Near real-time global solar radiation forecasting at multiple time-step horizons using the long short-term memory network
Article
Article Title | Near real-time global solar radiation forecasting at multiple time-step horizons using the long short-term memory network |
---|---|
ERA Journal ID | 123161 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Huynh, Anh Ngoc‐Lan (Author), Deo, Ravinesh C. (Author), An-Vo, Duc-Anh (Author), Ali, Mumtaz (Author), Raj, Nawin (Author) and Abdulla, Shahab (Author) |
Journal Title | Energies |
Journal Citation | 13 (14) |
Article Number | 3517 |
Number of Pages | 30 |
Year | 2020 |
Publisher | MDPI AG |
Place of Publication | Switzerland |
ISSN | 1996-1073 |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.3390/en13143517 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/14/3517 |
Abstract | This paper aims to develop the long short-term memory (LSTM) network modelling strategy based on deep learning principles, tailored for the very short-term, near-real-time global solar radiation (GSR) forecasting. To build the prescribed LSTM model, the partial autocorrelation function is applied to the high resolution, 1 min scaled solar radiation dataset that generates statistically significant lagged predictor variables describing the antecedent behaviour of GSR. The LSTM algorithm is adopted to capture the short- and the long-term dependencies within the GSR data series patterns to accurately predict the future GSR at 1, 5, 10, 15, and 30 min forecasting horizons. This objective model is benchmarked at a solar energy resource rich study site (Bac-Ninh, Vietnam) against the competing counterpart methods employing other deep learning, a statistical model, a single hidden layer and a machine learning-based model. The LSTM model generates satisfactory predictions at multiple-time step horizons, achieving a correlation coefficient exceeding 0.90, outperforming all of the counterparts. In accordance with robust statistical metrics and visual analysis of all tested data, the study ascertains the practicality of the proposed LSTM approach to generate reliable GSR forecasts. The Diebold–Mariano statistic test also shows LSTM outperforms the counterparts in most cases. The study confirms the practical utility of LSTM in renewable energy studies, and broadly in energy-monitoring devices tailored for other energy variables (e.g., hydro and wind energy). |
Keywords | solar radiation; long short-term memory network; near real-time solar radiation forecasting |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 460510. Recommender systems |
410499. Environmental management not elsewhere classified | |
Byline Affiliations | School of Sciences |
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | |
Deakin University | |
Open Access College | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q5w34/near-real-time-global-solar-radiation-forecasting-at-multiple-time-step-horizons-using-the-long-short-term-memory-network
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Castillo-Boton, C., Casillas-Perez, D., Casanova-Mateo, C., Ghimire, S., Cerro-Prada, E., Gutierrez, P. A., Deo, R. C. and Salcedo-sanz, S.. 2022. "Machine learning regression and classification methods for fog events prediction." Atmospheric Research. 272, pp. 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106157Quantum Artificial Intelligence Predictions Enhancement by Improving Signal Processing
Riaz, Farina, Abdulla, Shahab, Ni, Wei, Radfar, Mohsen, Deo, Ravinesh and Hopkins, Susan. 2022. "Quantum Artificial Intelligence Predictions Enhancement by Improving Signal Processing." Quantum Australia Conference 2022. Online 23 - 25 Feb 2022 Toowoomba, Australia. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.34754.66245NEXUS project: pathways for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation and climate change adaptation of Australian Livestock Industries
Cullen, Brendan R., Harrison, Matthew T., Mayberry, Dianne, Cobon, David H., An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Christie, Karen M., Bilotto, Franco, Talukder, Saranika, Perry, Lindsey, Eckard, Richard J. and Davison, Thomas M.. 2022. "NEXUS project: pathways for greenhouse gas emissions mitigation and climate change adaptation of Australian Livestock Industries." 8th International Greenhouse Gas and Animal Agriculture Conference (GGAA 2022). Orlando, United States 05 - 09 Jun 2022 Florida, United States.Forecasting Daily Flood Water Level Using Hybrid Advanced Machine Learning Based Time‑Varying Filtered Empirical Mode Decomposition Approach
