Using Southern Oscillation index phases to forecast sugarcane yields: a case study for northeastern Australia
Article
Everingham, Y. L., Muchow, R. C., Stone, R. C. and Coomans, D. H.. 2003. "Using Southern Oscillation index phases to forecast sugarcane yields: a case study for northeastern Australia." International Journal of Climatology. 23 (10), pp. 1211-1218. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.920
| Article Title | Using Southern Oscillation index phases to forecast sugarcane yields: a case study for northeastern Australia |
|---|---|
| ERA Journal ID | 1969 |
| Article Category | Article |
| Authors | Everingham, Y. L. (Author), Muchow, R. C. (Author), Stone, R. C. (Author) and Coomans, D. H. (Author) |
| Journal Title | International Journal of Climatology |
| Journal Citation | 23 (10), pp. 1211-1218 |
| Number of Pages | 8 |
| Year | 2003 |
| Publisher | John Wiley & Sons |
| Place of Publication | London, United Kingdom |
| ISSN | 0899-8418 |
| 1097-0088 | |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.920 |
| Web Address (URL) | http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.920/pdf |
| Abstract | Climate is a key driver of sugarcane productivity. Advance knowledge of the likely climate and its impact on production could add value to production, harvest and marketing efforts. A climate forecast system that incorporates five patterns or phases of the southern oscillation index is used to assess whether an early indication of sugarcane yield anomalies in Australia can be produced. results indicate that, for certain sugarcane growing regions, the climate forecast systems offers better estimates of the direction of the anomaly when compared with no climate forecast system. Improved results of the direction of the yield anomaly can be obtained some 7 months prior to the commencement of harvest. This information can then be used by marketers to plan better the customer allocations, shipping schedules and storage requirements for the next season. Advance knowledge of the crop size can also assist industry decisons makers in scheduling when the harvest season should commence. Further research is required to determine if other climatic indices, such as sea-surface temperatures, can improve yield estimation. Consideration also needs to be given to determining whether the magnitude and direction of the yield anomaly can be more accurately forecasted with varying lead times. |
| Keywords | SOI; climate; forecast; sugarcane; yield; Australia; Monte Carlo |
| ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370108. Meteorology |
| 370202. Climatology | |
| 300402. Agro-ecosystem function and prediction | |
| Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
| Byline Affiliations | James Cook University |
| Sugar Research and Development Corporation, Australia | |
| Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, Queensland |
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Allan, Rob, Brohan, Philip, Compo, Gilbert P., Stone, Roger, Luterbacher, Juerg and Bronnimann, Stefan. 2011. "The international Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 92 (11), pp. 1421-1425. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011BAMS3218.1Editorial
Stone, Roger, Sivakumar, M. V. K. and Burt, Peter. 2006. "Editorial ." Meteorological Applications. 13 (S1), pp. 3-5. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482706002507Positive feedbacks between the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the global El Nino-Southern Oscillation
White, Warren B., Chen, Shyh-Chin, Allan, Robert J. and Stone, Roger C.. 2002. "Positive feedbacks between the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave and the global El Nino-Southern Oscillation ." Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. 107 (10), pp. 3165-3177. https://doi.org/10.1029/2000JC000581Is there an Indian Ocean dipole and is it independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation?
