Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture: northern grains case study

Technical report


Darbyshire, R., Crean, J., Kouadio, L., Cashen, M., Anwar, M. and Cobon, D.. 2018. Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture: northern grains case study. Nnew South Wales, Australia. NSW Department of Primary Industries.
Title

Valuing seasonal climate forecasts in Australian agriculture: northern grains case study

Report TypeTechnical report
AuthorsDarbyshire, R. (Author), Crean, J. (Author), Kouadio, L. (Author), Cashen, M. (Author), Anwar, M. (Author) and Cobon, D. (Author)
Institution of OriginNew South Wales Department of Primary Industries
Number of Pages41
Year2018
PublisherNSW Department of Primary Industries
Place of PublicationNnew South Wales, Australia
Web Address (URL)https://www.dpi.nsw.gov.au/climate-and-emergencies/climate-and-weather/research/value-of-forecasts/grain-growing-northern
Abstract

Objective of this report
This report focuses on the value of SCFs to the management of grains farms in the Grains Research and Development Corporation (GRDC) northern panel region. The key decision identified by industry was which summer crop to sow. Four potential options were considered, sorghum, cotton, mungbean and summer fallow. The timing of this decision was early October for a rainfall forecast from October to December. Rainfall over this period can have an important influence on crop production. A skilful seasonal climate forecast is potentially valuable if it helps farmers make a different summer cropping decision compared with the decision made based on historical average rainfall.

Key findings
A general finding was that forecasts that led to decisions that run contrary to the direction of conditions provided the most value. For example, a wet forecast under low initial soil moisture and high relative sorghum price was valuable as it triggered a change from mungbean to sorghum. This finding has some parallels with observations of Hirshleifer and Riley (1992) that the ‘news-worthiness’ of information is a critical determinant of its value.
It is important to recognise that the decision investigated here represents only part of the risk grain growers manage. The case study necessarily only represented one site and one production system and other sites, systems and decisions may find different results. However, it is likely that the general findings around the circumstances for which forecast value was found will provide insights for the use and value of SCFs for grain growers more widely.

Keywordsseasonal climate forecasts; Australian agriculture; Australia; agriculture
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020380101. Agricultural economics
300205. Agricultural production systems simulation
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling
370202. Climatology
Public Notes

© State of New South Wales through the Department of Industry, Skills and Regional Development, 2018. You may copy, distribute and otherwise freely deal with this publication for any purpose, provided that you attribute the NSW Department of Primary Industries as the owner.