Jamei, Mehdi, Ali, Mumtaz, Malik, Anurag, Prasad, Ramendra, Abdulla, Shahab and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Forecasting Daily Flood Water Level Using Hybrid Advanced Machine Learning Based Time‑Varying Filtered Empirical Mode Decomposition Approach." Water Resources Management. 36 (12), p. 4637–4676. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-022-03270-6Nuanced assessment of livelihood resilience through the intersectional lens of gender and ethnicity: evidence from small-scale farming communities in the upland regions of Vietnam
Tran, Van Thanh, An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Cockfield, Geoff. 2022. "Nuanced assessment of livelihood resilience through the intersectional lens of gender and ethnicity: evidence from small-scale farming communities in the upland regions of Vietnam." Journal of Rural Studies. 92, pp. 68-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2022.03.011Deep learning CNN-LSTM-MLP hybrid fusion model for feature optimizations and daily solar radiation prediction
Ghimire, Sujan, Deo, Ravinesh C., Casillas-Perez, David, Salcedo-sanz, Sancho, Sharma, Ekta and Ali, Mumtaz. 2022. "Deep learning CNN-LSTM-MLP hybrid fusion model for feature optimizations and daily solar radiation prediction." Measurement. 202, pp. 1-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2022.111759Basin management inspiration from impacts of alternating dry and wet conditions on water production and carbon uptake in Murray-Darling Basin
Lu, Zhixiang, Feng, Qi, Wei, Yongping, Zhao, Yan, Deo, Ravinesh C., Xie, Jiali, Zhou, Sha, Zhu, Meng and Xu, Min. 2022. "Basin management inspiration from impacts of alternating dry and wet conditions on water production and carbon uptake in Murray-Darling Basin." Science of the Total Environment. 851 (Part 2), pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158359Introductory Engineering Mathematics Students’ Weighted Score Predictions Utilising a Novel Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Model
Ahmed, Abul Abrar Masrur, Deo, Ravinesh C., Ghimire, Sujan, Downs, Nathan J., Devi, Aruna, Barua, Prabal D. and Yaseen, Zaher M.. 2022. "Introductory Engineering Mathematics Students’ Weighted Score Predictions Utilising a Novel Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline Model." Sustainability. 14 (17), pp. 1-27. https://doi.org/10.3390/su141711070Kernel Ridge Regression Hybrid Method for Wheat Yield Prediction with Satellite-Derived Predictors
Ahmed, A. A. Masrur, Sharma, Ekta, Jui, S. Janifer Jabin, Deo, Ravinesh C., Nguyen-Huy, Thong and Ali, Mumtaz. 2022. "Kernel Ridge Regression Hybrid Method for Wheat Yield Prediction with Satellite-Derived Predictors." Remote Sensing. 14 (5), pp. 1-24. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14051136Cloud Affected Solar UV Predictions with Three-Phase Wavelet Hybrid Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network Multi-Step Forecast System
Prasad, Salvin S., Deo, Ravinesh C., Downs, Nathan, Igoe, Damien, Parisi, Alfio V. and Soar, Jeffrey. 2022. "Cloud Affected Solar UV Predictions with Three-Phase Wavelet Hybrid Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Network Multi-Step Forecast System." IEEE Access. 10, pp. 24704-24720. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2022.3153475Integrative artificial intelligence models for Australian coastal sediment lead prediction: An investigation of in-situ measurements and meteorological parameters effects
Bhagat, Suraj Kumar, Tiyasha, Tiyasha, Kumar, Adarsh, Malik, Tabarak, Jawad, Ali H., Khedher, Khaled Mohamed, Deo, Ravinesh C. and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Integrative artificial intelligence models for Australian coastal sediment lead prediction: An investigation of in-situ measurements and meteorological parameters effects." Journal of Environmental Management. 309, pp. 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2022.114711Assessment and Prediction of Sea Level Trend in the South Pacific Region
