 64 (2), pp. 355-364. https://doi.org/10.1111/ppa.12252
Building capacity for assessing spatial-based sustainability metrics in agriculture
Kouadio, Louis and Newlands, Nathaniel K.. 2015. "Building capacity for assessing spatial-based sustainability metrics in agriculture." Decision Analytics. 2 (2). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40165-015-0011-9
Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Beyer, Marco, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Tychon, Bernard, Maraite, Henri, Bock, Clive H. and Delfosse, Philippe. 2015. "Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." Field Crops Research. 172, pp. 32-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.11.012
Virtual discussions to support climate risk decision making on farms
Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Farley, Helen S., Cliffe, Neil, Stone, Roger C., Ostini, Jenny, Doyle, Joanne, Martin, Neil, Loch, Adam, Maraseni, Tek, Marcussen, Torben and Lindesay, Janette. 2015. "Virtual discussions to support climate risk decision making on farms." Journal of Economic and Social Policy. 17 (2).
Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments
Bock, C. H., El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L. A., Mackels, C., Chiang, K.-S. and Delfosse, P.. 2015. "Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments." Plant Disease. 99 (8), pp. 1104-1112. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-09-14-0925-RE
Virtual world technologies to enhance climate risk management on Australian sugar cane farms
Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger, Cliffe, Neil, Farley, Helen, Ostini, Jenny, Doyle, Joanne, Martin, Neil, Maraseni, Tek, Marcussen, Torben, Loch, Adam and Lindesay, Janette. 2014. "Virtual world technologies to enhance climate risk management on Australian sugar cane farms." Climate Adaptation (NCCARF 2014): Future Challenges. Gold Coast, Australia 30 Sep - 02 Oct 2014 Gold Coast, Australia.
Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale
Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel K., Davidson, Andrew, Zhang, Yinsuo and Chipanshi, Aston. 2014. "Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale." Remote Sensing. 6 (10), pp. 10193-10214. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs61010193
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Giraud, Frederic, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4809-4818. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-014-2557-9
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4797-4808. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-013-2463-6
An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty
Newlands, Nathaniel K., Zamar, David S., Kouadio, Louis A., Zhang, Yinsuo, Chipanshi, Aston, Potgieter, Andries, Toure, Souleymane and Hill, Harvey S. J.. 2014. "An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty." Frontiers in Environmental Science. 2, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00017
The development of virtual world tools to enhance learning and real world decision making in the Australian sugar farming industry
Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Farley, Helen, Cliffe, Neil, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger, Doyle, Joanne, Martin, Neil, Ostini, Jenny, Maraseni, Tek, Marcussen, Torben, Loch, Adam and Lindesay, Janette. 2014. "The development of virtual world tools to enhance learning and real world decision making in the Australian sugar farming industry." International Journal of Advanced Corporate Learning. 7 (3), pp. 17-23. https://doi.org/10.3991/ijac.v7i3.4002
A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing
Bock, Clive, El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Chiang, Kuo-Szu and Delfosse, Philippe. 2014. "A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing." Phytopathology: International Journal of the American Phytopathological Society. 104 (11), pp. 15-16.
Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates
Kouadio, Louis, Djaby, Bakary, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1203-1213.
Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]
Kouadio, Amani Louis, Djaby, Bakary, Duveiller, Gregory, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]." Biotechnology, Agronomy, Society and Environment. 16 (2), pp. 179-191.
Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe, Giraud, Frederic, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Maraite, Henri and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1386-1399.
Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system
Djaby, Bakary, de Wit, Allard, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2013. "Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system." Sustainable Agriculture Research. 2 (4), pp. 12-29. https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n4p12
Using a virtual world to enable real world decision making
Reardon-Smith, Kate, Farley, Helen, Stone, Roger, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cliffe, Neil, Doyle, Joanne, Martin, Neil, Maraseni, Tek, Marcussen, Torben, Lindesay, Janette, Loch, Adam and Kealley, Matt. 2013. "Using a virtual world to enable real world decision making." Lamb, David (ed.) 1st Digital Rural Futures Conference: Smart Farms - Smart Regions (DRF 2013). Armidale, Australia 26 - 28 Jun 2013 Armidale, Australia.
Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Tychon, Bernard, Delfosse, Philippe and Bock, Clive H.. 2014. "Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat." 2014 APS-CPS Joint Meeting. Minneapolis, United States of America 09 - 13 Aug 2014 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-104-11-S3.1
The Queensland cloud seeding research program
Tessendorf, Sarah A., Bruintjes, Roelof T., Weeks, Courtney, Wilson, James W., Knight, Charles A., Roberts, Rita D., Peter, Justin R., Collis, Scott, Buseck, Peter R., Freney, Evelyn, Dixon, Michael, Pocernich, Matthew, Ikeda, Kyoko, Axisa, Duncan, Nelson, Eric, May, Peter T., Richter, Harald, Piketh, Stuart, Burger, Roelof P., ..., McRae, David. 2012. "The Queensland cloud seeding research program ." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 93 (1), pp. 75-90. https://doi.org/10.1175/Bams-d-11-00060.1
Application of seasonal prediction on sugar cane
Stone, Roger C., Everingham, Yvette and Marcussen, Torben. 2012. "Application of seasonal prediction on sugar cane." Day, Keith A. (ed.) 6th Annual Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Workshop (CAWCR 2012): Understanding and Prediction of Monsoon Weather and Climate. Melbourne, Australia 12 - 15 Nov 2012 Melbourne, Australia.
Supporting decision-making in the sugar industry with integrated seasonal climate forecasting
Stone, Roger C., Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Marcussen, Torben, Cliffe, Neil, Brunton, Lynda and Everingham, Yvette. 2012. "Supporting decision-making in the sugar industry with integrated seasonal climate forecasting." Global Framework for Climate Services User Conference (GFCS 2012): A Dialogue for Climate Services Users and Providers: Towards Implementation of the GFCS. Geneva, Switzerland 26 - 27 Oct 2012 Geneva, Switzerland.
Climate variability analysis for Diuron application
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger, Marcussen, Torben, Pudmenzky, Christa and Maraseni, Tek. 2012. Climate variability analysis for Diuron application. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Supporting Decision-Making in the Sugar Cane Industry with Integrated Seasonal Climate Forecasting
Stone, Roger, Everingham, Yvette, Pudmenzky, Christa and Marcussen, Torben. 2013. "Supporting Decision-Making in the Sugar Cane Industry with Integrated Seasonal Climate Forecasting." Climate Adaptation 2013 (NCCARF 2013). Sydney, Australia 25 - 27 Jun 2013 Australia.
Impacts and adaptation response of infrastructure and communities to heatwaves: the southern Australian experience of 2009
Best, Peter, Marcussen, Torben, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger C., Reeves, Jim, Foelz, Colleen, Grace, Peter, Loughnan, Margaret, McEvoy, Darryn, Ahmed, Ifte, Mullett, Jane, Haynes, Katharine, Bird, Deanne, Coates, Lucinda and Ling, Megan. 2010. Impacts and adaptation response of infrastructure and communities to heatwaves: the southern Australian experience of 2009. Gold Coast, Australia. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF).
An application of demerit point approach in selection of most suitable climate models to characterise the potential climate change impact on regional Australia
Stone, Roger C., Marcussen, Torben and Mushtaq, Shahbaz. 2010. "An application of demerit point approach in selection of most suitable climate models to characterise the potential climate change impact on regional Australia." American Geophysical Union 2010 Fall Meeting. San Francisco, United States 13 - 17 Dec 2010 Washington, DC United States.
Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index
Stone, Roger C., Hammer, Graeme L. and Marcussen, Torben. 1996. "Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index." Nature. 384 (6606), pp. 252-255. https://doi.org/10.1038/384252a0