Integrated climate resilient modelling of renewable energy transition in Nepal

Integrated climate resilient modelling of renewable energy transition in Nepal

There is a global consensus on the need for accelerating renewable energy transition. Developing countries have plentiful untapped feasible renewable energy which could be extremely valuable for the future. This study analyses the transition in a South Asian developing country, Nepal, by encompassing systematic literature review, quantification of energy security, policy analysis, use of machine learning on primary data to assess household energy behaviour, energy planning modelling in LEAP, and climate change analysis using hydrological modelling in HEC-HMS, through bottom-up methods. Moreover, this study develops an integrated multi-layered renewable energy transition modelling framework considering technical, socio-economic and people’s perceptions aspects. Nepal faces a ‘pseudo energy secure’ condition due to massive reliance on traditional fuels, suppressed demand, import-dominated energy systems, and marginal growth of domestic renewables. Although the energy policies development trajectory of Nepal is progressive, they remain insufficient to support the transition fully. International donations and government subsidies have often failed in the past due to the lack of a sustainable ‘energy ecosystem’ development. Socio-economy significantly influences household energy behaviour: 68% of rural and 67% of semi-urban residents resist energy changes, while 73% of urban residents are open to change but prefer fuelstacking. An integrated demand management scenario shows that up to 300 Mtoe of energy can be saved by 2050 in Nepal, with the residential sector potentially saving 53%. Energy-related emissions can be reduced from 66.6 MtCO2e (baseline) to 10.5 MtCO2e by 2050. Hydrological simulations indicate varied impacts of climate change on hydropower generation. Many run-of-river hydropower projects in the central and western regions of Nepal are likely to meet only 70% of their energy targets due to climate change. It emphasizes the need for a project evaluation framework to identify and prioritize climate-resilient hydropower schemes. It is essential that Nepal focuses on setting realistic energy targets, considering sectoral demands and resource availability, and adopts high-discharge hydropower projects for resilience to climatic variations. In addition, constructing storage-type hydropower projects at strategic locations, extending the national electricity grid to rural areas, and implementing community-awareness initiatives are vital. The comprehensive renewable energy transition modelling framework is a contribution to the global renewable energy sector addressing three UN SDGs: 7 (affordable and clean energy), 13 (climate action) and 11 (sustainable cities and communities). Additionally, development of the Energy Security Composite Index of Nepal (ESCOIN) and insights of climate change impacts on hydropower offer specific benefits to Nepal and the Himalayan region.

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