Evaluating management strategies for sustainable crop production under changing climate conditions: a system dynamics approach
Article
Article Title | Evaluating management strategies for sustainable crop production under changing climate conditions: a system dynamics approach |
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ERA Journal ID | 5850 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Pham, Yen Hoang (Author), Reardon-Smith, Kathryn (Author) and Deo, Ravinesh C. (Author) |
Journal Title | Journal of Environmental Management |
Journal Citation | 292 |
Article Number | 112790 |
Number of Pages | 12 |
Year | 2021 |
Publisher | Elsevier |
Place of Publication | United Kingdom |
ISSN | 0301-4797 |
1093-0191 | |
1095-8630 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112790 |
Web Address (URL) | https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301479721008525 |
Abstract | The increasing frequency and severity of drought pose significant threats to sustainable agricultural production across the world. Managing drought risks is challenging given the complexity of the interdependencies and feedback between climate drivers and socio-economic and ecological systems. To better understand the dynamics that drive the impacts of drought and water scarcity on crop production, a system dynamics model has been developed to explore complex interactions between factors in associated with drought and agricultural production, and examine how these might impact agricultural sustainability, using a case study in a coffee production system in Viet Nam. The model shows that water- and land-use drivers and their interactions with ecological and socio-economic factors play a more significant role than drought in determining the sustainability of coffee production. Results of policy scenario analyses indicate that drought conditions might exacerbate problems related to water shortages for irrigation but their impacts could be substantially minimized through applying intervention strategies, including restriction of the total area of land available for coffee production (to ~ 190,000 ha) and a 25% reduction in the irrigation amount per hectare of coffee compared to the common practices. Overall, the model findings add significant insight into drought and water resources management for sustainable crop production and the developed model can serve as a decision-support tool to inform strategic policy-making. |
Keywords | agricultural production; water management; land use; drought; water scarcity; systems thinking |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 410406. Natural resource management |
300207. Agricultural systems analysis and modelling | |
300205. Agricultural production systems simulation | |
410404. Environmental management | |
410199. Climate change impacts and adaptation not elsewhere classified | |
300203. Agricultural land planning | |
300202. Agricultural land management | |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
Byline Affiliations | Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences |
Centre for Applied Climate Sciences | |
School of Sciences | |
Institution of Origin | University of Southern Queensland |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/q65v5/evaluating-management-strategies-for-sustainable-crop-production-under-changing-climate-conditions-a-system-dynamics-approach
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