Native pastures and beef cattle show a spatially variable response to a changing climate in Queensland, Australia

Article


Cobon, David H., Stone, Grant, Carter, John, McKeon, Greg, Zhang, Baisen and Heidemann, Hanna. 2020. "Native pastures and beef cattle show a spatially variable response to a changing climate in Queensland, Australia." European Journal of Agronomy. 114 (126002), pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2020.126002
Article Title

Native pastures and beef cattle show a spatially variable response to a changing climate in Queensland, Australia

ERA Journal ID5307
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsCobon, David H. (Author), Stone, Grant (Author), Carter, John (Author), McKeon, Greg (Author), Zhang, Baisen (Author) and Heidemann, Hanna (Author)
Journal TitleEuropean Journal of Agronomy
Journal Citation114 (126002), pp. 1-11
Number of Pages11
Year2020
PublisherElsevier
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN1161-0301
1873-7331
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2020.126002
Web Address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1161030120300095
Abstract

Queensland's rangelands are an important source for Australia's pastoral food production. However, they are subject to significant climate variability and will be under increasing pressure as the climate changes, potentially leading to loss of productivity. Pasture growth fluctuates greatly due to rainfall variability, which unfortunately is the climate variable with the largest uncertainties in future projections for northern and eastern Australia. This sensitivity study examines the effect of climate change and its interaction with soil fertility and trees on pasture and livestock production in Queensland. Nine climate change sensitivities were tested in various combinations; an increase in air temperatures by a median projected value of +3 °C, rainfall changes of -20 %, -10 % and +10 % and an increase of carbon dioxide concentrations to 700 ppm. The GRASP model was used to assess the responses of pasture growth, pasture quality and cattle liveweight change per head. The most arid areas in western and south-western Queensland were the most sensitive to changes in rainfall. In contrast, the tropical north was the most resilient region. Southern and south-eastern Queensland benefitted from higher air temperatures producing greater pasture growth, quality and liveweight gain per head by extending the growing season and reducing frost during the winter months. The presence of trees competing for water and nitrogen increased the sensitivity of pasture to climate change, especially at higher carbon dioxide levels and lower rainfall. Increased carbon dioxide enhanced pasture growth and mitigated rainfall reductions by improving the water use efficiency of the plants. Thus, a warmer climate may create new opportunities in the south and south-east, but a warmer and drier climate in the western regions of Queensland is likely to reduce pasture and livestock production.

Keywordsclimate variability, CO2, forage production, liveweight gain, rangelands, vulnerability
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020380101. Agricultural economics
410406. Natural resource management
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Byline AffiliationsCentre for Applied Climate Sciences
Department of Environment and Science, Queensland
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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