Integrating rainfall index-based insurance with optimal crop management strategies can reduce financial risks for Australian dryland cotton farmers
Article
Article Title | Integrating rainfall index-based insurance with optimal crop management strategies can reduce financial risks for Australian dryland cotton farmers |
---|---|
ERA Journal ID | 214257 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Kath, Jarrod, Kouadio, Louis, King, Rachel, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Barratt, Jonathan |
Journal Title | Sustainable Futures |
Journal Citation | 8 |
Article Number | 100249 |
Number of Pages | 10 |
Year | 2024 |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
ISSN | 2666-1888 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100249 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666188824000996 |
Abstract | Drought undermines the financial sustainability of farmers. While farmers have adopted various strategies to mitigate some drought impacts, they remain exposed to substantial drought risk. Insurance could be useful in managing climatic risks and for encouraging farmers to take sensible risks (e.g., changing their sowing date to increase yield), but it can be costly. Here, we tested whether the integration of a change in sowing date with rainfall index-based insurance could improve farmer profitability and income stability. We used the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM)-Cotton model to simulate cotton lint yields for various sowing dates, taking into account different management strategies, across three dry-land cotton research farm sites – Dalby, Goondiwindi, and Theodore – from 1940 to 2022. We designed the index-based insurance payout when the average rainfall received during the growing season falls below a predefined level, such as the 5th, 10th, or 20th percentile of rainfall. Our study, which involved 3.9 million cotton lint simulations and 3,000 rainfall index-based insurance products, showed that combining a shift in sowing date with insurance can lead to an income improvement of up to 21.5% at some study sites. Additionally, in drought years, the income improvement for farmers who combined optimal sowing dates with rainfall index-based insurance was up to 48.0%. The framework developed in this study could aid in devising financial strategies to enhance farming resilience during climate extremes. |
Keywords | drought adaptation; climate risk; Farming practices; Index insurance; Risk transfer |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 300205. Agricultural production systems simulation |
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling | |
300210. Sustainable agricultural development | |
490501. Applied statistics | |
Byline Affiliations | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences |
Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam | |
School of Agriculture and Environmental Science | |
School of Mathematics, Physics and Computing | |
CelsiusPro, Australia |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/z842z/integrating-rainfall-index-based-insurance-with-optimal-crop-management-strategies-can-reduce-financial-risks-for-australian-dryland-cotton-farmers
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Tran, Van Thanh, An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Cockfield, Geoff. 2022. "Nuanced assessment of livelihood resilience through the intersectional lens of gender and ethnicity: evidence from small-scale farming communities in the upland regions of Vietnam." Journal of Rural Studies. 92, pp. 68-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2022.03.011Kernel Ridge Regression Hybrid Method for Wheat Yield Prediction with Satellite-Derived Predictors
Ahmed, A. A. Masrur, Sharma, Ekta, Jui, S. Janifer Jabin, Deo, Ravinesh C., Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Ali, Mumtaz. 2022. "Kernel Ridge Regression Hybrid Method for Wheat Yield Prediction with Satellite-Derived Predictors." Remote Sensing. 14 (5), pp. 1-24. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14051136An improved calibration technique to address high dimensionality and non-linearity in integrated groundwater and surface water models
Rafiei, Vahid, Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Bailey, Ryan T. and An-Vo, Duc-Anh. 2022. "An improved calibration technique to address high dimensionality and non-linearity in integrated groundwater and surface water models." Environmental Modelling and Software. 149, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105312General equilibrium impact evaluation of food top-up induced by households’ renewable power self-supply in 141 regions
Nguyen, Duong Binh, Nong, Duy, Simshauser, Paul and Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2022. "General equilibrium impact evaluation of food top-up induced by households’ renewable power self-supply in 141 regions." Applied Energy. 306 (Part B), pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.118126Copula-based statistical modelling of synoptic-scale climate indices for quantifying and managing agricultural risks in Australia
Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2020. "Copula-based statistical modelling of synoptic-scale climate indices for quantifying and managing agricultural risks in Australia." Bulletin of the Australian Mathematical Society. 101 (1), pp. 166-169. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0004972719001217Drought Outlook Products Review
Cobon, David, Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Reardon-Smith, Kate. 2019. Drought Outlook Products Review. Toowoomba, Australia. University of Southern Queensland.Weather-based predictive modeling of Cercospora beticola infection events in sugar beet in Belgium
El Jarroudi, Moussa, Chairi, Fadia, Kouadio, Louis, Antoons, Kathleen, Sallah, Abdoul-Hamid Mohamed and Fettweis, Xavier. 2021. "Weather-based predictive modeling of Cercospora beticola infection events in sugar beet in Belgium." Journal of Fungi. 7 (9). https://doi.org/10.3390/jof7090777A framework for assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasting in key agricultural decisions
An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Radanielson, Ando Mariot, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Reardon-Smith, Kate and Hewitt, Chris. 2021. "A framework for assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasting in key agricultural decisions." Climate Services. 22, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100234Coping with drought: Lessons learned from robusta coffee growers in Vietnam
Byrareddy, Vivekananda, Kouadio, Louis, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Kath, Jarrod and Stone, Roger. 2021. "Coping with drought: Lessons learned from robusta coffee growers in Vietnam." Climate Services. 22, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100229Methodology for producing the Drought Monitor
Pudmenzky, Christa, Guillory, Laura, Cobon, David H. and Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2020. Methodology for producing the Drought Monitor. Toowoomba, Queensland. University of Southern Queensland.Cotton and climate change
Williams, Allyson A. J., McRae, David, Kouadio, Louis, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Davis, Peter. 2019. "Cotton and climate change." Hatfield, Jerry L., Sivakumar, Mannava V. K. and Prueger, John H. (ed.) Agroclimatology: linking agriculture to climate. United States. American Society of Agronomy / Crop Science Society of America / Soil Science Society of America. pp. 343-368Northern Australia Climate Program: supporting adaptation in rangeland grazing systems through more targeted climate forecasts, improved drought information and an innovative extension program
Cobon, David, Jarvis, Chelsea, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Guillory, Laura, Pudmenzky, Christa, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Stone, Roger. 2021. "Northern Australia Climate Program: supporting adaptation in rangeland grazing systems through more targeted climate forecasts, improved drought information and an innovative extension program." The Rangeland Journal. 43 (3), pp. 87-100. https://doi.org/10.1071/RJ20074Global disparities in agricultural climate index-based insurance research
Adeyinka, Adewuyi Ayodele, Kath, Jarrod, Nguyen-Huy, Thong, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Souvignet, Maxime, Range, Matthias and Barratt, Jonathan. 2022. "Global disparities in agricultural climate index-based insurance research." Climate Risk Management. 35, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2022.100394‘Dig Up Dirt’, using citizen science to understand the diversity of beneficial fungi in Australian agroecosystems
Heuck, M.K., Birnbaum, C., Kath, J., Powell, J. and Frew, A.. 2022. "‘Dig Up Dirt’, using citizen science to understand the diversity of beneficial fungi in Australian agroecosystems." 2022 Conference of the Ecological Society of Australia (ESA 2022). Wollongong, Australia 28 Nov - 02 Dec 2022 Australia.Growth kinetics and purifying performance of A. Platensis in stirring-free culture based on brewery effluent's supernatant
Liady, Mouhamadou Nourou Dine, Adande, Richard, Akowanou, Onesime Akuemaho Virgile, Adjahouinou, Dogbe Clement, Cecilia, Ahondokpe, Goussanou, Baruc Kpehouenou, Zouhir, Fouad, Kouadio, Louis Amani, Aina, Martin Pepin and Fiogbe, Emile Didier. 2022. "Growth kinetics and purifying performance of A. Platensis in stirring-free culture based on brewery effluent's supernatant ." Water Science and Technology. 86 (12), pp. 3153-3162. https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2022.385Drought outlook validation using ACCESS-S2 hindcast
Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Cobon, David. 2022. Drought outlook validation using ACCESS-S2 hindcast. Northern Australia Climate Program (NACP).Systemic risk management in farming - geographic distribution and diversity
Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2022. "Systemic risk management in farming - geographic distribution and diversity." Future Drought Fund’s 2022 Science to Practice Forum. 07 - 08 Jun 2022 Australia.