Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change

Article

Cobon, David H., Williams, Allyson A. J., Power, Brendan, McRae, David and Davis, Peter. 2016. "Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 138 (1-2), pp. 173-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1732-z
Article Title

Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture
to climate change

ERA Journal ID1965
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsCobon, David H. (Author), Williams, Allyson A. J. (Author), Power, Brendan (Author), McRae, David (Author) and Davis, Peter (Author)
Journal TitleClimatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change
Journal Citation138 (1-2), pp. 173-189
Number of Pages17
Year2016
PublisherSpringer
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN0165-0009
1573-1480
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1732-z
Abstract

A risk management approach to assessing climate change impacts was completed for grazing, wheat and sorghum production systems in eastern Australia. This ‘risk matrix’ approach for wheat and sorghum was compared to results from simulation modelling of the impacts of projected climate change from general circulation models (GCM’s). In the modelling we used five GCM’s, the A1FI emissions scenario and a baseline climate (historical, 1960–2010); both the ‘risk matrix’ approach and modelling used a time horizon of 2030. While some people find the risk matrix process a highly effective tool for assessing climate change impacts others question its utility without the support of quantitative data such as that produced from integrated climate and agricultural models. Here we show the impacts of climate change on wheat and sorghum production systems using both approaches, and also show the risk, adaptation responses and vulnerability of all three production systems using the ‘risk matrix’ approach. Advantages and disadvantages of each approach are identified. The independent assessment showed the two approaches produced similar results. The ‘risk matrix’ showed little overall impact, risk or vulnerability for the central slopes from climate change using the adaptation strategies currently available for yield, protein levels, pests and disease, weeds and soil condition. The simulation modelling showed no statistically significant impact on yield, drainage, erosion and runoff, although more high-end extremes were evident. The risks to 2030 from anthropogenic climate change can largely be managed by continuing to implement best management practice and managing the risks already posed by climate variability. The ‘risk matrix’ approach was a useful tool under these circumstances to assess the impacts, adaptation, risk and vulnerability of climate change in the absence of local modelling information, and demonstrates the power of expert opinion to help understand and respond to climate change at the regional scale.

Keywordsagriculture; climate models; risk assessment; risk management; risk perception; adaptation strategies; anthropogenic climate changes; best management practices; climate change impact; climate variability; emissions scenarios; general circulation model; independent assessment
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370201. Climate change processes
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Byline AffiliationsInternational Centre for Applied Climate Science
International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Queensland
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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