Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia
Article
Article Title | Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia |
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ERA Journal ID | 3312 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Cobon, David H. (Author) and Toombs, Nathan R. (Author) |
Journal Title | The Rangeland Journal |
Journal Citation | 35 (4), pp. 373-383 |
Number of Pages | 11 |
Year | 2013 |
Publisher | CSIRO Publishing |
Place of Publication | Melbourne, Australia |
ISSN | 1036-9872 |
1834-7541 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ12105 |
Abstract | Under the extensive grazing conditions experienced in Australia, pastoralists would benefit from a long leadtime seasonal forecast issued for the austral warm season (November–March). Currently operational forecasts are issued publicly for rolling 3-month periods at lead-times of 0 or 1 month, usually without an indication of forecast quality. The short lag between the predictor and predictand limits use of forecasts because pastoralists operating large properties have insufficient time to implement key management decisions. The ability to forecast rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) phase system was examined at 0–5-month lead-times for Australian rainfall. The SOI phase system provided a shift of adequate magnitude in the rainfall probabilities (–40 to +30%) and forecast quality for the 5-month austral warm season at lead-times >0 months. When data used to build the forecast system were used in verification, >20% of locations had a significant linear error in probability space (LEPS) and Kruskal–Wallis (KW) test for lead-times of 0–2 months. The majority of locations showing forecast quality were in northern Australia (north of 25 degrees S), predominately |
Keywords | El Nino Southern Oscillation; forecast quality; hindcasting; inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation; pastoralists |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370108. Meteorology |
300208. Farm management, rural management and agribusiness | |
370202. Climatology | |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts, Queensland |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q2vwq/forecasting-rainfall-based-on-the-southern-oscillation-index-phases-at-longer-lead-times-in-australia
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