Copula-statistical precipitation forecasting model in Australia’s agro-ecological zones
Article
Article Title | Copula-statistical precipitation forecasting model in Australia’s agro-ecological zones |
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ERA Journal ID | 5245 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Nguyen-Huy, Thong (Author), Deo, Ravinesh C. (Author), An-Vo, Duc-Anh (Author), Mushtaq, Shahbaz (Author) and Khan, Shahjahan (Author) |
Journal Title | Agricultural Water Management |
Journal Citation | 191, pp. 153-172 |
Number of Pages | 20 |
Year | 2017 |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Place of Publication | Netherlands |
ISSN | 0378-3774 |
1873-2283 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2017.06.010 |
Web Address (URL) | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377417302093 |
Abstract | Vine copulas are employed to explore the influence of multi-synoptic-scale climate drivers – El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) Tripole Index (TPI) – on spring precipitation forecasting at Agro-ecological Zones (AEZs) of the Australia’s wheat belt. To forecast spring precipitation, significant seasonal lagged correlation of ENSO and TPI with precipitation anomalies in AEZs using data from Australian Water Availability Project (1900–2013) was established. Most of the AEZs exhibit statistically significant dependence of precipitation and climate indices, except for the western AEZs. Bivariate and trivariate copula models were applied to capture single (ENSO) and dual predictor (ENSO & TPI) influence, respectively, on seasonal forecasting. To perform a comprehensive evaluation of the developed copula-statistical models, a total of ten one- and two-parameter bivariate copulas ranging from elliptical to Archimedean families were examined. Stronger upper tail dependence is visible in the bivariate model, suggesting that the influence of ENSO on precipitation forecasting during a La Niña event is more evident than during an El Niño event. In general, while the inclusion of TPI as a synoptic-scale driver into the models leads to a notable reduction in the mean simulated precipitation, it depicts a general improvement in the median values. The forecasting results showed that the trivariate forecasting model can yield a better accuracy than the bivariate model for the east and southeast AEZs. The trivariate forecasting model was found to improve the forecasting during the La Niña and negative TPI. This study ascertains the success of copula-statistical models for investigating the joint behaviour of seasonal precipitation modelled with multiple climate indices. The forecasting information and respective models have significant implications for water resources and crop health management including better ways to adapt and implement viable agricultural solutions in the face of climatic challenges in major agricultural hubs, such as Australia’s wheat belt |
Keywords | copula-statistical models; seasonal precipitation forecasting; vine copulas; joint distribution; goodness of fit; climate indices |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370201. Climate change processes |
410402. Environmental assessment and monitoring | |
370108. Meteorology | |
370202. Climatology | |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences |
International Centre for Applied Climate Science | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q44w1/copula-statistical-precipitation-forecasting-model-in-australia-s-agro-ecological-zones
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