Drought and climate forecasting in an Australian context

Edited book (chapter)

Stone, Roger C., Fawcett, Robert, Everingham, Yvette L. and Pinington, Greg. 2003. "Drought and climate forecasting in an Australian context." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) Science for drought: proceedings of the National Drought Forum. Brisbane, Australia. Queensland Department of Primary Industries. pp. 41-48
Chapter Title

Drought and climate forecasting in an Australian context

Book Chapter CategoryEdited book (chapter)
Book TitleScience for drought: proceedings of the National Drought Forum
AuthorsStone, Roger C. (Author), Fawcett, Robert (Author), Everingham, Yvette L. (Author) and Pinington, Greg (Author)
EditorsStone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian
Page Range41-48
Number of Pages8
Year2003
PublisherQueensland Department of Primary Industries
Place of PublicationBrisbane, Australia
ISBN0734502435
Abstract

Seasonal Climate Outlooks have been issued in
Australia since the late 1980s. The Commonwealth
Bureau of Meteorology, together with the
Queensland Department of Primary Industries, and
the Queensland Department of Natural Resources
and Mines (under the Queensland Centre for
Climate Applications (QCCA) project) have been
providing climate forecast output since the late
1980s and early 1990s, respectively. Publicly
available forecasts from both organisations
generally take the form of probabilities that total
seasonal (three-month) rainfall will be above the
relative climatological median, with the probability
of below median rainfall being immediately
derivable. A supplementary derived forecast output
from The Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology
and QCCA issued on subscription provides the
probability of seasonal rainfall falling into the
three terciles (obtained by splitting the distribution
into three equal categories by frequency).
Tercile probabilities are obtained by means of a
notional shifted distribution which is not normally
issued pUblicly. This notional shifted distribution
could, in principle, be broken down into finer levels
of discrimination (quartiles, quintiles, deciles) in
a way which is statistically consistent with the
larger category probabilities, with the calculation
of associated hindcast skill estimates giving some
insight into the advisability of such a procedure.
However, this type of output is not currently being
produced or available for users. Interestingly, tests
on historical data suggest rather more skill for
forecasting the outer terciles (loosely, the tails of
the distribution) than for the middle tercile. With
this point in mind, the Bureau's current seasonal
forecasting model does not show strong probability
shifts towards the middle tercile in its three forecast
variables.
We have recently applied the 'Binomial Test' as a
means of assessing the appropriateness of
provision of data in the lowest quartile and decile.
In this way we suggest use of the lowest tercile,
quartile, or decile in climate forecast output may
be useful for enhancing drought prediction.

Keywordsdrought forecasting; meteorology, agricultural policy; climatic changes; ecosystem management; droughts
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370202. Climatology
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Byline AffiliationsDepartment of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Queensland
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
James Cook University
Department of Primary Industries, Queensland
Journal TitleScience for Drought
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Stone, Roger C.. 2011. "Principles of short and medium term climate forecasting - what's driving our climate and how accurate have Northern Grains Region forecasts been in the last decade?" 2011 GRDC Advisor Update, Goondiwindi. Goondiwindi, Australia 02 - 03 Mar 2011 Canberra, Australia.
El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?
Pudmenzky, Christa, Stone, Roger and Butler, Harry. 2011. "El Nino-Southern oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide an insight into the future?" WCRP 2011: Climate Research in Service to Society. Denver, United States 24 - 28 Oct 2011 Geneva, Switzerland.
Climate outlook and review 2 June 2011
Stone, Roger. 2011. "Climate outlook and review 2 June 2011." Climate Outlook and Review.
The international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative
Allan, Rob, Brohan, Philip, Compo, Gilbert P., Stone, Roger, Luterbacher, Juerg and Bronnimann, Stefan. 2011. "The international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 92 (11), pp. 1421-1425. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3218.1
Editorial
Stone, Roger, Sivakumar, M. V. K. and Burt, Peter. 2006. "Editorial ." Meteorological Applications. 13 (S1), pp. 3-5. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482706002507
Positive feedbacks between the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the global El Nino-Southern Oscillation
White, Warren B., Chen, Shyh-Chin, Allan, Robert J. and Stone, Roger C.. 2002. "Positive feedbacks between the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the global El Nino-Southern Oscillation ." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 107 (10), pp. 3165-3177. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000581
Is there an Indian Ocean dipole and is it independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation?
