Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia

Article

Cobon, David H. and Toombs, Nathan R.. 2013. "Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 35 (4), pp. 373-383. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ12105
Article Title

Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia

ERA Journal ID3312
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsCobon, David H. (Author) and Toombs, Nathan R. (Author)
Journal TitleThe Rangeland Journal
Journal Citation35 (4), pp. 373-383
Number of Pages11
Year2013
PublisherCSIRO Publishing
Place of PublicationMelbourne, Australia
ISSN1036-9872
1834-7541
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ12105
Abstract

Under the extensive grazing conditions experienced in Australia, pastoralists would benefit from a long leadtime seasonal forecast issued for the austral warm season (November–March). Currently operational forecasts are issued publicly for rolling 3-month periods at lead-times of 0 or 1 month, usually without an indication of forecast quality. The short lag between the predictor and predictand limits use of forecasts because pastoralists operating large properties have insufficient time to implement key management decisions. The ability to forecast rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase system was examined at 0–5-month lead-times for Australian rainfall. The SOI phase system provided a shift of adequate magnitude in the rainfall probabilities (–40 to +30%) and forecast quality for the 5-month austral warm season at lead-times >0 months. When data used to build the forecast system were used in verification, >20% of locations had a significant linear error in probability space (LEPS) and Kruskal–Wallis (KW) test for lead-times of 0–2 months. The majority of locations showing forecast quality were in northern Australia (north of 25 degrees S), predominately
in north-eastern Australia (north of 25 degrees S, east of 140 degrees E). Pastoralists in these areas can now apply key management decisions with more confidence up to 2 months before the November–March period. Useful lead-times of ≥3 months were not found.

KeywordsEl Nino Southern Oscillation; forecast quality; hindcasting; inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation; pastoralists
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370108. Meteorology
300208. Farm management, rural management and agribusiness
370202. Climatology
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Byline AffiliationsDepartment of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts, Queensland
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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