Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for Coffea canephora var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia

Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a
Proposal to Prepare for Coffea canephora var. Robusta
Plantations in Colombia

Colombia, one of the world’s leading coffee suppliers, is experiencing a decline in its
production capacity due to climate change, resulting in fewer suitable areas for growing its mild
coffee varieties. The traditional Coffea arabica cultivation regions in the Andes are surrounded by high
biodiversity, which cannot and should not be replaced by other agricultural activities. This situation
has led to the consideration of cultivating Coffea canephora var. Robusta in Colombia. Identifying
areas with the highest productive potential under current and future climate scenarios is necessary.
Our objective was to pinpoint regions with the greatest biophysical and socio-economic potential
for Robusta coffee cultivation in Colombia. To achieve this, we utilized an integrated model that
combines climate suitability assessment and crop yield projections under current and future climate
scenarios while accounting for soil limitations, pest risks, and socio-economic conditions. Our results
indicated that most potential areas are at elevations below 600 m, thus avoiding interference with
traditional and established Arabica coffee regions in Colombia. Under current climate scenarios,
potential areas are located in the foothills along the eastern Andean ranges, the high plains of the
Orinoquía region, and the humid parts of the Caribbean region. Under a global warming scenario
with a 2 ◦C temperature increase, significant negative impacts on productive potential are projected
for the Caribbean region. Consequently, the foothills of the eastern Andes and the high plains of the
Orinoquía region emerge as the most promising areas for cultivating Coffea canephora var. Robusta.