Allan, Robert J., Chambers, Don, Drosdowsky, Wasyl, Hendon, Harry, Latif, Mojib, Nicholls, Neville, Smith, Ian, Stone, Roger C. and Tourre, Yves. 2001. "Is there an Indian Ocean dipole and is it independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation?" CLIVAR Exchanges. 6 (3), pp. 18-22.
Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: The new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations
Meinke, Holger and Stone, Roger C.. 2005. "Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: The new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 70 (1-2), pp. 221-253. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5948-6
Weather, climate and farmers: an overview
Stone, Roger C. and Meinke, Holger. 2006. "Weather, climate and farmers: an overview." Meteorological Applications. 13 (S1), pp. 7-20. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482706002519
Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew, Maia, Aline de H. N., White, Neil, Stone, Roger C. and Ribbe, Joachim. 2006. "Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts." Vera, Carolina (ed.) 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (8ICSHMO): Understanding and Predicting Climate and Water Resources, their Variability and Change in the Southern Hemisphere. Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 24 - 28 Apr 2006 Washington, DC. United States.
Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Maia, Aline de H. N., Wheeler, Matthew, Stone, Roger C., Ribbe, Joachim and White, Neil. 2006. "Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall." Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (9), p. L09704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025155
Submission to the House of Representatives Industry, Science and Innovation Committee Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia. Submission no. 10
Stone, Roger. 2009. "Submission to the House of Representatives Industry, Science and Innovation Committee Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia. Submission no. 10 ." Seasonal forecasting in Australia. Canberra, Australia. Commonwealth of Australia. pp. 1-8
Short and long term weather prospects: recent breakthroughs in the understanding of climate patterns and climate change and their impacts on crop yields
Stone, Roger. 2006. "Short and long term weather prospects: recent breakthroughs in the understanding of climate patterns and climate change and their impacts on crop yields." 1st CropLife Australia Perspectives Conference 2006. Sydney 28 Nov 2006 Canberra, Australia.
The value of an integrated approach to climate applications modelling
Stone, Roger C. and Meinke, Holger. 2006. "The value of an integrated approach to climate applications modelling." Hollis, A. J. and Kariko, A. P. (ed.) 18th Annual Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre Modelling Workshop. The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS): Challenges and Opportunities (BMRC 2006) . Melbourne, Australia 28 Nov - 01 Dec 2006 Melbourne, Australia.
Drought risks and vulnerability in rainfed agriculture: example of a case study in Australia
Stone, Roger C. and Potgieter, Andries. 2008. "Drought risks and vulnerability in rainfed agriculture: example of a case study in Australia." Options Mediterraneennes.
Impacts and adaptation response of infrastructure and communities to heatwaves: the southern Australian experience of 2009
Best, Peter, Marcussen, Torben, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger C., Reeves, Jim, Foelz, Colleen, Grace, Peter, Loughnan, Margaret, McEvoy, Darryn, Ahmed, Ifte, Mullett, Jane, Haynes, Katharine, Bird, Deanne, Coates, Lucinda and Ling, Megan. 2010. Impacts and adaptation response of infrastructure and communities to heatwaves: the southern Australian experience of 2009. Gold Coast, Australia. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF).
Climate outlook and review 5 April 2010
Stone, Roger C.. 2010. "Climate outlook and review 5 April 2010." Climate Outlook and Review.
An application of demerit point approach in selection of most suitable climate models to characterise the potential climate change impact on regional Australia
Stone, Roger C., Marcussen, Torben and Mushtaq, Shahbaz. 2010. "An application of demerit point approach in selection of most suitable climate models to characterise the potential climate change impact on regional Australia." American Geophysical Union 2010 Fall Meeting. San Francisco, United States 13 - 17 Dec 2010 Washington, DC United States.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide a key to the future?