Byline AffiliationsDepartment of Primary Industries, New South Wales
International Centre for Applied Climate Science
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Kouadio, Louis, Marcussen, Torben and McRae, David. 2017. Developing products for use in drought monitoring: improved crop yield and production forecasts (multi-crop models approach). Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
Crop production modelling under climate change and regional adaptation
Kouadio, Louis, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Marcussen, Torben and Cockfield, Geoff. 2017. Crop production modelling under climate change and regional adaptation. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.
An investigation of farm-scale adaptation options for cotton production in the face of future climate change and water allocation policies in southern Queensland, Australia
Williams, Allyson, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Kouadio, Louis, Power, Brendan, Marcussen, Torben, McRae, David and Cockfield, Geoff. 2018. "An investigation of farm-scale adaptation options for cotton production in the face of future climate change and water allocation policies in southern Queensland, Australia." Agricultural Water Management. 196, pp. 124-132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2017.10.026
History of drought management in Australia
Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Williams, Allyson, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, McRae, David and Kouadio, Louis. 2017. "History of drought management in Australia." Eslamien, Saied and Eslamien, Faezeh (ed.) Handbook of Drought and Water Scarcity: Management of Drought and Water Scarcity. United States. CRC Press. pp. 423-448
Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: summary report
Mushtaq, Shabaz, Marcussen, Torben, Kath, Jarrod, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Kouadio, Louis, Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar, Stone, Roger, Roberts, Julian, Mehmet, Russell, Pilling, Debbie and Henry, Ross. 2018. Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: summary report. University of Southern Queensland.
Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: final report
Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Marcussen, Torben, Kath, Jarrod, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Kouadio, Louis, Krishnamurti, Chandrasekhar, Stone, Roger, Roberts, Julian, Mehmet, Russell, Pilling, Debbie and Henry, Ross. 2017. Drought climate adaptation program: producing enhanced agricultural crop insurance systems: final report. University of Southern Queensland.
Artificial intelligence approach for the prediction of Robusta coffee yield using soil fertility properties
Kouadio, Louis, Deo, Ravinesh C., Byrareddy, Vivekananda, Adamowski, Jan F., Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Nguyen, Van Phuong. 2018. "Artificial intelligence approach for the prediction of Robusta coffee yield using soil fertility properties." Computers and Electronics in Agriculture. 155, pp. 324-338. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2018.10.014
Improving fungal disease forecasts in winter wheat: a critical role of intra-day variations of meteorological conditions in the development of Septoria leaf blotch
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Mustapha, Junk, Jurgen, Bock, Clive, Diouf, Abdoul Aziz and Delfosse, Philippe. 2017. "Improving fungal disease forecasts in winter wheat: a critical role of intra-day variations of meteorological conditions in the development of Septoria leaf blotch." Field Crops Research. 213, pp. 12-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2017.07.012
Medical geology in the framework of the sustainable development goals
Bundschuh, Jochen, Maity, Jyoti Prakash, Mushtaq, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Vithange, Meththika, Seneweera, Saman, Schneider, Jerusa, Bhattacharya, Prosun, Khan, Nasreen Islam, Hamawand, Ihsan, Guilherme, Luiz R. G., Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Parvez, Faruque, Morales-Simfors, Nury, Ghaze, Sara, Pudmenzky, Christa, Kouadio, Louis and Chen, Chien-Yen. 2017. "Medical geology in the framework of the sustainable development goals." Science of the Total Environment. 581-582, pp. 87-104. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.11.208
Spatial variation in springtime temperature index values during ENSO and IOD events shows non-equivalent phase response for viticultural regions in Australia
Jarvis, C., Darbyshire, R., Goodwin, I., Barlow, E. and Eckard, R.. 2018. "Spatial variation in springtime temperature index values during ENSO and IOD events shows non-equivalent phase response for viticultural regions in Australia." Agriculture and Forest Meteorology. 250-251, pp. 217-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.12.261
Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on winegrape maturity in Australia
Jarvis, C., Darbyshire, R., Eckard, R., Goodwin, I. and Barlow, E.. 2018. "Influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole on winegrape maturity in Australia ." Agriculture and Forest Meteorology. 248, pp. 502-510. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2017.10.021
Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems of Australia and Brazil
Ghahramani, Afshin, Berndt, Alexandre, Cobon, David, Banhazi, Thomas and Ji, Boyu. 2017. "Climate change impact and adaptation in agricultural systems of Australia and Brazil." Parapinski, Marina, Carbonare, Maryon Strack Dalle and Schmidt, Patrick (ed.) 54th Annual Meeting of the Brazilian Society of Animal Science: A new View of Animal Science: Challenges and Perspectives. Foz do Iguacu, Brasil 24 - 28 Jun 2017 Foz do Iguacu, Brazil.
Relationship between viticultural climatic indices and grape maturity in Australia
Jarvis, C., Barlow, E., Darbyshire, R., Eckard, R. and Goodwin, I.. 2017. "Relationship between viticultural climatic indices and grape maturity in Australia." International Journal of Biometeorology: the description, causes, and implications of climatic change. 61 (10), pp. 1849-1862. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-017-1370-9
Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cobon, David, Kodur, Shreevatsa and Stone, Roger. 2017. "Investigating the value of seasonal climate forecast for beef grazing enterprises: Charters Towers case study." 19th Biennial Conference of the Australian Rangeland Society. Port Augusta, Australia 25 - 28 Sep 2017 Australia.
A threshold-based weather model for predicting stripe rust infection in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Bock, Clive H., El Jarroudi, Mustapha, Junk, Jürgen, Pasquali, Matias, Maraite, Henri and Delfosse, Philippe. 2017. "A threshold-based weather model for predicting stripe rust infection in winter wheat." Plant Disease: an international journal of applied plant pathology. 101 (5), pp. 693-703. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-12-16-1766-RE
Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change
Cobon, David H., Williams, Allyson A. J., Power, Brendan, McRae, David and Davis, Peter. 2016. "Risk matrix approach useful in adapting agriculture to climate change." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 138 (1-2), pp. 173-189. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-016-1732-z
Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea
Cobon, David H., Ewai, Maureen, Inape, Kasis and Bourke, R. Michael. 2016. "Food shortages are associated with droughts, floods, frosts and ENSO in Papua New Guinea." Agricultural Systems. 145, pp. 150-164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.02.012
Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat
Junk, J., Kouadio, L., Delfosse, P. and El Jarroudi, M.. 2016. "Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 135 (3-4), pp. 439-451. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1587-8
Integrating the impact of wheat fungal diseases in the Belgian crop yield forecasting system (B-CYFS)
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Bertrand, Martin, Curnel, Yannick, Giraud, Frederic, Delfosse, Philippe, Hoffmann, Lucien, Oger, Robert and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Integrating the impact of wheat fungal diseases in the Belgian crop yield forecasting system (B-CYFS)." European Journal of Agronomy. 40, pp. 8-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2012.02.003
Estimating regional wheat yield from the shape of decreasing curves of green area index temporal profiles retrieved from MODIS data
Kouadio, Louis, Duveiller, Gregory, Djaby, Bakary, El Jarroudi, Moussa, Defourny, Pierre and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Estimating regional wheat yield from the shape of decreasing curves of green area index temporal profiles retrieved from MODIS data." International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation. 18 (1), pp. 111-118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2012.01.009
Do single, double or triple fungicide sprays differentially affect the grain quality in winter wheat?
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Junk, Jurgen, Beyer, Marco, Pasquali, Matias, Bock, Clive and Delfosse, Philippe. 2015. "Do single, double or triple fungicide sprays differentially affect the grain quality in winter wheat?" Field Crops Research. 183, pp. 257-266. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2015.08.012
Robusta coffee model: an integrated model for coffee production at a regional scale
Kouadio, Louis, Stone, Roger, Tixier, Philippe, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Marcussen, Torben. 2015. "Robusta coffee model: an integrated model for coffee production at a regional scale." Tropical Agriculture Conference 2015: Meeting the Productivity Challenge in the Tropics (TropAg2015). Brisbane, Australia 16 - 18 Nov 2015
Exploring the potential impacts of climate variability on spring wheat yield with the APSIM decision support tool
Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Potgieter, Andries, McLean, Greg and Hill, Harvey. 2015. "Exploring the potential impacts of climate variability on spring wheat yield with the APSIM decision support tool." Agricultural Sciences. 6 (7), pp. 686-698. https://doi.org/10.4236/as.2015.67066
Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change
Williams, Allyson, White, Neil, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Cockfield, Geoff, Power, Brendan and Kouadio, Louis. 2015. "Quantifying the response of cotton production in eastern Australia to climate change." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 129 (1-2), pp. 183-196. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1305-y
Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape
Chipanshi, Aston, Zhang, Yinsuo, Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel, Davidson, Andrew, Hill, Harvey, Warren, Richard, Qian, Budong, Daneshfar, Bahram, Bedard, Frederic and Reichert, Gordon. 2015. "Evaluation of the integrated Canadian crop yield forecaster (ICCYF) model for in-season prediction of crop yield across the Canadian agricultural landscape." Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. 206, pp. 137-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2015.03.007
A comparison between visual estimates and image analysis measurements to determine Septoria leaf blotch severity in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, A. L., Mackels, C., Tychon, B., Delfosse, P. and Bock, C. H.. 2015. "A comparison between visual estimates and image analysis measurements to determine Septoria leaf blotch severity in winter wheat." Plant Pathology. 64 (2), pp. 355-364. https://doi.org/10.1111/ppa.12252
Building capacity for assessing spatial-based sustainability metrics in agriculture
Kouadio, Louis and Newlands, Nathaniel K.. 2015. "Building capacity for assessing spatial-based sustainability metrics in agriculture." Decision Analytics. 2 (2). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40165-015-0011-9
Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Beyer, Marco, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Tychon, Bernard, Maraite, Henri, Bock, Clive H. and Delfosse, Philippe. 2015. "Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." Field Crops Research. 172, pp. 32-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.11.012
Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments
Bock, C. H., El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L. A., Mackels, C., Chiang, K.-S. and Delfosse, P.. 2015. "Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments." Plant Disease. 99 (8), pp. 1104-1112. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-09-14-0925-RE
Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale
Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel K., Davidson, Andrew, Zhang, Yinsuo and Chipanshi, Aston. 2014. "Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale." Remote Sensing. 6 (10), pp. 10193-10214. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs61010193
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Giraud, Frederic, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4809-4818. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-014-2557-9
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4797-4808. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-013-2463-6
El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. II. daily forecasts could help summer planting decisions in Zimbabwe
Cobon, D. H., Unganai, L. S. and Clewett, J. F.. 2003. "El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. II. daily forecasts could help summer planting decisions in Zimbabwe." Allsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J. (ed.) 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium . Durban, South Africa 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2003 Durban, South Africa.
El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought
Cobon, D. H., Unganai, L. S. and Clewett, J. F.. 2003. "El Nino southern oscillation based rainfall forecasts in southern Africa. 1. seasonal forecasts can help communal farmers manage drought." Allsopp, N., Palmer, A. R., Milton, S. J., Kirkman, K. P., Kerley, G. I. H., Hurt, C. R. and Brown, C. J. (ed.) 7th International Rangelands Congress 2003: Rangelands in the New Millennium . Durban, South Africa 26 Jul - 01 Aug 2003 Durban, South Africa.
Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues
McKeon, G. M., Stone, G. S., Syktus, J. I., Carter, J. O., Flood, N. R., Ahrens, D. G., Bruget, D. N., Chilcott, C. R., Cobon, D. H., Cowley, R. A., Crimp, S. J., Fraser, G. W., Howden, S. M., Johnston, P. W., Ryan, J. G., Stokes, C. J. and Day, K. A.. 2009. "Climate change impacts on Australia's rangeland livestock carrying capacity: a review of issues." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08068
Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry
Keogh, D. U., Watson, I. W., Bell, K. L., Cobon, D. H. and Dutta, S. C.. 2005. "Climate information needs of Gascoyne-Murchison pastoralists: a representative study of the Western Australian grazing industry." Animal Production Science. 45 (12), pp. 1613-1625. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA04275
An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty
Newlands, Nathaniel K., Zamar, David S., Kouadio, Louis A., Zhang, Yinsuo, Chipanshi, Aston, Potgieter, Andries, Toure, Souleymane and Hill, Harvey S. J.. 2014. "An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty." Frontiers in Environmental Science. 2, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00017
Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland
Keogh, D. U., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Cobon, D, H.. 2004. "Formative evaluation to benchmark and improve climate-based decision support for graziers in western Queensland." Australian Journal of Experimental Agriculture. 44, pp. 233-246. https://doi.org/10.1071/EA01204
The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia
Cobon, David H., Stone, Grant S., Carter, John O., Scanlan, Joe C., Toombs, Nathan R., Zhang, Xike, Willcocks, Jacqui and McKeon, Greg M.. 2009. "The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 31 (1), pp. 31-49. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ08069
Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia
Cobon, David H. and Toombs, Nathan R.. 2013. "Forecasting rainfall based on the Southern Oscillation Index phases at longer lead-times in Australia." The Rangeland Journal. 35 (4), pp. 373-383. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ12105
Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland
Cobon, D. H., Bell, K. L., Park, J. N. and Keogh, D. U.. 2008. "Summative evaluation of climate application activities with pastoralists in western Queensland." The Rangeland Journal. 30 (3), pp. 361-374. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ06030
A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing
Bock, Clive, El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Chiang, Kuo-Szu and Delfosse, Philippe. 2014. "A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing." Phytopathology: International Journal of the American Phytopathological Society. 104 (11), pp. 15-16.
Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates
Kouadio, Louis, Djaby, Bakary, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1203-1213.
Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]
Kouadio, Amani Louis, Djaby, Bakary, Duveiller, Gregory, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]." Biotechnology, Agronomy, Society and Environment. 16 (2), pp. 179-191.
Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe, Giraud, Frederic, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Maraite, Henri and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1386-1399.
Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system
Djaby, Bakary, de Wit, Allard, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2013. "Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system." Sustainable Agriculture Research. 2 (4), pp. 12-29. https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n4p12
Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Tychon, Bernard, Delfosse, Philippe and Bock, Clive H.. 2014. "Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat." 2014 APS-CPS Joint Meeting. Minneapolis, United States of America 09 - 13 Aug 2014 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-104-11-S3.1
Quality and potential utility of ENSO-based forecasts of spring rainfall and wheat yield in south-eastern Australia
Anwar, M. R., Rodriguez, D., Liu, D. L., Power, S. and O'Leary, G. J.. 2008. "Quality and potential utility of ENSO-based forecasts of spring rainfall and wheat yield in south-eastern Australia." Australian Journal of Agricultural Research. 59 (2), pp. 112-126. https://doi.org/10.1071/AR07061