Raj, Nawin, Gharineiat, Zahra, Ahmed, Abul Abrar Masrur and Stepanyants, Yury. 2022. "Assessment and Prediction of Sea Level Trend in the South Pacific Region." Remote Sensing. 14 (4), pp. 1-25. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14040986An Eigenvalues-Based Covariance Matrix Bootstrap Model Integrated With Support Vector Machines for Multichannel EEG Signals Analysis
Al-Hadeethi, Hanan, Abdulla, Shahab, Diykh, Mohammed, Deo, Ravinesh C. and Green, Jonathan H.. 2022. "An Eigenvalues-Based Covariance Matrix Bootstrap Model Integrated With Support Vector Machines for Multichannel EEG Signals Analysis." Frontiers in Neuroinformatics. 15, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.3389/fninf.2021.808339Stacked LSTM Sequence-to-Sequence Autoencoder with Feature Selection for Daily Solar Radiation Prediction: A Review and New Modeling Results
Ghimire, Sujan, Deo, Ravinesh C., Wang, Hua, Al-Musaylh, Mohanad S., Casillas-Perez, David and Salcedo-sanz, Sancho. 2022. "Stacked LSTM Sequence-to-Sequence Autoencoder with Feature Selection for Daily Solar Radiation Prediction: A Review and New Modeling Results." Energies. 15 (3), pp. 1-39. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15031061Texture analysis based graph approach for automatic detection of neonatal seizure from multi-channel EEG signals
Diykh, Mohammed, Miften, Firas Sabar, Abdulla, Shahab, Deo, Ravinesh C., Siuly, Siuly, Green, Jonathan H. and Oudah, Atheer Y.. 2022. "Texture analysis based graph approach for automatic detection of neonatal seizure from multi-channel EEG signals." Measurement. 190 (110731), pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2022.110731Air quality monitoring based on chemical and meteorological drivers: Application of a novel data filtering-based hybridized deep learning model
Jamei, Mehdi, Ali, Mumtaz, Malik, Anurag, Karbasi, Masoud, Sharma, Ekta and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Air quality monitoring based on chemical and meteorological drivers: Application of a novel data filtering-based hybridized deep learning model." Journal of Cleaner Production. 374, pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.134011An improved calibration technique to address high dimensionality and non-linearity in integrated groundwater and surface water models
Rafiei, Vahid, Nejadhashemi, A. Pouyan, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Bailey, Ryan T. and An-Vo, Duc-Anh. 2022. "An improved calibration technique to address high dimensionality and non-linearity in integrated groundwater and surface water models." Environmental Modelling and Software. 149, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105312Study on the Development of Neutrosophic Triplet Ring and Neutrosophic Triplet Field
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An-Vo, Duc-Anh, Radanielson, Ando Mariot, Mushtaq, Shahbaz, Reardon-Smith, Kate and Hewitt, Chris. 2021. "A framework for assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasting in key agricultural decisions." Climate Services. 22, pp. 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100234Domino effect of climate change over two millennia in ancient China’s Hexi Corridor
Feng, Qi, Yan, Linshan, Deo, Ravinesh C., AghaKouchak, Amir, Adamowski, Jan F., Stone, Roger, Yin, Zhenliang, Liu, Wei, Si, Jianhua, Wen, Xiaohu, Zhu, Meng and Cao, Shixiong. 2019. "Domino effect of climate change over two millennia in ancient China’s Hexi Corridor." Nature Sustainability. 2, pp. 957-961. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-019-0397-9Developing Smart Self Orienting Solar Tracker for Mobile PV Power Generation Systems
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Ethteram, Mohammad, Mousavi, Sayed-Farhad, Karami, Hojat, Farzin, Saeed, Deo, Ravinesh, Othman, Faridah Binti, Chau, Kwok-Wing, Sarkamaryan, Saeed, Singh, Vijay P. and El-Shafie, Ahmed. 2018. "Bat algorithm for dam–reservoir operation." Environmental Earth Sciences. 77 (13), pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7662-5Characteristics of ecosystem water use efficiency in a desert riparian forest
Ma, Xiaohong, Feng, Qi, Su, Yonghong, Yu, Tengfei and Deo, Ravinesh C.. 2018. "Characteristics of ecosystem water use efficiency in a desert riparian forest." Environmental Earth Sciences. 77 (358). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7518-zThe influence of climatic inputs on stream-flow pattern forecasting: case study of Upper Senegal River
