Understanding how climate change threatens food security

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Nguyen-Huy, Thong. 2021. "Understanding how climate change threatens food security." A compendium of essays for the Allianz Climate Risk Research Award 2021. Germany.
Paper/Presentation Title

Understanding how climate change threatens food security

Presentation TypeOther
AuthorsNguyen-Huy, Thong
Year2021
Place of PublicationGermany
Web Address (URL) of Conference Proceedingshttps://www.allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/sustainability/documents/20211203_Allianz_Climate_Risk_Research_Award.pdf
Conference/EventA compendium of essays for the Allianz Climate Risk Research Award 2021
Event Details
A compendium of essays for the Allianz Climate Risk Research Award 2021
Abstract

Analyzing the challenges extreme climate events pose to food systems based on a single driver could underestimate the risks because of the interaction among extreme events across multiple spatial and temporal scales.
The 2021 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report links rising global temperatures over the past century, increases in the number and severity of storms, and worsening droughts and floods to a decrease in food security. Future changes in temperatures, increases in floods and droughts and more pests and diseases will further affect the food supply and lead to higher risk for all aspects of the food system.
For example, despite farmers’ efforts to adapt to changing conditions, wheat yields in India fell 5.2%between 1981 and 2009 — while the population grew by 66%. More recently, heavy rains have produced swarms of locustsacross East Africa and Southwest Asia, destroying crops and disrupting food supplies.
The increasing effects of climate change are likely to decrease rice, corn, wheat, and soy — the four essential crops upon which the world depends.
Existing research seeking to understand the impact of climate change tends to focus on a single driver. However, interactions between extreme events may increase the climate influence. Analyzing the challenges that extreme events pose, for example, to food systems, based on a single driver could lead to underestimating risk because of the interaction among extreme events across multiple spatial and temporal scales.
Only a few studies have investigated the combined impacts of multiple climate drivers using multivariate models with some assumptions restricted in practice. The lack of research and approaches to completely model the interdependence between climate drivers obstructs effective risk-based assessment, management and adaptation.
The spread of extreme events over locations and times, known as systemic risk, is also a significant obstacle for implementing risk transfer solutions such as crop insurance products because of weak modelling of the relationship between events.

ANZSRC Field of Research 2020370101. Adverse weather events
370299. Climate change science not elsewhere classified
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Byline AffiliationsCentre for Applied Climate Sciences
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