Synchronous climate hazards pose an increasing challenge to global coffee production

Article

Mittahalli Byrareddy, V. and Kath, J.. 2023. "Synchronous climate hazards pose an increasing challenge to global coffee production." PLOS CLIMATE. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000134
Article Title

Synchronous climate hazards pose an
increasing challenge to global coffee
production

Article CategoryArticle
AuthorsMittahalli Byrareddy, V. and Kath, J.
Journal TitlePLOS CLIMATE
Year2023
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000134
Abstract

Global coffee production is at risk from synchronous crop failures, characterised by wide-
spread concurrent reductions in yield occurring in multiple countries at the same time. For
other crops, previous studies have shown that synchronous failures can be forced by spa-
tially compounding climate anomalies, which in turn may be driven by large-scale climate
modes such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We provide a systematic analy-
sis of spatially compounding climate hazards relevant to global coffee production. We
identify 12 climate hazards from the literature, and assess the extent to which these haz-
ards occur and co-occur for the top 12 coffee producing regions globally. We find that the
number of climate hazards and compound events has increased in every region between
1980 and 2020. Furthermore, a clear climate change signature is evident, as the type of
hazard has shifted from overly cool conditions to overly warm. Spatially compounding haz-
ards have become particularly common in the past decade, with only one of the six most
hazardous years occurring before 2010. Our results suggest that ENSO is the primary
mode in explaining annual compound event variability, both globally and regionally. El
Niño-like sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are associated with decreased
precipitation and increased temperatures in most coffee regions, and with spatially com-
pounding warm and dry events. This relationship is reversed for La Niña-like signatures.
The Madden Julian Oscillation also shows a strong association with climate hazards to
coffee, with increased activity in the Maritime Continent related to a global increase in the
number of cold or wet hazards and a decrease in the number of warm or dry hazards. With
climate change projections showing a continued rise in temperatures in the tropics is likely,
we suggest that coffee production can expect ongoing systemic shocks in response to
spatially compounding climate hazards.

