Feedback modelling of the impacts of drought: A case study in coffee production systems in Viet Nam
Article
Pham, Yen, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, Mushtaq, Shahbaz and Deo, Ravinesh C.. 2020. "Feedback modelling of the impacts of drought: A case study in coffee production systems in Viet Nam." Climate Risk Management. 30, pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100255
| Article Title | Feedback modelling of the impacts of drought: A case study in coffee production systems in Viet Nam |
|---|---|
| ERA Journal ID | 200297 |
| Article Category | Article |
| Authors | Pham, Yen (Author), Reardon-Smith, Kathryn (Author), Mushtaq, Shahbaz (Author) and Deo, Ravinesh C. (Author) |
| Journal Title | Climate Risk Management |
| Journal Citation | 30, pp. 1-17 |
| Article Number | 100255 |
| Number of Pages | 17 |
| Year | 2020 |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Place of Publication | Netherlands |
| ISSN | 2212-0963 |
| Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100255 |
| Web Address (URL) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212096320300450 |
| Abstract | Drought is a major cause of crop failure and livelihood insecurity, affecting millions of people across the world. A changing climate, increasing population and economic growth are exacerbating water shortages, further interrupting agricultural production. Assessing and minimizing the impacts of drought require a thorough understanding of the interrelationships and interactions between the climate system, ecosystems and human systems. In this paper, we apply causal loop modelling grounded in systems thinking theory to examine the interdependencies and feedback processes among factors associated with drought that impact crop production using a case study of Robusta coffee production systems in Viet Nam – the world’s second-largest coffee producing country. Our model, underpinned by qualitative data from consultation with a range of stakeholders, indicates that water depletion affecting coffee cultivation is not solely attributed to rainfall insufficiency but an outcome of complex interactions between climate and socio-economic systems. Our analysis highlights that uncontrollable coffee expansion, largely at the expense of forested areas, is partly the unintended consequence of policy decisions, including those encouraging migration and perennial crop development. Growing water demand in the region, including the demand for irrigation water driven by the ever-increasing area under coffee cultivation, as well as inefficient irrigation practices are placing significant pressure on water resources. A changing climate may exacerbate the problem, further impacting coffee cultivation, unless adaptation practices occur. A number of potential interventions are suggested, including explicit zoning of coffee-growing areas; awareness raising for wide adoption of optimal irrigation practices; converting Robusta coffee monocultures to diversified systems; and strictly protecting existing forests coupled with afforestation and reforestation. These interventions should be simultaneously implemented in order to adequately address drought and water scarcity for coffee production and build resilience to climate and market risks. |
| Keywords | System dynamics; Causal loop diagram; Conceptual modelling; Feedback loops; Mental models; Stakeholder engagement |
| Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
| ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling |
| 410404. Environmental management | |
| 300402. Agro-ecosystem function and prediction | |
| Byline Affiliations | Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences |
| Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | |
| School of Sciences | |
| Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
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Ahmadianfar, Iman, Noori, Ramzia Majeed, Togun, Hussein, Falah, Mayadah W., Homod, Raad Z., Fu, Minglei, Halder, Bijay, Deo, Ravinesh and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Multi-strategy Slime Mould Algorithm for hydropower multi-reservoir systems optimization." Knowledge-Based Systems. 250, pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.knosys.2022.109048Suspended sediment load modeling using advanced hybrid rotation forest based elastic network approach
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Ali, Mumtaz, Deo, Ravinesh C., Xiang, Yong, Prasad, Ramendra, Li, Jianxin, Farooque, Aitazaz and Yaseen, Zaher Mundher. 2022. "Coupled online sequential extreme learning machine model with ant colony optimization algorithm for wheat yield prediction." Scientific Reports. 12 (1), pp. 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-09482-5Forecasting solar photosynthetic photon flux density under cloud cover effects: novel predictive model using convolutional neural network integrated with long short-term memory network
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Ma, Xiaohong, Feng, Qi, Su, Yonghong, Yu, Tengfei and Deo, Ravinesh C.. 2018. "Characteristics of ecosystem water use efficiency in a desert riparian forest." Environmental Earth Sciences. 77 (358). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-018-7518-zThe influence of climatic inputs on stream-flow pattern forecasting: case study of Upper Senegal River
Diop, Lamine, Bodian, Ansoumana, Djaman, Koffi, Yaseen, Zaher Mundher, Deo, Ravinesh C., El-Shafie, Ahmed and Brown, Larry C.. 2018. "The influence of climatic inputs on stream-flow pattern forecasting: case study of Upper Senegal River." Environmental Earth Sciences. 77 (5). https://doi.org/10.1007/s1266Uncertainty assessment of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model with implementation of the novel hybrid MLP-FFA method for prediction of biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen: a case study of Langat River
Raheli, Bahare, Aalami, Mohammad Taghi, El-Shafie, Ahmed, Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali and Deo, Ravinesh C.. 2017. "Uncertainty assessment of the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network model with implementation of the novel hybrid MLP-FFA method for prediction of biochemical oxygen demand and dissolved oxygen: a case study of Langat River." Environmental Earth Sciences. 76 (14). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-017-6842-z