Improved prediction of leaf emergence for efficacious crop protection: assessing field variability in phyllotherms for upper leaves in winter wheat and winter barley

Article


El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Junk, Jurgen and Bock, Clive H.. 2020. "Improved prediction of leaf emergence for efficacious crop protection: assessing field variability in phyllotherms for upper leaves in winter wheat and winter barley." Agronomy. 10 (11). https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy10111825
Article Title

Improved prediction of leaf emergence for efficacious crop protection: assessing field variability in phyllotherms for upper leaves in winter wheat and winter barley

ERA Journal ID200126
Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsEl Jarroudi, Moussa (Author), Kouadio, Louis (Author), Junk, Jurgen (Author) and Bock, Clive H. (Author)
Journal TitleAgronomy
Journal Citation10 (11)
Article Number1825
Number of Pages20
Year2020
PublisherMDPI AG
Place of PublicationSwitzerland
ISSN2073-4395
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy10111825
Web Address (URL)https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/10/11/1825
Abstract

The choice of the phyllotherm value for predicting leaf emergence under field conditions is pivotal to the success of fungicide-based disease risk management in temperate cereals. In this study, we investigated phyllotherm variability for predicting the emergence of the three uppermost leaves (i.e., three last leaves to emerge) in winter wheat and winter barley fields. Data from four sites representative of wheat and barley growing regions in Luxembourg were used within the PROCULTURE model to predict the emergence of F-2, F-1 and F (F being the flag leaf) during the 2014-2019 cropping seasons. The phyllotherms tested ranged between 100°Cd and 160°Cd, in 15°Cd steps, including the current default value of 130°Cd. The comparisons between the observed and predicted emerged leaf area were qualitatively evaluated using the mean absolute error (MAE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and Willmott's index (WI). A phyllotherm of 100°Cd accurately and reliably predicted the emergence of all three upper leaves under the various environmental conditions and crop cultivars of winter wheat and winter barley over the study period. MAE and RMSE were generally <5% and the WI values were most often greater or equal to 0.90 for F-1 and F. For phyllotherm values greater or equal to 115°Cd, the prediction errors generally increased for F-1 and F, with MAE and RMSE exceeding 20% in most cases. F-2 agreement between observed and predicted values was generally similar when using 100°Cd or 115°Cd. These results tie in valuable, complementary information regarding the variability of phyllotherms within leaf layers in winter wheat and winter barley in Luxembourg. Accurate and reliable leaf emergence prediction from F-2 to F allows for timely fungicide application, which ensures lasting protection against infections by foliar fungal disease pathogens. Hence, understanding phyllotherms can help ensure timely, environmentally sound, and efficacious fungicide application while increasing the likelihood of improved yields of winter wheat and winter barley.

Keywordsphenology; leaf emergence; crop protection; fungal disease risk
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300403. Agronomy
300409. Crop and pasture protection (incl. pests, diseases and weeds)
300210. Sustainable agricultural development
Byline AffiliationsUniversity of Liege, Belgium
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology, Luxembourg
Department of Agriculture, United States
Institution of OriginUniversity of Southern Queensland
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Kouadio, Louis and Newlands, Nathaniel K.. 2015. "Building capacity for assessing spatial-based sustainability metrics in agriculture." Decision Analytics. 2 (2). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40165-015-0011-9
Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Beyer, Marco, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Tychon, Bernard, Maraite, Henri, Bock, Clive H. and Delfosse, Philippe. 2015. "Economics of a decision–support system for managing the main fungal diseases of winter wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." Field Crops Research. 172, pp. 32-41. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2014.11.012
Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments
Bock, C. H., El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L. A., Mackels, C., Chiang, K.-S. and Delfosse, P.. 2015. "Disease Severity Estimates-Effects of Rater Accuracy and Assessment Methods for Comparing Treatments." Plant Disease. 99 (8), pp. 1104-1112. https://doi.org/10.1094/PDIS-09-14-0925-RE
Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale
Kouadio, Louis, Newlands, Nathaniel K., Davidson, Andrew, Zhang, Yinsuo and Chipanshi, Aston. 2014. "Assessing the Performance of MODIS NDVI and EVI for Seasonal Crop Yield Forecasting at the Ecodistrict Scale." Remote Sensing. 6 (10), pp. 10193-10214. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs61010193
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Giraud, Frederic, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: II. Exploring the optimization of fungicide sprays through a decision support system." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4809-4818. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-014-2557-9
Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe and Tychon, Bernard. 2014. "Brown rust disease control in winter wheat: I. Exploring an approach for disease progression based on night weather conditions." Environmental Science and Pollution Research. 21 (7), pp. 4797-4808. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-013-2463-6
An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty
Newlands, Nathaniel K., Zamar, David S., Kouadio, Louis A., Zhang, Yinsuo, Chipanshi, Aston, Potgieter, Andries, Toure, Souleymane and Hill, Harvey S. J.. 2014. "An integrated, probabilistic model for improved seasonal forecasting of agricultural crop yield under environmental uncertainty." Frontiers in Environmental Science. 2, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00017
A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing
Bock, Clive, El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Chiang, Kuo-Szu and Delfosse, Philippe. 2014. "A comparison of raters and disease assessment methods for estimating disease severity for purposes of hypothesis testing." Phytopathology: International Journal of the American Phytopathological Society. 104 (11), pp. 15-16.
Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates
Kouadio, Louis, Djaby, Bakary, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Importance of a well-distributed frequency of measurements in the senescence monitoring of winter wheat and yield estimates." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1203-1213.
Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]
Kouadio, Amani Louis, Djaby, Bakary, Duveiller, Gregory, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Estimating winter wheat yield through the decreasing phase of its green area [Cinetique de decroissance de la surface verte et estimation du rendement du ble d'hiver]." Biotechnology, Agronomy, Society and Environment. 16 (2), pp. 179-191.
Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Delfosse, Philippe, Giraud, Frederic, Junk, Jurgen, Hoffmann, Lucien, Maraite, Henri and Tychon, Bernard. 2012. "Typology of the main fungal diseases affecting winter wheat in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg." Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology . 2 (12), pp. 1386-1399.
Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system
Djaby, Bakary, de Wit, Allard, Kouadio, Louis, El Jarroudi, Moussa and Tychon, Bernard. 2013. "Spatial distribution of calibrated WOFOST parameters and their influence on the performances of a regional yield forecasting system." Sustainable Agriculture Research. 2 (4), pp. 12-29. https://doi.org/10.5539/sar.v2n4p12
Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Kouadio, Louis, Mackels, Christophe, Tychon, Bernard, Delfosse, Philippe and Bock, Clive H.. 2014. "Disease severity assessment in epidemiological studies: accuracy and reliability of visual estimates of Septoria leaf blotch (SLB) in winter wheat." 2014 APS-CPS Joint Meeting. Minneapolis, United States of America 09 - 13 Aug 2014 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-104-11-S3.1
Profitability of using warning system for foliar disease of wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg
El Jarroudi, M., Kouadio, L., Beyer, M., Tychon, B. and Delfosse, P.. 2013. "Profitability of using warning system for foliar disease of wheat in the Grand-Duchy of Luxembourg." 2013 APS-MSA Joint Meeting. United States 10 - 14 Aug 2013 United States. American Phytopathological Society. https://doi.org/10.1094/PHYTO-103-6-S2.1