Pudmenzky, C., Stone, R., Butler, H. and Allan, R.. 2011. "El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide a key to the future?" American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011. San Francisco, California, United States 05 - 09 Dec 2011 United States.
Interim report on the Southeast Queensland Cloud Seeding Research Program
Tessendorf, Sarah, Bruintjes, Roelof, Dixon, Mike, Pocernich, Matt, Brandes, Ed, Wilson, Jim, Roberts, Rita, Ikeda, Kyoko, Axisa, Duncan, Craig, Ian, Peter, Justin, May, Peter, Keenan, Tom, Manton, Michael, Stone, Roger C., Yates, David, Towler, Erin, Bringi, V. and Thurai, M.. 2008. Interim report on the Southeast Queensland Cloud Seeding Research Program. Boulder, CO. United States. National Center for Atmospheric Research.
A comparison of two seasonal rainfall forecasting systems for Australia
Fawcett, R. J. B. and Stone, R. C.. 2010. "A comparison of two seasonal rainfall forecasting systems for Australia." Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal. 60 (1), pp. 15-24.
Prospects for and value of long-time series data using global reanalysis data sets in the development of global climate derivatives
Stone, Roger C., Best, Peter and Sosenko, Olena. 2008. "Prospects for and value of long-time series data using global reanalysis data sets in the development of global climate derivatives." 2008 International Conference on Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications. Zurich, Switzerland 23 - 25 Jun 2008
Forecasting water allocations for Bundaberg sugarcane farmers
Everingham, Yvette, Baillie, Craig, Inman-Bamber, Geoff and Baillie, Justine. 2008. "Forecasting water allocations for Bundaberg sugarcane farmers." Climate Research. 36 (3), pp. 231-239. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00743
Climate risk management for agriculture: the Australian experience
Stone, Roger C.. 2010. "Climate risk management for agriculture: the Australian experience." CCl-XV UN World Meteorological Organisation Commission for Climatology: Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services for Sustainable Development. Antalya, Turkey 16 - 18 Feb 2010 Geneva, Switzerland.
Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?
Meinke, Holger, deVoil, Peter, Hammer, Graeme L., Power, Scott, Allan, Robert J., Stone, Roger C., Folland, Chris K. and Potgieter, Andries B.. 2005. "Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?" Journal of Climate. 18 (1), pp. 89-90. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3263.1
Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis
Meinke, Holger, Nelson, Rohan, Kokic, Phil, Stone, Roger, Selvaraju, Ramasamy and Baethgen, Walter. 2006. "Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis." Climate Research. 33 (1), pp. 101-110. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr033101
Inferential, nonparametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems
Maia, Aline de H. N., Meinke, Holger, Lennox, Sarah and Stone, Roger. 2007. "Inferential, nonparametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems." Monthly Weather Review. 135 (2), pp. 351-362. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3291.1
El Nino through the 'eyes' of a wheat crop
Potgieter, Andries B., Hammer, Graeme L., Meinke, Holger, Stone, Roger C. and Goddard, Lisa. 2003. "El Nino through the 'eyes' of a wheat crop." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.
An assessment of relationships between the Australian subtropical ridge, rainfall variability, and high-latitude circulation patterns
Williams, Allyson A. J. and Stone, Roger C.. 2009. "An assessment of relationships between the Australian subtropical ridge, rainfall variability, and high-latitude circulation patterns." International Journal of Climatology. 29 (5), pp. 691-709. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1732
Preliminary observations of cloud and precipitation characteristics in the Brisbane, Australia region
Tessendorf, Sarah, Bruintjes, Roelof, Wilson, James, Brandes, Ed, May, Peter, Peter, Justin, Craig, Ian, Stone, Roger C., Siems, Steve, Manton, Michael and Axisa, Duncan. 2008. "Preliminary observations of cloud and precipitation characteristics in the Brisbane, Australia region." Golden, Joe (ed.) 17th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification (AMS/WMA 2008). Denver, United States 21 - 25 Apr 2008 Boston, MA. United States.
Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index
Stone, Roger C., Hammer, Graeme L. and Marcussen, Torben. 1996. "Prediction of global rainfall probabilities using phases of the Southern Oscillation Index." Nature. 384 (6606), pp. 252-255. https://doi.org/10.1038/384252a0
Technologies for climate risk management
Stone, Roger C. and Price, Richard. 2004. "Technologies for climate risk management." 16th Australia New Zealand Climate Forum: Climate and Water (ANZCF2004). Lorne, Australia 08 - 10 Nov 2004 Lorne, Vic, Australia.
The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham, Power, Brendan and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "The influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on Queensland's rainfall." 15th Australian New Zealand Climate Forum. Palmerston, New Zealand 19 - 21 Mar 2003 Palmerston, New Zealand.
Contingency planning for drought - a case study in coping with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties
Stone, Roger C. and Meinke, Holger. 2007. "Contingency planning for drought - a case study in coping with agrometeorological risks and uncertainties." Sivakumar, Mannava V. K. and Motha, Raymond P. (ed.) Managing weather and climate risks in agriculture. Heidelberg, Germany. Springer. pp. 415-433
Climate variability, climate forecasting, and improved crop design
Stone, Roger C. and Hammer, Graeme L.. 2004. "Climate variability, climate forecasting, and improved crop design." 5th Princess Chulabhorn Science Congress: Evolving Genetics and Its Global Impact. Bangkok 16 - 20 Aug 2004 New York.
Enhanced risk management and decision-making capability across the sugarcane industry value chain based on seasonal climate forecasts
Everingham, Y. L., Muchow, R. C., Stone, R. C., Inman-Bamber, N. G., Singels, A. and Bezuidenhout, C. N.. 2002. "Enhanced risk management and decision-making capability across the sugarcane industry value chain based on seasonal climate forecasts." Agricultural Systems. 74 (3), pp. 459-477. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0308-521X(02)00050-1
Using Southern Oscillation index phases to forecast sugarcane yields: a case study for northeastern Australia
Everingham, Y. L., Muchow, R. C., Stone, R. C. and Coomans, D. H.. 2003. "Using Southern Oscillation index phases to forecast sugarcane yields: a case study for northeastern Australia." International Journal of Climatology. 23 (10), pp. 1211-1218. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.920
Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield
Potgieter, Andries B., Hammer, Graeme L., Meinke, Holger, Stone, Roger C. and Goddard, Lisa. 2005. "Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield." Journal of Climate. 18 (10), pp. 1566-1574. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3349.1
Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance
Stone, Roger C. and Meinke, Holger. 2005. "Operational seasonal forecasting of crop performance." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences. 360 (1463), pp. 2109-2124. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2005.1753
Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems
Harris, Graham, Chudleigh, Fred, Meinke, Holger, Donald, Alexis, Power, Brendan, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger and Wheeler, Matthew. 2003. "Using seasonal climate forecasts for more effective grain-cotton production systems." Australian Cotton Cooperative Research Centre Annual Science Review 2003. Armidale, Australia 23 - 24 Jul 2003 Armidale, Australia.
The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger, Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "The Madden Julian Oscillation and its relationship with rainfall in Queensland." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.
Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland
Donald, Alexis, Ribbe, Joachim, Stone, Roger C., Wheeler, Matthew, Meinke, Holger, Harris, Graham and Power, Brendan. 2003. "Using the real-time mulitvariate Madden Julian oscillation indices to predict rainfall in Queensland." 7th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography 2003: Southern Ocean Weather and Climate Variability: Regional and Global Effects. Wellington, New Zealand 24 - 28 Mar 2003 Boston, MA. United States.
Science for drought: proceedings of the National Drought Forum
Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian. Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) 2003. Science for drought: proceedings of the National Drought Forum. Brisbane. Queensland Department of Primary Industries.