A double decomposition-based modelling approach to forecast weekly solar radiation
Article
Article Title | A double decomposition-based modelling approach to forecast weekly solar radiation |
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ERA Journal ID | 4067 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Prasad, Ramendra, Ali, Mumtaz, Xiang, Yong and Khan, Huma |
Journal Title | Renewable Energy |
Journal Citation | 152, pp. 9-22 |
Number of Pages | 14 |
Year | Jun 2020 |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
ISSN | 0960-1481 |
1879-0682 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2020.01.005 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148120300069 |
Abstract | To meet the future energy demand and avert any looming crises, efforts are being carried out to utilize sustainable and renewable energy resources. In this paper, the naturally occurring non-linearity and non-stationarity deficiencies within the climatological predictors to forecast solar radiation (Rdn) are resolved via a multivariate empirical mode decomposition method (MEMD). First, a set of antecedent weekly lags at timescale (t-1) of input datasets were collated and then were divided into training and testing subsets. The MEMD method is restricted to dissolve the training and testing climatic data independently into intrinsic modes functions (IMFs). As the numbers of total IMFs were very large, the singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithm is accustomed for dimensionality reduction simultaneously capturing the most relevant oscillatory features embedded within the IMFs. Finally, the random forest (RF) model is applied to forecast Rdn at selected solar-rich regions in Australia. The resulting hybrid MEMD-SVD-RF model was established as a consequence of the aforementioned modelling strategy. The results are benchmarked with other comparative models. The hybrid MEMD-SVD-RF model generates better and reliable forecasts having significant implications for renewable and sustainable energy applications and resources management. |
Keywords | Solar radiation; Multivariate ensemble mode decomposition; MEMD; SVD; Random forest; Energy |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 461199. Machine learning not elsewhere classified |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | University of Fiji, Fiji |
Deakin University | |
University of Management and Technology, Pakistan |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/w2zvw/a-double-decomposition-based-modelling-approach-to-forecast-weekly-solar-radiation
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