Early flowering changes robusta coffee yield responses to climate stress and managementv
Article
Article Title | Early flowering changes robusta coffee yield responses to climate stress and managementv |
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ERA Journal ID | 3551 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Kath, Jarrod (Author), Byrareddy, Vivekananda Mittahalli (Author), Reardon-Smith, Kathryn (Author) and Mushtaq, Shahbaz (Author) |
Journal Title | Science of the Total Environment |
Journal Citation | 856 (Part 1), pp. 1-12 |
Article Number | 158836 |
Number of Pages | 12 |
Year | 2023 |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Place of Publication | Netherlands |
ISSN | 0048-9697 |
1879-1026 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158836 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969722059356 |
Abstract | A shift towards earlier flowering is a widely noted consequence of climate change for the world's plants. However, whether early flowering changes the way in which plants respond to climate stress, and in turn plant yield, remains largely unexplored. Using 10 years of flowering time and yield observations (Total N = 5580) from 558 robusta coffee (Coffea canephora) farms across Vietnam we used structural equation modelling (SEM) to examine the drivers of flowering day anomalies and the consequent effects of this on coffee climate stress sensitivity and management responses (i.e. irrigation and fertilization). SEM allowed us to model the cascading and interacting effects of differences in flowering time, growing season length and climate stress. Warm nights were the main driver of early flowering (i.e. flowering day anomalies <0), which in turn corresponded to longer growing seasons. Early flowering was linked to greater sensitivity of yield to temperature during flowering (i.e. early in the season). In contrast, when late flowering occurred yield was most sensitive to temperature and rainfall later in the growing season, after flowering and fruit development. The positive effects of tree age and fertilizer on yield, apparent under late flowering conditions, were absent when flowering occurred early. Late flowering models predicted yields under early flowering conditions poorly (a 50 % reduction in cross-validated R2 of 0.54 to 0.27). Likewise, models based on early flowering were unable to predict yields well under late flowering conditions (a 75 % reduction in cross-validated R2, from 0.58 to 0.14). Our results show that early flowering changes the sensitivity of coffee production to climate stress and management and in turn our ability to predict yield. Our results indicate that changes in plant phenology need to be taken into account in order to more accurately assess climate risk and management impacts on plant performance and crop yield. |
Keywords | Phenology; Coffee; Flowering; Climate stress; Climate change Irrigation; Fertilizer |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 410299. Ecological applications not elsewhere classified |
410102. Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation | |
300202. Agricultural land management | |
Public Notes | File reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher/author. |
Byline Affiliations | Centre for Applied Climate Sciences |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q7w7z/early-flowering-changes-robusta-coffee-yield-responses-to-climate-stress-and-managementv
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