Allan, Robert J., Chambers, Don, Drosdowsky, Wasyl, Hendon, Harry, Latif, Mojib, Nicholls, Neville, Smith, Ian, Stone, Roger C. and Tourre, Yves. 2001. "Is there an Indian Ocean dipole and is it independent of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation?" CLIVAR Exchanges. 6 (3), pp. 18-22.Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: The new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations
Meinke, Holger and Stone, Roger C.. 2005. "Seasonal and inter-annual climate forecasting: The new tool for increasing preparedness to climate variability and change in agricultural planning and operations." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 70 (1-2), pp. 221-253. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-005-5948-6Weather, climate and farmers: an overview
Stone, Roger C. and Meinke, Holger. 2006. "Weather, climate and farmers: an overview." Meteorological Applications. 13 (S1), pp. 7-20. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1350482706002519Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Wheeler, Matthew, Maia, Aline de H. N., White, Neil, Stone, Roger C. and Ribbe, Joachim. 2006. "Intra-seasonal climate predictions - linking weather and climate forecasts." Vera, Carolina (ed.) 8th International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography (8ICSHMO): Understanding and Predicting Climate and Water Resources, their Variability and Change in the Southern Hemisphere. Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 24 - 28 Apr 2006 Washington, DC. United States.Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall
Donald, Alexis, Meinke, Holger, Power, Brendan, Maia, Aline de H. N., Wheeler, Matthew, Stone, Roger C., Ribbe, Joachim and White, Neil. 2006. "Near-global impact of the Madden-Julian Oscillation on rainfall." Geophysical Research Letters. 33 (9), p. L09704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL025155Submission to the House of Representatives Industry, Science and Innovation Committee Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia. Submission no. 10
Stone, Roger. 2009. "Submission to the House of Representatives Industry, Science and Innovation Committee Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia. Submission no. 10 ." Seasonal forecasting in Australia. Canberra, Australia. Commonwealth of Australia. pp. 1-8Short and long term weather prospects: recent breakthroughs in the understanding of climate patterns and climate change and their impacts on crop yields
Stone, Roger. 2006. "Short and long term weather prospects: recent breakthroughs in the understanding of climate patterns and climate change and their impacts on crop yields." 1st CropLife Australia Perspectives Conference 2006. Sydney 28 Nov 2006 Canberra, Australia.The value of an integrated approach to climate applications modelling
Stone, Roger C. and Meinke, Holger. 2006. "The value of an integrated approach to climate applications modelling." Hollis, A. J. and Kariko, A. P. (ed.) 18th Annual Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre Modelling Workshop. The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS): Challenges and Opportunities (BMRC 2006) . Melbourne, Australia 28 Nov - 01 Dec 2006 Melbourne, Australia.Drought risks and vulnerability in rainfed agriculture: example of a case study in Australia
Stone, Roger C. and Potgieter, Andries. 2008. "Drought risks and vulnerability in rainfed agriculture: example of a case study in Australia." Options Mediterraneennes.Impacts and adaptation response of infrastructure and communities to heatwaves: the southern Australian experience of 2009
Best, Peter, Marcussen, Torben, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Stone, Roger C., Reeves, Jim, Foelz, Colleen, Grace, Peter, Loughnan, Margaret, McEvoy, Darryn, Ahmed, Ifte, Mullett, Jane, Haynes, Katharine, Bird, Deanne, Coates, Lucinda and Ling, Megan. 2010. Impacts and adaptation response of infrastructure and communities to heatwaves: the southern Australian experience of 2009. Gold Coast, Australia. National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility (NCCARF).Climate outlook and review 5 April 2010
Stone, Roger C.. 2010. "Climate outlook and review 5 April 2010." Climate Outlook and Review.An application of demerit point approach in selection of most suitable climate models to characterise the potential climate change impact on regional Australia
Stone, Roger C., Marcussen, Torben and Mushtaq, Shahbaz. 2010. "An application of demerit point approach in selection of most suitable climate models to characterise the potential climate change impact on regional Australia." American Geophysical Union 2010 Fall Meeting. San Francisco, United States 13 - 17 Dec 2010 Washington, DC United States.El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide a key to the future?
