Development of copula statistical drought prediction model using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index
Edited book (chapter)
| Chapter Title | Development of copula statistical drought prediction model using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index |
|---|---|
| Book Chapter Category | Edited book (chapter) |
| ERA Publisher ID | 1821 |
| Book Title | Handbook of probabilistic models |
| Authors | Dayal, Kavina S. (Author), Deo, Ravinesh C. (Author) and Apan, Armando A. (Author) |
| Editors | Samui, Pijush, Bui, Dieu Tien, Chakraborty, Subrata and Deo, Ravinesh C. |
| Page Range | 141-178 |
| Chapter Number | 6 |
| Number of Pages | 38 |
| Year | 2020 |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
| ISBN | 9780128165140 |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-816514-0.00006-0 |
| Web Address (URL) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B9780128165140000060 |
| Abstract | Modeling of drought properties is paramount for real-life decision-making in hydrologic engineering, agriculture, water management, and drought-risk relief. This study models joint behavior of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index and drought properties (severity, S; duration, D; intensity, I), conditional upon pertinent climate mode indices. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation indicators were selected for conditional prediction of drought events, and the D-S-I properties were used to investigate the drought-risk. Vine copula algorithm was used to establish bivariate and trivariate joint distributions of drought behavior for conditional probability–based simulations, where the predictions were made for accurately modeling the drought. Results yielded considerably small differences between the observed and predicted drought properties, elucidating the effectiveness of copula-statistical models in future drought-risk modeling. The findings have implications for drought and aridity management in other agricultural regions where complex relationships between climate anomalies and drought properties are likely to exacerbate the net risk of a future drought event. |
| Keywords | drought properties; Bivariate and trivariate model; Copula-statistical model; vine copulas; probabilistic forecasting; drought-risk |
| Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
| ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 410499. Environmental management not elsewhere classified |
| Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
| Byline Affiliations | School of Agricultural, Computational and Environmental Sciences |
| School of Civil Engineering and Surveying | |
| Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q56q2/development-of-copula-statistical-drought-prediction-model-using-the-standardized-precipitation-evapotranspiration-index
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