Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat

Article


Junk, J., Kouadio, L., Delfosse, P. and El Jarroudi, M.. 2016. "Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat." Climatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change. 135 (3-4), pp. 439-451. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1587-8
Article Title

Effects of regional climate change on brown rust disease in winter wheat

ERA Journal ID1965
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsJunk, J. (Author), Kouadio, L. (Author), Delfosse, P. (Author) and El Jarroudi, M. (Author)
Journal TitleClimatic Change: an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change
Journal Citation135 (3-4), pp. 439-451
Number of Pages13
Year2016
PublisherSpringer
Place of PublicationNetherlands
ISSN0165-0009
1573-1480
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1587-8
Web Address (URL)https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-015-1587-8
Abstract

Projected climate changes will affect wheat crop production both in the main processes of plant growth and development but also in the occurrences and severities of plant diseases. We assessed the potential infection periods of wheat leaf rust (WLR) at two climatologically different sites in Luxembourg. A threshold-based model, taking hourly values of air temperatures, relative humidity and precipitation during night-time into account, was used for calculating favourable WLR infection days during three periods throughout the cropping season. Field experiments were conducted during the 2003–2013 period at the selected sites. Projected climate data, from a multi model ensemble of regional climate models (spatial resolution 25 km) as well as an additional projection with a higher spatial resolution of 1.3 km, were used for investigating the potential WLR infection periods for two future time spans. Results showed that the infections of WLR were satisfactorily simulated during the development of wheat at both sites for the 2003–2013 period. The probabilities of WLR detection were close to 1 and the critical success index ranged from 0.80 to 0.94 (perfect score = 1 for both). Moreover, the highest proportions of favourable days of WLR infection were simulated during spring and summer at both sites. Regional climate projections showed an increase in temperatures by 1.6 K for 2041–2050 and by 3.7 K for 2091–2100 compared to the reference period 1991–2000. Positive trends in favourable WLR infection conditions occur at both sites more conducive than in the reference period due to projected climatic conditions.

Keywordsinfection periods; plant disease monitoring; regional climate modelling; wheat leaf rust
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370202. Climatology
300409. Crop and pasture protection (incl. pests, diseases and weeds)
Byline AffiliationsLuxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Luxembourg
International Centre for Applied Climate Science
University of Liege, Belgium
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Bock, Clive, El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Chiang, Kuo-Szu and Delfosse, Philippe. 2014. "A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing." Phytopathology: International Journal of the American Phytopathological Society. 104 (11), pp. 15-16.
Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates
Kouadio, Louis, Djaby, Bakary, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1203-1213.
Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]
Kouadio, Amani Louis, Djaby, Bakary, Duveiller, Gregory, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]." Biotechnology, Agronomy, Society and Environment. 16 (2), pp. 179-191.
Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe, Giraud, Frederic, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Maraite, Henri and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1386-1399.
Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system
Djaby, Bakary, de Wit, Allard, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2013. "Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system." Sustainable Agriculture Research. 2 (4), pp. 12-29. https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n4p12
Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Tychon, Bernard, Delfosse, Philippe and Bock, Clive H.. 2014. "Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat." 2014 APS-CPS Joint Meeting. Minneapolis, United States of America 09 - 13 Aug 2014 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-104-11-S3.1