Robusta coffee model: an integrated model for coffee production at a regional scale
Poster
Paper/Presentation Title | Robusta coffee model: an integrated model for coffee production at a regional scale |
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Presentation Type | Poster |
Authors | Kouadio, Louis (Author), Stone, Roger (Author), Tixier, Philippe (Author), Mushtaq, Shahbaz (Author) and Marcussen, Torben (Author) |
Year | 2015 |
Conference/Event | Tropical Agriculture Conference 2015: Meeting the Productivity Challenge in the Tropics (TropAg2015) |
Event Details | Tropical Agriculture Conference 2015: Meeting the Productivity Challenge in the Tropics (TropAg2015) Event Date 16 to end of 18 Nov 2015 Event Location Brisbane, Australia |
Abstract | The Vietnamese coffee industry is the world's second largest producer of coffee beans. The industry is significantly influenced by seasonal climate variations, water shortages, and extreme climatic events, especially drought. Given a 15% expected increase in global coffee demand and the potential adverse effects of projected climate variability, the success of the Vietnamese coffee industry depends heavily on minimising the risks along the supply chain and capitalising on potential opportunities. Advances in seasonal climate forecasts, when integrated with crop production systems, can greatly improve industry preparedness and productivity. We present the progress on the development of a ‘Robusta variety' coffee production model, an integrated forecasting system, which aims to provide coffee production estimate based on simulating coffee growth biophysical processes and seasonal climate forecast systems. The model uses daily values (such as daily minimum and maximum temperatures, solar radiation, and rainfall) and simulates the growth of the coffee tree (e.g. biomass) and the production of green beans. The initial simulated results are encouraging, however, while the model successfully picks up the climatic variability, the precision is not yet outstanding. Further refinement and improvement of the parametrization are ongoing to provide more reliable and comprehensive outputs at different lead times. While additional work is yet to be done the preliminary results look promising and show that seasonal climate and crop forecasting offers substantial benefits to coffee growers and industry through increased profitability, better logistical arrangements and preparedness for extreme events such as floods and droughts. |
Keywords | Robusta coffee model; Vietnam; climate; seasonal forecast; simulated yields |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 300205. Agricultural production systems simulation |
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling | |
370202. Climatology | |
Public Notes | Abstract only published in Proceedings. |
Byline Affiliations | International Centre for Applied Climate Science |
French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), France | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q3327/robusta-coffee-model-an-integrated-model-for-coffee-production-at-a-regional-scale
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TropAg2015-Abstract-Book_LouisKouadio-2015.pdf | ||
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