Quantifying the potential effects of regional climate change on wheat leaf rust disease in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg

Poster

El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Junk, Jurgen, Tychon, Bernard and Delfosse, Philippe. 2016. "Quantifying the potential effects of regional climate change on wheat leaf rust disease in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." 2016 APS Annual Meeting. Tampa, United States 30 Jul - 03 Aug 2016 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-106-12-S4.1
Paper/Presentation Title

Quantifying the potential effects of regional climate change on wheat leaf rust disease in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg

Presentation TypePoster
AuthorsEl Jarroudi, Moussa (Author), Kouadio, Louis (Author), Junk, Jurgen (Author), Tychon, Bernard (Author) and Delfosse, Philippe (Author)
Journal or Proceedings TitlePhytopathology: International Journal of the American Phytopathological Society
Journal Citation106 (125), p. S4.130
Article NumberS4.130
Number of Pages1
Year2016
PublisherAmerican Phytopathological Society
Place of PublicationUnited States
ISSN0031-949X
1943-7684
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-106-12-S4.1
Conference/Event2016 APS Annual Meeting
Event Details
2016 APS Annual Meeting
Event Date
30 Jul 2016 to end of 03 Aug 2016
Event Location
Tampa, United States
Abstract

Climate change will affect wheat crop production both in the main processes of plant growth and development and in the occurrences and severities of plant diseases. We assessed the potential infection periods of wheat leaf rust WLR in a changing climate at two climatologically different sites in Luxembourg using a threshold-based model for WLR infection and progress that involves night-time hourly data of air temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. Field experiments were conducted during the 2003–2013 period at the selected sites to test the model. Projected climate data, from a multi model ensemble of regional climate models (spatial resolution 25 km) as well as an additional projection with a higher spatial resolution of 1.3 km, were used for investigating the potential WLR infection periods for two future time spans. Results showed that the infections of WLR were satisfactorily simulated at both sites during 2003–2013 period: probabilities of WLR detection were close to 1 and the critical success index ranged from 0.80 to 0.94. Regional climate projections indicated an increase in temperatures over the 2014-2050 and 2091-2100 periods compared to the reference period 1991–2000. Annual precipitation is also expected to increase slightly in the future. Further, trends in increased favourable days of WLR infection would likely occur at both sites due to projected climatic conditions more conducive than in the reference period. The methodology presented here can be readily transferred to other regions and other fungal diseases by adjusting the meteorological threshold values essential for a specific disease development.

Keywordsclimate change; wheat leaf rust disease
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300409. Crop and pasture protection (incl. pests, diseases and weeds)
Public Notes

Poster presentation.

Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Liege, Belgium
International Centre for Applied Climate Science
Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Luxembourg
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Beyer, Marco, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Tychon, Bernard, Maraite, Henri, Bock, Clive H. and Delfosse, Philippe. 2015. "Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." Field Crops Research. 172, pp. 32-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.11.012
Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments
Bock, C. H., El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L. A., Mackels, C., Chiang, K.-S. and Delfosse, P.. 2015. "Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments." Plant Disease. 99 (8), pp. 1104-1112. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-09-14-0925-RE
Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale
Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel K., Davidson, Andrew, Zhang, Yinsuo and Chipanshi, Aston. 2014. "Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale." Remote Sensing. 6 (10), pp. 10193-10214. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs61010193
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Giraud, Frederic, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4809-4818. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-014-2557-9
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4797-4808. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-013-2463-6
An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty
Newlands, Nathaniel K., Zamar, David S., Kouadio, Louis A., Zhang, Yinsuo, Chipanshi, Aston, Potgieter, Andries, Toure, Souleymane and Hill, Harvey S. J.. 2014. "An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty." Frontiers in Environmental Science. 2, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00017
A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing
Bock, Clive, El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Chiang, Kuo-Szu and Delfosse, Philippe. 2014. "A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing." Phytopathology: International Journal of the American Phytopathological Society. 104 (11), pp. 15-16.
Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates
Kouadio, Louis, Djaby, Bakary, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1203-1213.
Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]
Kouadio, Amani Louis, Djaby, Bakary, Duveiller, Gregory, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]." Biotechnology, Agronomy, Society and Environment. 16 (2), pp. 179-191.
Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe, Giraud, Frederic, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Maraite, Henri and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1386-1399.
Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system
Djaby, Bakary, de Wit, Allard, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2013. "Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system." Sustainable Agriculture Research. 2 (4), pp. 12-29. https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n4p12
Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Tychon, Bernard, Delfosse, Philippe and Bock, Clive H.. 2014. "Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat." 2014 APS-CPS Joint Meeting. Minneapolis, United States of America 09 - 13 Aug 2014 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-104-11-S3.1
Profitability of using warning system for foliar disease of wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L., Beyer, M., Tychon, B. and Delfosse, P.. 2013. "Profitability of using warning system for foliar disease of wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." 2013 APS-MSA Joint Meeting. United States 10 - 14 Aug 2013 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-103-6-S2.1