Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for Coffea canephora var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia

Paper

Salinas Velandia, Diego Alejandro, Cardona, William Andres, González-Orozco, Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez, Araujo-Carrillo, Gustavo Alfonso, Kath, Jarrod, Rahn, Eric, Mittahalli Byrareddy, Vivekananda and Porcel, Mario. 2024. "Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for Coffea canephora var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia ." Kath, J. (ed.) International Coffee Convention (ICC) 2024. Mannheim, Germany 17 - 18 Oct 2024 Switzerland. MDPI AG. https://doi.org/10.3390/ICC2024-18168
Paper/Presentation Title

Navigating Climate Challenges: Strategic Spatial Modelling as a Proposal to Prepare for Coffea canephora var. Robusta Plantations in Colombia

Presentation TypePaper
AuthorsSalinas Velandia, Diego Alejandro, Cardona, William Andres, González-Orozco, Carlos Eduardo Gonzalez, Araujo-Carrillo, Gustavo Alfonso, Kath, Jarrod, Rahn, Eric, Mittahalli Byrareddy, Vivekananda and Porcel, Mario
EditorsKath, J.
Journal or Proceedings TitleProceedings
Journal Citation109 (1)
Article Number42
Number of Pages2
Year2024
PublisherMDPI AG
Place of PublicationSwitzerland
ISSN2504-3900
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.3390/ICC2024-18168
Web Address (URL) of Paperhttps://www.mdpi.com/2504-3900/109/1/42
Web Address (URL) of Conference Proceedingshttps://www.mdpi.com/2504-3900/109/1
Conference/EventInternational Coffee Convention (ICC) 2024
Event Details
International Coffee Convention (ICC) 2024
Delivery
In person
Event Date
17 to end of 18 Oct 2024
Event Location
Mannheim, Germany
Event Web Address (URL)
Abstract

Colombia, one of the world’s leading coffee suppliers, is experiencing a decline in its production capacity due to climate change, resulting in fewer suitable areas for growing its mild coffee varieties. The traditional Coffea arabica cultivation regions in the Andes are surrounded by high biodiversity, which cannot and should not be replaced by other agricultural activities. This situation has led to the consideration of cultivating Coffea canephora var. Robusta in Colombia. Identifying areas with the highest productive potential under current and future climate scenarios is necessary. Our objective was to pinpoint regions with the greatest biophysical and socio-economic potential for Robusta coffee cultivation in Colombia. To achieve this, we utilized an integrated model that combines climate suitability assessment and crop yield projections under current and future climate scenarios while accounting for soil limitations, pest risks, and socio-economic conditions. Our results indicated that most potential areas are at elevations below 600 m, thus avoiding interference with traditional and established Arabica coffee regions in Colombia. Under current climate scenarios, potential areas are located in the foothills along the eastern Andean ranges, the high plains of the Orinoquía region, and the humid parts of the Caribbean region. Under a global warming scenario with a 2 °C temperature increase, significant negative impacts on productive potential are projected for the Caribbean region. Consequently, the foothills of the eastern Andes and the high plains of the Orinoquía region emerge as the most promising areas for cultivating Coffea canephora var. Robusta.

