Hydropower and Climate Resilience of Nepal Himalaya: A bottom-up Hydrological Approach
Article
Article Title | Hydropower and Climate Resilience of Nepal Himalaya: A bottom-up Hydrological Approach |
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ERA Journal ID | 212310 |
Article Category | Article |
Authors | Bhattarai, Utsav, Maraseni, Tek, Devkota, Laxmi Prasad and Apan, Armando |
Journal Title | Earth Systems and Environment |
Number of Pages | 40 |
Year | 2024 |
Publisher | Springer |
ISSN | 2509-9426 |
2509-9434 | |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00529-3 |
Web Address (URL) | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-024-00529-3 |
Abstract | We modelled the hydrological response of a central Himalayan country Nepal in HEC-HMS hydrological model, disaggregating the country into three large basins (Eastern, Central and Western) and 94 sub-basins, using daily precipitation and temperature data from 176 and 106 observation stations, respectively. The models were calibrated and validated at 24 stream flow gauging stations over a 20-years period (1991–2010) and simulated for a baseline (1981–2015) and future 35 years. Six future climate scenarios were generated through a bottom-up weather generator using the Autoregressive Moving Average Method (ARMA) method which were analyzed using the hydrological models. We compared the likely impacts of changed climate in future on energy generation of 30 large run-of-river hydropower projects with respect to the Baseline. This is the first study in Nepal which has used the bottom-up method of climate change analysis at the national scale focusing on hydropower. Results indicate regional differences in hydrological responses; the Eastern Basin hydropower projects are expected to face larger variabilities in energy generation compared to the Central and Western Basin projects. However, many projects in the Central and Western basins are likely to meet only 70% of their energy targets in future. Large spatial and temporal heterogeneity in climate can be attributed to the atmospheric interaction with complex topography of the Himalayan region. This research emphasizes the need for a project evaluation framework that incorporates climate resilience into project prioritization. Moreover, this study contributes to multiple aspects by providing comprehensive insights into Nepal’s energy sector through hydroelectricity generation; and advancing assessment methodologies for sustainable energy planning and climate resilience targeted at the Himalayan region in general. |
Keywords | Bottom-up Weather Generator; Climate Change; Himalayas; Hydrological Modelling; Hydropower; Runof-river (ROR) |
Related Output | |
Is part of | Integrated climate resilient modelling of renewable energy transition in Nepal |
Contains Sensitive Content | Does not contain sensitive content |
ANZSRC Field of Research 2020 | 370299. Climate change science not elsewhere classified |
Public Notes | Files associated with this item cannot be displayed due to copyright restrictions. |
This article is part of a UniSQ Thesis by publication. See Related Output. | |
Byline Affiliations | Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment |
Water Modeling Solutions, Nepal | |
Chinese Academy of Sciences, China | |
Institute for Life Sciences and the Environment | |
Centre for Sustainable Agricultural Systems | |
Nepal Academy of Science and Technology | |
School of Surveying and Built Environment | |
University of the Philippines Diliman, Philippines |
https://research.usq.edu.au/item/zqz07/hydropower-and-climate-resilience-of-nepal-himalaya-a-bottom-up-hydrological-approach
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