Causality of climate, food production and conflict over the last two millennia in the Hexi Corridor, China
Article
Article Title | Causality of climate, food production and conflict over the last two millennia in the Hexi Corridor, China |
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ERA Journal ID | 3551 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Yang, Linshan (Author), Feng, Qi (Author), Adamowski, Jan F. (Author), Deo, Ravinesh C. (Author), Yin, Zhenlaing (Author), Wen, Xiaohu (Author), Tang, Xia (Author) and Wu, Min (Author) |
Journal Title | Science of the Total Environment |
Journal Citation | 713, pp. 1-11 |
Article Number | 136587 |
Number of Pages | 11 |
Year | 2020 |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Place of Publication | Netherlands |
ISSN | 0048-9697 |
1879-1026 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.136587 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720300978 |
Abstract | The relationship between climate and human society has frequently been investigated to ascertain whether climate variability can trigger social crises (e.g., migration and armed conflicts). In the current study, statistical methods (e.g., correlation analysis and Granger Causality Analysis) are used in a systematic analysis of the potential causality of climate variability on migration and armed conflicts. Specifically, the statistical methods are applied to determine the relationships between long-term fine-grained temperature and precipitation data and contemporary social conditions, gleaned from historical documents covering the last two millennia in China's Hexi Corridor. Results found the region's reconstructed temperature to be strongly coupled with precipitation dynamics, i.e., a warming climate was associated with a greater supply of moisture, whereas a cooling period was associated with more frequent drought. A prolonged cold period tended to coincide with societal instability, such as a shift from unification towards fragmentation. In contrast, a prolonged warm period coincided with rapid development, i.e., a shift from separation to unification. The statistical significance of the causality linkages between climate variability, bio-productivity, grain yield, migration and conflict suggests that climate variability is not the direct causative agent of these phenomena, but that climate reduced food production which gradually lead to migration and conflicts. A conceptual causal model developed through this study describes the causative pathway of climate variability impacts on migration and conflicts in the Hexi Corridor. Applied to current conditions, the model suggests that steady and proactive promotion of the nation's economic buffering capacity might best address the uncertainty brought on by a range of potential future climate scenarios and their potential impacts. |
Keywords | climate variability; food production; migration; conflict; The Hexi Corridor |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 410404. Environmental management |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | Chinese Academy of Sciences, China |
McGill University, Canada | |
School of Sciences | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q5894/causality-of-climate-food-production-and-conflict-over-the-last-two-millennia-in-the-hexi-corridor-china
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