Diop, Lamine, Bodian, Ansoumana, Djaman, Koffi, Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, Deo, Ravinesh C., El-Shafie, Ahmed and Brown, Larry C.. 2018. "The influence of climatic inputs on stream-flow pattern forecasting: case study of Upper Senegal River." Environmental Earth Sciences. 77 (5). https://doi.org/10.1007/s1266Uncertainty assessment of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model with implementation of the novel hybrid MLP-FFA method for prediction of biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen: a case study of Langat River
Raheli, Bahare, Aalami, Mohammad Taghi, El-Shafie, Ahmed, Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali and Deo, Ravinesh C.. 2017. "Uncertainty assessment of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model with implementation of the novel hybrid MLP-FFA method for prediction of biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen: a case study of Langat River." Environmental Earth Sciences. 76 (14). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-6842-z
The value of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural decision-making
Reardon-Smith, Kate and An-Vo, Duc-Anh. 2022. "The value of seasonal climate forecasting in agricultural decision-making." African Technical Workshop on Crop Models and coupling with Numerical Weather and Seasonal to Sub-seasonal Forecasts. Niamey, Niger 13 - 15 Jun 2022Forecasting weekly reference evapotranspiration using Auto Encoder Decoder Bidirectional LSTM model hybridized with a Boruta-CatBoost input optimizer
Karbasi, Masoud, Jamei, Mehdi, Ali, Mumtaz, Malik, Anurag and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Forecasting weekly reference evapotranspiration using Auto Encoder Decoder Bidirectional LSTM model hybridized with a Boruta-CatBoost input optimizer." Computers and Electronics in Agriculture. 198, pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compag.2022.107121Neutrosophic Recommender System for Medical Diagnosis Based on Algebraic Similarity Measure and Clustering
Thanh, Nguyen Dang, Son, Le Hoang and Ali, Mumtaz. 2017. "Neutrosophic Recommender System for Medical Diagnosis Based on Algebraic Similarity Measure and Clustering." 2017 IEEE International Conference on Fuzzy Systems (FUZZ-IEEE). Naples, Italy 09 - 12 Jul 2017 Piscataway, United States. https://doi.org/10.1109/FUZZ-IEEE.2017.8015387An intuitionistic fuzzy clustering algorithm based on a new correlation coefficient with application in medical diagnosis
Thao, Nguyen Xuan, Ali, Mumtaz and Smarandache, Florentin. 2019. "An intuitionistic fuzzy clustering algorithm based on a new correlation coefficient with application in medical diagnosis." Journal of Intelligent and Fuzzy Systems. 36 (1), pp. 189-198. https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-181084Linguistic Approaches to Interval Complex Neutrosophic Sets in Decision Making
Dat, Luu Quoc, Thong, Nguyen Tho, Son, Le Hoang, Ali, Mumtaz, Smarandache, Florentin, Abdel-Basset, Mohamed and Long, Hoang Viet. 2019. "Linguistic Approaches to Interval Complex Neutrosophic Sets in Decision Making." IEEE Access. 7, pp. 38902-38917. https://doi.org/10.1109/ACCESS.2019.2902841Dynamic interval valued neutrosophic set: Modeling decision making in dynamic environments
Thong, Nguyen Tho, Dat, Luu Quoc, Son, Le Hoang, Hoa, Nguyen Dinh, Ali, Mumtaz and Smarandache, Florentin. 2019. "Dynamic interval valued neutrosophic set: Modeling decision making in dynamic environments." Computers in Industry. 108, pp. 45-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compind.2019.02.009Fuzzy and neutrosophic modeling for link prediction in social networks
Tuan, Tran Manh, Chuan, Pham Minh, Ali, Mumtaz, Ngan, Tran Thi, Mittal, Mamta and Son, Le Hoang. 2019. "Fuzzy and neutrosophic modeling for link prediction in social networks." Evolving Systems. 10, pp. 629-634. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12530-018-9251-yNovel hybrid deep learning model for satellite based PM10 forecasting in the most polluted Australian hotspots
Sharma, Ekta, Deo, Ravinesh C., Soar, Jeffrey, Prasad, Ramendra, Parisi, Alfio V. and Raj, Nawin. 2022. "Novel hybrid deep learning model for satellite based PM10 forecasting in the most polluted Australian hotspots." Atmospheric Environment. 279, pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119111New double decomposition deep learning methods for river water level forecasting