Keywordsgeospatial analysis; biogeography; Andean region; climate resilience; crop adaptation
Article Publishing Charge (APC) FundingOther
Contains Sensitive ContentDoes not contain sensitive content
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020300205. Agricultural production systems simulation
Byline AffiliationsCorporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria (AGROSAVIA), Colombia
School of Agriculture and Environmental Science
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences
International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Colombia
Andalusian Institute of Agricultural Research and Training, Spain
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Groundwater decline and climatic variability: Implications for groundwater linked agro-ecosystems
Le Brocque, Andrew F., Kath, Jarrod, Reardon-Smith, Kate and Apan, Armando. 2016. "Groundwater decline and climatic variability: Implications for groundwater linked agro-ecosystems." 2016 Conference of the Ecological Society of Australia (ESA 2016). Fremantle, Australia 29 Nov - 02 Dec 2016 Australia.
Groundwater salinization intensifies drought impacts in forests and reduces refuge capacity
Kath, Jarrod, Powell, Sue, Reardon-Smith, Kathryn, El Sawah, Sondoss, Jakeman, Anthony J., Croke, Barry F.W. and Dyer, Fiona J.. 2015. "Groundwater salinization intensifies drought impacts in forests and reduces refuge capacity." Journal of Applied Ecology. 52 (5), pp. 1116-1125. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12495
Groundwater thresholds for drought resilience in floodplain woodlands: a case study from the northern Murray-Darling Basin
Kath, Jarrod, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Le Brocque, Andy and Dyer, Fiona. 2014. "Groundwater thresholds for drought resilience in floodplain woodlands: a case study from the northern Murray-Darling Basin." Climate Adaptation (NCCARF 2014): Future Challenges. Gold Coast, Australia 30 Sep - 02 Oct 2014 Gold Coast, Australia.
Identifying groundwater thresholds for drought resilience in floodplain tree species in the northern Murray-Darling Basin
Reardon-Smith, Kate, Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andy and Dyer, Fiona. 2014. "Identifying groundwater thresholds for drought resilience in floodplain tree species in the northern Murray-Darling Basin." Andersen, Alan (ed.) 2014 Conference of the Ecological Society of Australia (ESA 2014). Alice Springs, Australia 28 Sep - 03 Oct 2014 Canberra, Australia.
Hydrological and land use determinants of Eucalyptus camaldulensis occurrence in floodplain wetlands
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew, Leyer, Ilona and Mosner, Eva. 2014. "Hydrological and land use determinants of Eucalyptus camaldulensis occurrence in floodplain wetlands." Austral Ecology: a journal of ecology in the Southern Hemisphere. 39 (6), pp. 643-655. https://doi.org/10.1111/aec.12126
Groundwater depth thresholds for tree condition
Kath, Jarrod, Reardon-Smith, Kate, Le Brocque, Andi, Dafny, Elad, Dyer, Fiona, Fritz, L. and Batterham, Megan. 2013. "Groundwater depth thresholds for tree condition." 52nd Australian Society for Limnology Congress (ASL 2013): From Theory to Practice in Water Science. Canberra, Australia 02 - 05 Dec 2013 Canberra, Australia.
Groundwater decline and tree change in floodplain landscapes: identifying non-linear threshold responses in canopy condition
Kath, J., Reardon-Smith, K., Le Brocque, A. F., Dyer, F. J., Dafny, E., Fritz, L. and Batterham, M.. 2014. "Groundwater decline and tree change in floodplain landscapes: identifying non-linear threshold responses in canopy condition." Global Ecology and Conservation. 2, pp. 148-160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gecco.2014.09.002
Foraging guild perturbations and ecological homogenization driven by a despotic native bird species
Howes, Alison, MacNally, Ralph, Loyn, Richard, Kath, Jarrod, Bowen, Michiala, McAlpine, Clive and Maron, Martine. 2014. "Foraging guild perturbations and ecological homogenization driven by a despotic native bird species." IBIS: The International Journal of Avian Science. 156 (2), pp. 341-354. https://doi.org/10.1111/ibi.12136
An integrated model to examine the effects of sustainable diversion limits: a case study in the Lower Campaspe catchment