Article Publishing Charge (APC) FundingOther
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020410199. Climate change impacts and adaptation not elsewhere classified
Byline AffiliationsCentre for Applied Climate Sciences (Research)
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
School of Agriculture and Environmental Science
Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems
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Kath, Jarrod, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Le Brocque, Andi, Dafny, Elad, Dyer, Fiona, Fritz, L. and Batterham, Megan. 2013. "Groundwater depth thresholds for tree condition." 52nd Australian Society for Limnology Congress (ASL 2013): From Theory to Practice in Water Science. Canberra, Australia 02 - 05 Dec 2013 Canberra, Australia.
Groundwater decline and tree change in floodplain landscapes: identifying non-linear threshold responses in canopy condition
Kath, J., Reardon-Smith, K., Le Brocque, A. F., Dyer, F. J., Dafny, E., Fritz, L. and Batterham, M.. 2014. "Groundwater decline and tree change in floodplain landscapes: identifying non-linear threshold responses in canopy condition." Global Ecology and Conservation. 2, pp. 148-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2014.09.002
Foraging guild perturbations and ecological homogenization driven by a despotic native bird species
Howes, Alison, MacNally, Ralph, Loyn, Richard, Kath, Jarrod, Bowen, Michiala, McAlpine, Clive and Maron, Martine. 2014. "Foraging guild perturbations and ecological homogenization driven by a despotic native bird species." IBIS: The International Journal of Avian Science. 156 (2), pp. 341-354. https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.12136
An integrated model to examine the effects of sustainable diversion limits: a case study in the Lower Campaspe catchment
El Sawah, S., Kelly, R. A., Beverly, C., Stott, K., Patrick, M. J., Kath, J., Croke, B. F. W., Qureshi, M. E., Courtney-Barrer, B., Asher, M. J., Roberts, A. and Jakeman, A. J.. 2013. "An integrated model to examine the effects of sustainable diversion limits: a case study in the Lower Campaspe catchment." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.K3.elsawah
Integrating hydrology and land use to understand the ecology of floodplain wetlands in the Condamine Catchment, southern Queensland, Australia
Kath, Jarrod Michael. 2012. Integrating hydrology and land use to understand the ecology of floodplain wetlands in the Condamine Catchment, southern Queensland, Australia. PhD Thesis Doctor of Philosophy. University of Southern Queensland.
Interspecific competition and small bird diversity in an urbanizing landscape
Kath, Jarrod, Maron, Martine and Dunn, Peter K.. 2009. "Interspecific competition and small bird diversity in an urbanizing landscape." Landscape and Urban Planning. 92 (2), pp. 72-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2009.02.007
Ephemeral wetlands: their ecological function and resilience and climate change
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew F. and Miller, Craig. 2008. "Ephemeral wetlands: their ecological function and resilience and climate change." 11th International Riversymposium: A Future of Extremes. Brisbane, Australia 01 - 04 Sep 2008 Brisbane, Australia.
Relative influence of habitat modification and interspecific competition on woodland bird assemblages in eastern Australia
Maron, M., Main, A., Bowen, M., Howes, A., Kath, J., Pillette, C. and McAlpine, C. A.. 2011. "Relative influence of habitat modification and interspecific competition on woodland bird assemblages in eastern Australia." Emu: austral ornithology. 111 (1), pp. 40-51. https://doi.org/10.1071/MU09108
Different landscape factors explain establishment and persistence of river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in agricultural landscapes of southeast Queensland
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew F., Miller, Craig, Leyer, Ilona and Mosner, Eva. 2010. "Different landscape factors explain establishment and persistence of river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in agricultural landscapes of southeast Queensland." Lonsdale, Mark (ed.) 2010 Conference of the Ecological Society of Australia (ESA 2010). Canberra, Australia 06 - 10 Dec 2010 Alice Springs, Australia. Ecological Society of Australia.
Mapping habitat of threatened reptiles in Western Downs, Queensland: a spatial modelling approach using 'presence-only' occurrence data
Apan, Armando, Phinn, Stuart, McAlpine, Clive and Kath, Jarrod. 2010. "Mapping habitat of threatened reptiles in Western Downs, Queensland: a spatial modelling approach using 'presence-only' occurrence data." Queensland Surveying and Spatial Conference 2010 (QSSC 2010). Brisbane, Australia 01 - 03 Sep 2010 Brisbane, Australia.
Eco-hydrology of dynamic wetlands in an Australian agricultural landscape: a whole of system approach for understanding climate change impacts
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew and Miller, Craig. 2010. "Eco-hydrology of dynamic wetlands in an Australian agricultural landscape: a whole of system approach for understanding climate change impacts." BALWOIS 2010: Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support. Ohrid, Macedonia 25 - 29 May 2010 Macedonia.
Wetland hydrology in an agricultural landscape: implications for biodiversity
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew and Miller, Craig. 2010. "Wetland hydrology in an agricultural landscape: implications for biodiversity." BALWOIS 2010: Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support. Ohrid, Macedonia 25 - 29 May 2010 Macedonia.
Resilience of ephemeral wetlands in production landscapes
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew F. and Miller, Craig. 2008. "Resilience of ephemeral wetlands in production landscapes." McArthur, Clare (ed.) 2008 Conference of the Ecological Society of Australia (ESA 2008). Sydney, Australia 01 - 05 Dec 2008 Canberra, Australia. Ecological Society of Australia.
Resilience of temporary wetlands in production landscapes and potential impacts of climate change
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew F. and Miller, Craig. 2009. "Resilience of temporary wetlands in production landscapes and potential impacts of climate change." James, Craig D. (ed.) INTECOL 2010: Ecology in a Changing Climate: Two Hemispheres, One Globe. Brisbane, Australia 16 - 21 Aug 2009 Australia.