Ahmed, A. A. Masrur, Deo, Ravinesh C., Ghahramani, Afshin, Feng, Qi, Raj, Nawin, Yin, Zhenliang and Yang, Linshan. 2022. "New double decomposition deep learning methods for river water level forecasting." Science of the Total Environment. 831, pp. 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.154722Development and evaluation of hybrid deep learning long short-term memory network model for pan evaporation estimation trained with satellite and ground-based data
Jayasinghe, W. J. M. Lakmini Prarthana, Deo, Ravinesh C., Ghahramani, Afshin, Ghimire, Sujan and Raj, Nawin. 2022. "Development and evaluation of hybrid deep learning long short-term memory network model for pan evaporation estimation trained with satellite and ground-based data." Journal of Hydrology. 607, pp. 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127534Innovative value assessment for seasonal climate forecasting
An-Vo, Duc-Anh. 2021. "Innovative value assessment for seasonal climate forecasting." 2nd Asia-Pacific Agriculture Climate Services Week. Bangkok, Thailand Bangkok, Thailand.A hybrid architecture for resolving cryptographic issues in Internet of Things (IoT), employing quantum computing supremacy
Shamshad, Shuhab, Riaz, Farina, Riaz, Rabia, Rizvi, Sanam Shahla and Abdulla, Shahab. 2021. "A hybrid architecture for resolving cryptographic issues in Internet of Things (IoT), employing quantum computing supremacy." 12th International Conference on Information and Communication Technology Convergence (ICTC 2021). Jeju Island, Korea, Republic of Korea 20 - 22 Oct 2021 Jeju Island, Korea, Republic of Korea. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICTC52510.2021.9621208A Novel Alcoholic EEG Signals Classification Approach Based on AdaBoost k-means Coupled with Statistical Model
Diykh, Mohammed, Abdulla, Shahab, Oudah, Atheer Y., Marhoon, Haydar Abdulameer and Siuly, Siuly. 2021. "A Novel Alcoholic EEG Signals Classification Approach Based on AdaBoost k-means Coupled with Statistical Model ." Siuly, Siuly, Wang, Hua, Chen, Lu, Guo, Yanhui and Xing, Chunxiao (ed.) 10th International Conference on Health Information Science (HIS 2021). Melbourne, Australia 25 - 28 Oct 2021 Cham, Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-90885-0_8Spatiotemporal Hybrid Random Forest Model for Tea Yield Prediction Using Satellite-Derived Variables
Jui, S. Janifer Jabin, Ahmed, A. A. Masrur, Bose, Aditi, Raj, Nawin, Sharma, Ekta, Soar, Jeffrey and Chowdhury, Md Wasique Islam. 2022. "Spatiotemporal Hybrid Random Forest Model for Tea Yield Prediction Using Satellite-Derived Variables." Remote Sensing. 14 (3), pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14030805Determinant of Covariance Matrix Model Coupled with AdaBoost Classification Algorithm for EEG Seizure Detection
Al-Hadeethi, Hanan, Abdulla, Shahab, Diykh, Mohammed and Green, Jonathan H.. 2021. "Determinant of Covariance Matrix Model Coupled with AdaBoost Classification Algorithm for EEG Seizure Detection." Diagnostics. 12 (1), pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics12010074Creating streamtubes based on mass conservative streamlines
Raj, Nawin and Li, Zhenquan. 2008. "Creating streamtubes based on mass conservative streamlines." International Journal of Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 2 (1), pp. 41-45. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1081061Prediction of Sea Level with Vertical Land Movement Correction Using Deep Learning
Raj, Nawin. 2022. "Prediction of Sea Level with Vertical Land Movement Correction Using Deep Learning." Mathematics. 10 (23). https://doi.org/10.3390/math10234533Multi-step daily forecasting of reference evapotranspiration for different climates of India: A modern multivariate complementary technique reinforced with ridge regression feature selection
Malik, Anurag, Jamei, Mehdi, Ali, Mumtaz, Prasad, Ramendra, Karbasi, Masoud and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Multi-step daily forecasting of reference evapotranspiration for different climates of India: A modern multivariate complementary technique reinforced with ridge regression feature selection." Agricultural Water Management. 272. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107812