Pudmenzky, C., Stone, R., Butler, H. and Allan, R.. 2011. "El Niño-Southern Oscillation influence on the dust storm activity in Australia: can the past provide a key to the future?" American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011. San Francisco, California, United States 05 - 09 Dec 2011 United States.Interim report on the Southeast Queensland Cloud Seeding Research Program
Tessendorf, Sarah, Bruintjes, Roelof, Dixon, Mike, Pocernich, Matt, Brandes, Ed, Wilson, Jim, Roberts, Rita, Ikeda, Kyoko, Axisa, Duncan, Craig, Ian, Peter, Justin, May, Peter, Keenan, Tom, Manton, Michael, Stone, Roger C., Yates, David, Towler, Erin, Bringi, V. and Thurai, M.. 2008. Interim report on the Southeast Queensland Cloud Seeding Research Program. Boulder, CO. United States. National Center for Atmospheric Research.A comparison of two seasonal rainfall forecasting systems for Australia
Fawcett, R. J. B. and Stone, R. C.. 2010. "A comparison of two seasonal rainfall forecasting systems for Australia." Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Journal. 60 (1), pp. 15-24.Prospects for and value of long-time series data using global reanalysis data sets in the development of global climate derivatives
Stone, Roger C., Best, Peter and Sosenko, Olena. 2008. "Prospects for and value of long-time series data using global reanalysis data sets in the development of global climate derivatives." 2008 International Conference on Reanalyses Data, Historical Reanalyses and Climate Applications. Zurich, Switzerland 23 - 25 Jun 2008Forecasting water allocations for Bundaberg sugarcane farmers
Everingham, Yvette, Baillie, Craig, Inman-Bamber, Geoff and Baillie, Justine. 2008. "Forecasting water allocations for Bundaberg sugarcane farmers." Climate Research. 36 (3), pp. 231-239. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr00743Climate risk management for agriculture: the Australian experience
Stone, Roger C.. 2010. "Climate risk management for agriculture: the Australian experience." CCl-XV UN World Meteorological Organisation Commission for Climatology: Technical Conference on Changing Climate and Demands for Climate Services for Sustainable Development. Antalya, Turkey 16 - 18 Feb 2010 Geneva, Switzerland.Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?
Meinke, Holger, deVoil, Peter, Hammer, Graeme L., Power, Scott, Allan, Robert J., Stone, Roger C., Folland, Chris K. and Potgieter, Andries B.. 2005. "Rainfall variability of decadal and longer time scales: signal or noise?" Journal of Climate. 18 (1), pp. 89-90. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3263.1Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis
Meinke, Holger, Nelson, Rohan, Kokic, Phil, Stone, Roger, Selvaraju, Ramasamy and Baethgen, Walter. 2006. "Actionable climate knowledge: from analysis to synthesis." Climate Research. 33 (1), pp. 101-110. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr033101Inferential, nonparametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems
Maia, Aline de H. N., Meinke, Holger, Lennox, Sarah and Stone, Roger. 2007. "Inferential, nonparametric statistics to assess the quality of probabilistic forecast systems." Monthly Weather Review. 135 (2), pp. 351-362. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3291.1El Nino through the 'eyes' of a wheat crop
Potgieter, Andries B., Hammer, Graeme L., Meinke, Holger, Stone, Roger C. and Goddard, Lisa. 2003. "El Nino through the 'eyes' of a wheat crop." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) National Drought Forum 2003: Science for Drought. Brisbane, Australia 15 - 16 Apr 2003 Brisbane, Australia.Drought and climate forecasting in an Australian context
Stone, Roger C., Fawcett, Robert, Everingham, Yvette L. and Pinington, Greg. 2003. "Drought and climate forecasting in an Australian context." Stone, Roger C. and Partridge, Ian (ed.) Science for drought: proceedings of the National Drought Forum. Brisbane, Australia. Queensland Department of Primary Industries. pp. 41-48An assessment of relationships between the Australian subtropical ridge, rainfall variability, and high-latitude circulation patterns
Williams, Allyson A. J. and Stone, Roger C.. 2009. "An assessment of relationships between the Australian subtropical ridge, rainfall variability, and high-latitude circulation patterns." International Journal of Climatology. 29 (5), pp. 691-709. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1732Preliminary observations of cloud and precipitation characteristics in the Brisbane, Australia region
Tessendorf, Sarah, Bruintjes, Roelof, Wilson, James, Brandes, Ed, May, Peter, Peter, Justin, Craig, Ian, Stone, Roger C., Siems, Steve, Manton, Michael and Axisa, Duncan. 2008. "Preliminary observations of cloud and precipitation characteristics in the Brisbane, Australia region." Golden, Joe (ed.) 17th Conference on Planned and Inadvertent Weather Modification (AMS/WMA 2008). Denver, United States 21 - 25 Apr 2008 Boston, MA. United States.