El Sawah, S., Kelly, R. A., Beverly, C., Stott, K., Patrick, M. J., Kath, J., Croke, B. F. W., Qureshi, M. E., Courtney-Barrer, B., Asher, M. J., Roberts, A. and Jakeman, A. J.. 2013. "An integrated model to examine the effects of sustainable diversion limits: a case study in the Lower Campaspe catchment." Piantadosi, J., Anderssen, R. S. and Boland, J. (ed.) 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM2013). Adelaide, Australia 01 - 06 Dec 2013 Australia. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand . https://doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2013.K3.elsawah
Integrating hydrology and land use to understand the ecology of floodplain wetlands in the Condamine Catchment, southern Queensland, Australia
Kath, Jarrod Michael. 2012. Integrating hydrology and land use to understand the ecology of floodplain wetlands in the Condamine Catchment, southern Queensland, Australia. PhD Thesis Doctor of Philosophy. University of Southern Queensland.
Interspecific competition and small bird diversity in an urbanizing landscape
Kath, Jarrod, Maron, Martine and Dunn, Peter K.. 2009. "Interspecific competition and small bird diversity in an urbanizing landscape." Landscape and Urban Planning. 92 (2), pp. 72-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2009.02.007
Ephemeral wetlands: their ecological function and resilience and climate change
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew F. and Miller, Craig. 2008. "Ephemeral wetlands: their ecological function and resilience and climate change." 11th International Riversymposium: A Future of Extremes. Brisbane, Australia 01 - 04 Sep 2008 Brisbane, Australia.
Relative influence of habitat modification and interspecific competition on woodland bird assemblages in eastern Australia
Maron, M., Main, A., Bowen, M., Howes, A., Kath, J., Pillette, C. and McAlpine, C. A.. 2011. "Relative influence of habitat modification and interspecific competition on woodland bird assemblages in eastern Australia." Emu: austral ornithology. 111 (1), pp. 40-51. https://doi.org/10.1071/MU09108
Different landscape factors explain establishment and persistence of river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in agricultural landscapes of southeast Queensland
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew F., Miller, Craig, Leyer, Ilona and Mosner, Eva. 2010. "Different landscape factors explain establishment and persistence of river red gum (Eucalyptus camaldulensis) in agricultural landscapes of southeast Queensland." Lonsdale, Mark (ed.) 2010 Conference of the Ecological Society of Australia (ESA 2010). Canberra, Australia 06 - 10 Dec 2010 Alice Springs, Australia. Ecological Society of Australia.
Mapping habitat of threatened reptiles in Western Downs, Queensland: a spatial modelling approach using 'presence-only' occurrence data
Apan, Armando, Phinn, Stuart, McAlpine, Clive and Kath, Jarrod. 2010. "Mapping habitat of threatened reptiles in Western Downs, Queensland: a spatial modelling approach using 'presence-only' occurrence data." Queensland Surveying and Spatial Conference 2010 (QSSC 2010). Brisbane, Australia 01 - 03 Sep 2010 Brisbane, Australia.
Eco-hydrology of dynamic wetlands in an Australian agricultural landscape: a whole of system approach for understanding climate change impacts
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew and Miller, Craig. 2010. "Eco-hydrology of dynamic wetlands in an Australian agricultural landscape: a whole of system approach for understanding climate change impacts." BALWOIS 2010: Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support. Ohrid, Macedonia 25 - 29 May 2010 Macedonia.
Wetland hydrology in an agricultural landscape: implications for biodiversity
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew and Miller, Craig. 2010. "Wetland hydrology in an agricultural landscape: implications for biodiversity." BALWOIS 2010: Water Observation and Information System for Decision Support. Ohrid, Macedonia 25 - 29 May 2010 Macedonia.
Resilience of ephemeral wetlands in production landscapes
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew F. and Miller, Craig. 2008. "Resilience of ephemeral wetlands in production landscapes." McArthur, Clare (ed.) 2008 Conference of the Ecological Society of Australia (ESA 2008). Sydney, Australia 01 - 05 Dec 2008 Canberra, Australia. Ecological Society of Australia.
Resilience of temporary wetlands in production landscapes and potential impacts of climate change
Kath, Jarrod, Le Brocque, Andrew F. and Miller, Craig. 2009. "Resilience of temporary wetlands in production landscapes and potential impacts of climate change." James, Craig D. (ed.) INTECOL 2010: Ecology in a Changing Climate: Two Hemispheres, One Globe. Brisbane, Australia 16 - 21 Aug 2009 Australia.